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May 21, 2007
Are You Gonna Sink or Swim?
I won’t beat around the bush here; everyone who has watched more than a few games this season knows that Carlos Delgado has been slumping badly. Prevailing wisdom around Mets blogs and news sources seems to be that he’ll snap out of it soon. However, unlike David Wright, who has blistered the ball to a .333/.382/.681 May line (through Saturday) after a rough April, Delgado has continued to struggle, especially with his power. I know we’re talking about an established franchise-caliber first baseman, but is it possible that 2006 was Delgado’s last hurrah? Delgado’s top-ten players by similarity score on baseball-reference don’t hold much optimism. Contemporary sluggers on his list such as Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Giambi have tended to turn in good Age 35 seasons, but all have battled injuries since hitting their mid-thirties. His number one comp, Albert Belle (mildly amusing given Delgado’s Clemente Award win last year and Belle’s proclivity for doing things that would earn him a Deadspin Hall Of Fame slot had he been born five years later), retired with a degenerative back condition before he even reached his Age 34 season. Juan Gonzalez battled hamstring injuries and never had more than 300 at-bats after his Age 31 season, and final contemporary comp Tino Martinez completely lost his power stroke at Age 33 and was never the same player again. Among his comps from the wayback machine, Johnny Mize had some great low at-bat seasons after his Age 34 season, but he also had the “break” of having to fight in World War II. Gil Hodges ceased being an effective player after his Age 35 season; Dick Allen ceased playing at all after his Age 35 season. The best case scenario on his list, Norm Cash, played effectively at reduced playing time until his Age 39 season. I think it’s fair to conclude that players of Delgado’s ilk tend to have high attrition rates among his age, but Delgado has been pretty durable throughout his career in comparison to his comparables, with only one season of 500 or less at-bats since establishing himself as a big league regular in 1996. What has changed this year? Delgado has fought through some minor injuries, including a sore neck and some hand bruises from being hit by pitches. He did miss a lot of spring training for the birth of his son; maybe we could stick to winter births next time Carlos? More importantly, his more advanced stats don’t seem to portend much of a change in his batting style. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is only .265 compared to a league-average of around .300, but his BABIP was low last year too (.276) and he’s not exactly going to find many groundball singles, especially since he hits so many of them into the shift. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t horribly skewed; he’s on pace for about 140 strikeouts, which wouldn’t be too far off his norms (he had 120 last year), and he’s on pace for about 70 walks, which is also about average for him (74 last year). He’s actually reduced his ground ball percentage from 42% to 37% so far this year, and his line drive percentage has gone up from 17.9% to 19%. The real shift in the batted-ball data has been his percentage of pop-ups (infield flies), which have gone from 5.4% to 9.4%. I won’t pretend to be an expert on hitting mechanics here, but I’d be really interested to see some bat speed numbers on Delgado, because subjectively it looks like he’s lost some to Father Time, and he doesn’t seem to be able to catch up to above-average fastballs anymore. Even in Delgado’s biggest moments of the season, it wasn’t about his power. He drew a bases-loaded walk and then hit a seeing-eye single to end the two close games against the Cubs this week. His double Saturday against the Yankees, his first extra-base hit in over a week, was a grounder down the first base line that someone slicker than Yankee sloth Josh Phelps probably would have turned into an out. More importantly, what do the Mets do if this is the end for Delgado? His contract only runs through the 2008 season, as he had the unfortunate experience of being a free agent in-between the Darren Dreifort and Gil Meche eras of fiscal insanity. The Mets have long been linked to Mark Teixiera, who only has a .484 career slugging percentage away from Ameri-Arlington-Ranger-Whatever (Ball)Park. Then again, stat-heads said the same thing about Alfonso Soriano before he clubbed 46 homers in RFK last year. I think it’s safe to say that any package for Teixiera would start with at least two of the Milledge-Gomez-Martinez-Pelfrey-Humber group, and probably end up being even more expensive. Mike Carp is still a ways away, and may not be the middle of the order hitter that the Mets need. What should Minaya do if the Mets approach the deadline in a tight race with the Braves and/or Phillies and first base is still an issue? I’m not one to jump to conclusions, but I feel like I’m much more worried about Delgado than most Mets fans seem to be. Will he go out as quietly as his band? Are things going to turn around for him now that I’ve written this, like last time? I’m not overly optimistic. One of the things Omar Minaya is going to be facing for the next few years is building around the Reyes-Wright-Beltran core, and it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with his lineup when it’s springs a leak. A 14.5 million dollar leak, in this case. 49 Responses to “Are You Gonna Sink or Swim?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Count me in as very worried about Delgado. Nice article
When you look at Delgado’s “most similar through age 34″ you get a little more reason for optimisim this season but a big dropoff for next year. In their age 35 season’s five of the ten put up 30+HRs w/100+rbi. Here are HR/rbi’s for their age 35 & 36 seasons after which Delgado’s contract is up.
1. Jim Thome 42/109 currently in age 36 season
2. Frank Thomas 42/105, 18/49 in 74 games
3. Fred McGriff 32/104, 27/106
5. Jeff Bagwell 39/100, 27/89
9. Rafael Palmeiro 39/120, 27/123
7. Willie McCovey 29/75, 22/63
8. Reggie Jackson 15/42 in 94 games, 39/101
4. Jose Canseco 15/49 in 98 games, 16/49 in 76 games
10. Duke Snider 5/30 in 80 games, 14/45 in 129 games
6. Juan Gonzalez done
Those of you who may remember a number of my whinings about the Delgado trade would probably suspect that I could not resist commenting here! I’ve been claiming he’s aged since last year. In fact, last year, I questioned his age though some on this list said his age was irrefutable. I also suggested yesterday that he’d probably get 95 RBIs this year if he plays regularly but that isn’t very good considering how many times he comes up with batters on base. He won’t drop from his glory days down to .210 and 10 home runs over one season, but I think he is sinking. I think that has something to do with his .265 average last year. On the other hand, the claim several years ago was that Piazza can’t catch up to good fastballs and he has managed fairly well over the past few years while he has stayed healthy. If it is true, Delgado will either need to shorten his swing or start a bit earlier. The former will result in less home runs. the latter in a lower batting average. But so far, he has managed both - lower batting average and few home runs.
What is the solution? If he remains bad and Chavez and Gomez and Green remain good, perhaps put Green at first part of the time. Green is no spring chicken, but seems to be aging slower. That’s for this year. What about next year? Hey, how about Jacobs?? is he injured? I haven’t seen him in box scores for a while. Teixeira doesn’t sound like a bad idea but his away game stats sounds pretty scary.
I think his elbow is not yet healed. I don’t know when it will be, but given the fact that he was the best hitter in baseball last October and then had surgery, I’m pretty willing to bet this black-hole slump hinges on recovering from that surgery and not some idea that he’s done because of age. Of course, if somehow he never fully heals, then it’s all the same. But I really think he’ll turn it around and start driving the ball with power again. I don’t think there’s much likelihood that his annual totals are at average, but at this point I’d be very happy with .275 from here on out and 28-30 homeruns total or whatever. Very happy.
We were talking about this the yesterday in a thread. I think his struggles this year really have to do with the injury. Last year, his slugging pct was right around where it usually his thoughtout his career (he hit 38 home runs).
We were talking about the shift and what effect that may have. I thought that he should drop down a couple of bunts down the 3rd base line. People said that teams would rather him hit singles then home runs which is true but right now singles are better then outs. The shift takes away the base hits, not the home run. So whats the difference if he pulls one between the hole between 1st and 2nd or drops one down the 3rd base line? Once teams realize the shift no longer works they may not use it as much….opening the hole for cdel. Im not saying bunt all the time but he’s only bunted ONCE in this situation……id do it more often……his .210 average will certainly go up and I think it will benefit him and the team in long haul.
I have to think that the surgery has had a lot to do with this. That doesn’t answer the question, of course, of whether it will ever fully heal, and whether playing or resting it would give it the best chance to get better.
In the meantime, while we’ve been able to cover for the black hole in the cleanup spot thus far, it’s reasonable to think that you can’t have your 4-hitter hovering at the mendoza line for too much longer.
Willie and the org are loyal - which is good - but sometimes to a fault, especially when it comes to telling guys who are hurting that they have to sit.
Would this lineup be better with Shawn Green playing 1B, and (for now) letting Endy and Gomez roam the corner OF spots? Our OF defense would certainly improve. What’s the lineup look like with Delgado out? D-Wright hitting 4th, most likely.
How much longer can it go? June? The All-Star break? It’d be interesting to know the org’s thinking on this, and even more interesting to know just how far/close Delgado is to being healthy.
Eli, I completely agree with you on this. Delgado is missing balls by miles and not even close to sub par fast balls. Maybe he needs glasses or something but he is really bad right now
Gil Meche is the case for fiscal insanity? Have you seen what he’s doing this year? Apparently not. He’s a bargain for the numbers he’s putting up. He’d far and away be the best picther on the Mets.
Also I find it funny that a blog that follows a team that is currently spending nearly 22 million dollars on players over the age of 40 points to Gil Meche as the poster boy of fiscal insanity in baseball.
Wow, I blogged something about this today and hedged a little, sensing I might be the alone in my concern. Apparently not.
Delgado’s problem hasn’t so much been falling behind good fastballs, he’s often out in front of everything, resulting in slow tappers to 2B at best. His timing and eye at the plate these days is horrible. Even the low & inside wheelhouse is barren terrain for him lately. It’s gotta be the injury that caused problems, but now he’s in his own head and needs an overhaul, or meditation, or maybe just to hit 6th or 7th and work it out. We need the hitting equivalent of a Peterson; is Rick Down even working with him?
Good to hear from Gil Meche’s mother every now and again.
What hurts most in the long-term about Delgado is that… part of the deal to get him involved giving up Jacobs who, down in the no-man’s land of Miami, is shaping into… maybe not an All-Star but into a player who’s going to be an above-average bat for a long time.
The kind of .290 25 HRs player that’d be a perfect secondary piece in a line-up with Reyes and Wright and Beltran and Gomez/Milledge.
I think the Mets’ one front office problem has been and is still… going for the “big splash” guys a little past their prime instead of developing the B+ level prospects in their system into above-average careerists to fit around their big stars.
I realize that’s a thing of being in the same town as the Yankees but… it’s the one thing that still frustrates me.
My opinion is and still remains that… the Mets don’t HAVE to trade prospects. Basically ever. They have the potential third-highest payroll and some great pitching and outfield prospects and… when you’re this good WITH all these injuries?
Pfft. Just develop your guys and buy top dollar free agents in November.
I hope it’s that Delgado’s hurt. I really do. I’m just… less and less inclined to believe that.
Delgado’s off season surgery might have a little to do with his slump this year, but I think the biggest issue is his pig-headedness in hitting into the shift. Chris, you did a great job in analyzing Delgado’s numbers this year vs. last year, but go back several more years and a clearer picture emerges.
Delgado’s BABIP was consistently between .300 and .330 for the five years prior to the implementation of the shift against him. Since the shift started last year, his BIBAP has fallen to the .270 range - that’s a huge slide and accounts for 30+ points of a lower batting average.
What made Delgado successful last year was his ability to hit home runs. He hit 38 last year. This year he’s on pace to hit 12. That 26 hit drop off (assuming they’re all pop outs - as evidenced by his doubling rate of that stat) gets him to a .216 average - which is exactly where he is now.
What’s so frustrating about Delgado has been his inability to learn and adjust. Remember last year he always took notes in a black book - analyzing how pitchers threw to him (location, sequencing, speed, etc). What happened to that? It indicated a player who was intent on learning and focusing on improving - that seems to have vanished this year.
In the end, Delgado’s mechanics appear to be off and his swing looks a bit slower - maybe the surgery had that effect, but Delgado still has an opportunity to contribute by being a heady player. The infield shift against him allows him to be productive nearly every time at the plate - and yet he refuses to take advantage of it - save one time this season. Why wouldn’t it be the right approach to bunt or check swing to the left side when leading off an inning, with a runner on first, or when the team is down by two or more runs late in a game?
The league started adjusting to Delgado last year. Back then his answer was to ignore it and hit the ball over the wall. Since he’s unable to do that this year, why won’t he re-adjust his approach to continue to contribute?
Pig-headedness.
Could Brett Harper (.285/.345/.515) be our next version of Mike Jacobs? Is he worth a look come July?
davidg you are right as well. I constantly ask why Delgado hits inot the shift instead of down third or even bunting from time to time to get the shift off. Willie needs to nip this asap. We can not have a #4 hitter hitting 216 with nothing to show for his problems.
This is a silly analysis. What should Delgado be doing, spraying ball like Endy Chavez, look he’s a lefty power hitter, they all tend to pull the ball a lot, they’ve been playing that shift on guys like that forever, and they deal with it. The guy is late on everything and clearly hurt, he shouldn’t be trying to become a spray hitter because of it, he should be getting healthy.
One 6 week stretch of struggle and you guys want start bringing up guys from AA. Wonderful patience your showing.
If he is hurt he needs to sit and get healthy. If he wants to help his team he can learn more skills like spraying the ball, bunting etc. What he is doing now is clearly not helping the mets. Luckily many people are carrying him along . We need a #4 hitter who can hit and we can not make excuses for him. His approach right now is not great and in the end he is hurting himself and his team.
I agree he’s probably needs to go on the DL. But turning him to a spray hitter is silly.
I dont think he should nesscessary be a spray hitter……i think he should drop a bunt down here and there…….especially when we are down runs and need base runners…….its an easy way to get on base when no one is remotely close to playing 3rd.
I’m not really that worried about Delgado. I agree with DocK’s viewpoints here.
Everyone was freaking out on DW too and all the fans that kept the faith said just give him time and guess what, we were right.
I do agree that he is probly hurt, and if thats the case he should shut it down and get healthy.
Hindsight = 20/20. It’s easy to say that Gil Meche is a bargain right now. However, going into the offseason he was a pitcher who was frequently hurt (never pitched 200 innings in a season), walked a lot of batters when healthy enough to take the mound (career BB/9 of 4 at the end of ‘06), and had one partial season with an ERA below 4 despite pitching for a team that played its home games in an extremely pitcher-friendly park. That’s not worth $11 million a year, and the fact that a team that’s going to be in last place in its division with or without Gil Meche spent that on him is insane. That Meche is pitching very well right now does not make the amount of money spent on a pitcher with his mediocre track record any more sensible.
This I agree with, every once in a while sure. Not too often.
I’m a bit more worried about Delgado than I was about Wright, simply because Delgado is 10 years older and, as it has been pointed out, big sluggers tend to decline rather quickly once they hit their mid-30s. I think it’s just a slump that he’ll bust out of soon, but there’s that little voice in the back of my mind that can’t help but worry.
i hear ya Jess, but there’s no way that this is what Delgado is now.
no way in H, i promise you. he has not declined to this from the god he was in october last year. no way
dep, i hope u are right. We need him. Maybe he needs a DL break, Green play first Endy play RF for a while?
Just to be clear, I wasn’t aiming to completely gloss over his off-season surgery here, but I seem to have deleted that paragraph into the void of the internets. I think it’s more mental than physical though–would the Mets really keep throwing him out there hurt when he’s dragging down the middle of the order and we’re still heavy favorites to make the playoffs? That doesn’t sound like a Minaya move to me.
I do wish he’d do the spray thing a little to keep people off-balance, but thats clearly not his game and it never will be. I think we should focus on what he is and how to get him back to what he was.
PS: Sorry to Gil Meche’s mom up there, if he’s still pitching this well at the end of 2009 you have permission to firebomb my car.
I think this makes sense on so many levels. i support this if he needs the DL.
Brett Harper? Cmon now. That’s just silly.
As for Green at first, I’m against this.
Do we forget what happened the last time we tried to convert someone to play first?
Plus, the guy has issues catching balls. You really want him trying to pick DW’s brain farts?
FBOFW, Delgaod is our firstbaseman.
In closing, Gil Meche sucks.
What if the mets dont realize he’s hurting? What if they assume its just a slump and he’ll be fine?
He might be hurting, he just might not be talking about it too much.
I think its time for Willie to say to Delgado he needs to take a DL break period. If he is a non factor this week vs the Braves he must put him on DL
The problem with DL him is
1) We dont even know 100% that thats the reason he is struggling. It could be old age, it could just be he’s taking longer to get outta his slump then DW did…..it could be a number of reasons.
2) If the injury is affecting him and we put him on the DL for how long? Will rest even help? What if this is something thats going to nag him the entire season regardless?
I would generally agree with that statement but Green does actually have experience at 1st base. I think he played a lot there with the Dodgers, if I recall correctly.
Wow. I was just checking b-r.com to see how many games Green played at 1st (a LOT in 2004). Did you know he won a Gold Glove in 1999? I’m not entirely sure someone didn’t switch Green sometime in 2003 for a look-a-like.
Funny.. Maybe his HGH or Roids helped him then
If CD is still hurting will a week or two do much/any good? I fear it’s kind of like wrist surgery which they say bothers you the entire season after going under the knife.
Completely agree that the sure way to really mess him up is to ask him to start trying to hit opposite field. Then his mechanics could completely break down. Seems like he’s had his usual share of scorched foul balls into the RF stands - but too few are followed by similar lazers into the RF bullpen.
I only support Green at 1B if Delgado needs the DL, that was all i meant.
and i think Greeny can play 1B ok and he has done it in the past as others mentioned.
The point isn’t that Delgado should become a spray hitter - that would be silly. The point is that he should take what the defense gives him - especially if he can contribute more to wins and especially if he can’t deliver as he has been used to (age or injury).
Delgado actually has it easy to make the defense pay for over shifting - he doesn’t have to “spray” the ball - a bunt or check swing will do the trick. And once he’s shown the opposition he his willingness to take advantage of their shift, they’ll eventually move back to normal fielding positions - making it much easier for him to keep/regain 30+ points on his batting average (whether or not he can ever hit home runs at his past rate).
Baseball is a game of adjustments and Delgado isn’t making any right now.
Whatever the hell it is, the fact remains that you cannot keep a guy hitting cleanup all year at .216 with a long ball every couple of weeks. I mean, you can, if you’re the Nationals, but not on a contending team that figures to be in a race all season.
Now may not be the time, and I’m not saying that it is, but then there needs to come a point at which a move is made.
The guy just looks physically overmatched right now.
Regrettably, our backup for Delgado is worse on every point that people are complaining about.
I think that Green is our backup for Delgado, and he’s hitting .325 (and is a totally adequate first baseman by the way.) That moves Endy and his .375 average into an every day spot (once Alou is back) or Gomez into an everyday spot while Alou is out.
If we did this today (again, I’m not saying to bench CD now) this would vastly improve our OF defense, and, if Gomez hits better than .216, our offense as well.
As long as the team keeps winning, no need to do anything imo.
Reassess at the ASB. not till then.
Is this an appropriate time to mention that I hate Rick Sutcliff?
I’m new here, but I read you often (PS I am probably the only senior woman here)…If you think Carlos D is having a hard time, Have you seen Andrew Jones lately? He struck out 5 times yesterday and has a lower BA than Delgado. He’s much younger than Delgado…any thoughts? I too am concerned about CD. He looks awful up there, and rarely even has even a good looking swing. Has Alou ever played first? I think Green would be fine there.
Its hard to compare Delgado’s age and worthlessness this year to Thome’s or anyone else’s before him. The truth is, I never felt Jim Thome was a clean player, it seems he was one of those players who seem to get hurt a lot with steriod type injuries. Its very hard to compare anyone mostly we don’t know how hard Delgado works in the gym, on the field while at practice. We don’t know how hard Jim Thome works out either, so to compare one The most important thing is we make a move either at the all-star break or after the season if this continues.
Is there anyway we can find an athletic first baseman to replace him? Im tired of having lead footed stones out there who can’t field.
has green every played 1 st for the mets ?
Has anyone noticed his batting stance is different? last year he had an open stance his left foot was pointing towards first base and his body was facing the pitcher (similar to Batista’s stance when he played for the Orioles). With this stance his swing is quicker and pulls the ball more effectively.
Nice article! It’s interesting to note that New Orleans is playing Difelice at first. At an initial glace it seems ridiculous, but after a while, humm, maybe not so bad. He is hitting, and would let Castro to pinch hit more often. If he is called up, it could spell the end for Franco, which I doubt the Met’s would do. This would be a huge PR hit to the Mets.
I don’t see Delgado as being injured — he just looks really mechanically screwed up at the plate to me. He always had a weird swing, with very little wrist-action, and all his weight moving forward, and as such his power always seemed a little freakish. But now that’s all exaggerated and he’s way out in front of everything.
Personally I still think it’s a matter of correction plus confidence. When you get up in age and you start to go into a bad slump, especially to start the season, you can’t help but start wondering if it might be the end, and doubting yourself. It’s a mental thing he’s got to fight his way out of.
I’m not ready to say Delgado is done, but it IS time to move him down in the order. I don’t care how good the rest of the lineup is, a cleanup hitter with a .615 OPS (which, by the way, is .014 higher than David Eckstein) is just brutal.