1) How are the Phillies going to replace the production Bobby Abreu and David Dellucci gave them last season?

The Phillies have been trying to get over the hump for a few years now, and it is pretty clear that their fans are tired of their falling short. As a result, the notoriously tough Philadelphia faithful pretty much forced Bobby Abreu, whom they made the scapegoat for the team’s failures, out of town despite the fact that he had always been a very productive player. It appeared that the fans were right last season as the Phillies seemed to play better after he was traded, though part of the reason for this was David Dellucci’s fine work with the bat as his replacement.

The Phillies decided to spend their money this offseason on pitching so they decided that they are going to use Shane Victorino as their everyday rightfielder. Victorino would be a solid option as a starting centerfielder but he doesn’t have the bat to be a good player at a corner spot. Abreu and Dellucci combined to hit .284/.403/.476 last season in roughly 740 plate appearances. Victorino, who posted a 92 OPS+ last season, isn’t going to come close replacing those numbers.

2) How bad are the Nationals going to be?

Really, really bad. The Nationals are rebuilding and they know they aren’t going to be a competitive club in 2007. The only starting pitcher they have that has had any recent success is John Patterson, and even he’s a question mark because of his health. Their best hitter, Nick Johnson—never known for his durability—will likely miss the first month or so of the season. They do have some good players like Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, and a superstar in the making in Ryan Zimmerman, but I think the Nationals are going to have a hard time winning 60 games next season. The Nationals have a pretty weak farm system as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington dumping players during the season to stockpile prospects.

3) What team has the most reliable rotation?

The Marlins’ starters had the best ERA, 4.22, of any team in the NL East in 2006 despite the fact that they relied mostly on inexperienced pitchers. One might think their starters will be even better in 2007, but I’m not so sure. For one thing, some of their starters outperformed their peripheral statistics. More importantly, the league will be getting a second look at these pitchers. Will they be able to adjust? I think the guys they have are talented enough to do so eventually, but I could see some struggles next season. Another thing to keep in mind is that most of those young starters threw more innings in 2006 than they ever have before. That often affects young starters the next season. Still, it’s hard not to love the upside of this rotation.

The Phillies’ starters had the worst ERA of any team in the NL East in 2006, yet I think they probably have the most reliable rotation going into the 2007 season. For one thing, Randy Wolf, Gavin Floyd, and Ryan Madson (combined 6.35 ERA in 201.1 IP) won’t be starting for Philadelphia in 2007. But the real reason I like the Phillies’ rotation is because of the acquisition for Freddy Garcia. The former All-Star has been a workhorse throughout his career, throwing 200 or more innings in seven of his eight seasons and is going to team up with Brett Meyers (120 ERA+ the last two seasons) and Cole Hamels (3.02 K/BB last year, 9.86 k/9) to give the Phillies a very good trio of starters to head their rotation. If Jamie Moyer and Jon Lieber or Adam Eaton can just be decent at the back of the rotation, the Phillies will be in excellent shape with respect to their starting pitching.

4) Did the Braves give up too much to improve their bullpen?

The Braves’ bullpen was a disaster last season and Schuerholz made improving it a priority. Because of the exorbitant prices free agents were asking for their services, the Braves decided to fill the holes in their bullpen via the trade market. The two guys the Braves acquired, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, are about as good as they get and either one of those guys would probably do a better job in the closer’s role than Bob Wickman. I don’t really think the assigned roles are that important as sometimes the biggest outs happen in the seventh and eighth innings. As long as Soriano and Gonzalez are healthy, the Braves shouldn’t have too many problems bridging the gap between their starters and Wickman.

That being said, I think the Braves gave up a lot to sure up a glaring weakness. In order to get Soriano they had to give up Horacio Ramirez. Now, there are two ways to look at this trade. Ramirez is a 27 year-old lefthander and has a career 104 ERA+ over 500 innings. In my opinion, that’s a pretty valuable commodity. However, Horacio Ramirez’s peripherals suggest that he’s about ready to collapse, causing a lot of stats-oriented fans to praise the move. Personally, I’m not sure what to think. I am a stats-inclined guy but I also think it’s important to give a guy credit when he shows that he might be the type of pitcher that bucks the statistical trend. Horacio Ramirez is never going to be a star and may collapse, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a perfectly acceptable fourth or fifth starter for the next five years either. And that’s something any team would love to have.

The Braves traded Adam LaRoche to acquire Gonzalez, and I think it’s clear that LaRoche would have had a more significant impact on the Braves in 2007 than Gonzalez will. It’s hard for a middle reliever to be more important than your starting firstbaseman, which is why the Braves were able to get a very good prospect in their deal with the Pirates. LaRoche probably isn’t quite as good as his 2006 numbers indicate, but he has established himself as a quality regular. The Braves are hoping that Craig Wilson and Scott Thorman give them enough that they won’t miss LaRoche too much. I’m not so sure about that gamble.

5) Who is going to play centerfield for the Marlins?

The Marlins had a difficult time getting production from their centerfielders in 2006 as they combined to post a .642 OPS. The Marlins tried to fill that hole by trading for Rocco Baldelli, but it looks as though centerfield is going to be a problem again for them in 2007. The Marlins have the young pitching to acquire a more competent player to play, but I’m not sure they are willing increase their payroll in order to do so. It won’t matter who wins the job; the Marlins are going to struggle to get offence from centerfield.

6) What can the Braves expect from Tim Hudson?

If Tim Hudson’s first season as a Brave was a disappointment, his second season was a disaster. When Hudson was traded to the Braves, most people thought he’d be a perennial Cy Young candidate, but he has struggled to meet expectations. Although that may be true, he was still a very good pitcher in 2005 when he posted an ERA+ of 125 in 192 innings. Despite the relative success he enjoyed in that first season, there were some disturbing signs: many of Hudson’s peripheral statistics declined, meaning he was fortunate to post that ERA. Hudson’s peripherals declined again, and this time his record and ERA went with it. Hudson’s days as an elite starter are likely over. He’ll be better in 2007 than he was in 2006 but I think he’s much more likely to post an ERA+ under 100 than he is to post an ERA+ over 120.

7) Who will have the better year with the bat, Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard?

Ryan Howard had a tremendous season last year, and he deservedly got a lot of media attention for his exploits. Anytime a player hits 50+ homers and drives in nearly 150 runs, he’s going to get the attention he deserves. Howard was fantastic, but I’m not sure his season was much better than Miguel Cabrera’s, all things considered. Cabrera posted a .998 OPS last season despite playing in one of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball while Howard bettered that mark by 86 points playing in a much friendlier environment. Personally, I expect Howard’s performance to decline a little simply because it’s hard to maintain that type of production, and I think Cabrera will make up that gap in 2007.

8) What are the Nationals going to do about their outfield?

Austin Kearns is the only lock to be in the Nationals’ outfield on Opening Day; left and center are still up for grabs. Despite the fact that the Nationals have had a hard time scoring runs the last few seasons, Ryan Church has not been given consistent playing time, odd considering his .282/.359/.491 over 531 plate appearances since 2005. In all likelihood, Church will get a chance to prove what he can do with consistent playing time, and I think he’ll hit enough keep the job.

Church has also demonstrated he can play center without embarrassing himself, and I wonder if the Nationals might be better served playing him there with Chris Snelling (.797 OPS the last two seasons in limited action for the Mariners) in left rather than giving Nook Logan the job as their everyday centerfielder. Logan has great range, but he has struggled with the bat his entire professional career (.659 OPS in the minors). The Nationals also have former Met prospect Alex Escobar as well, but it would be risky to expect good health from him.

9) Who is going to close games for the Marlins?

The Marlins picked up Joe Borowski off the scrap heap in 2006, and he rewarded their confidence in him with a solid performance as their closer last season. Borowski signed with the Indians during the offseason, and his departure left a big hole at the back of their bullpen, which was bad enough in 2006. As it is, they are holding open auditions for 3 or 4 spots this spring. Taylor Tankersley, Ricky Nolasco, and Kevin Gregg appear to be the main candidates for the closer role, but it’s likely that more than one guy will get a chance at winning the job. One long shot in this competition is Henry Owens, the former Met prospect who put up Nintendo numbers in AA last season but struggled in his brief stint at the big league level. Regardless of who’s closing, I expect the Marlin bullpen will flounder, as it did last season.

10) Should the Phillies be worried about Tom Gordon?

Tom Gordon was a dominant closer for the Phillies in the first half of 2006, putting up a 2.17 ERA in 34.1 IP, but he wasn’t as effective in the second half as he struggled with injuries. Gordon is 39 years old and he has thrown a lot of innings over the past few seasons. There’s a lot of mileage on the odometer, and while I think he’ll be a solid closer for the Phillies, I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was last season.