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November 29, 2006
The Week in Geek: Slow But Steady
While general managers league-wide are throwing obscene sums of cash at middling relievers and lackluster middle infielders, Mets’ GM Omar Minaya seems content to bide his time, patiently waiting for the market to come to him. In past seasons, Minaya was the aggressor as a matter of necessity. Following the 2004 season the Mets were a laughing stock. Four seasons removed from a World Series appearance, nobody wanted to sign with the Mets. Sure, they had boatloads of money to spend, but theirs was a franchise in ruin, a front office in disarray and a team that just couldn’t win. Omar Minaya took the reins in September of that year, and in December he made a move that would change the franchise forever. Pedro Martinez brought a history of dominance, arm trouble and high-maintenance to the Mets, but more than anything he brought them credibility at a time when nobody else would. Carlos Beltran signed the richest deal in club history a month later, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that money alone wouldn’t have brought his all-around game to Shea. Even if Pedro never pitches another game for the Mets he will represent one of the most important moves the Mets have ever made. Minaya’s work two years ago in recruiting Martinez and then Beltran, coupled with the Mets incremental success these past two seasons, puts the Mets in an enviable situation. They have a terrific core of young, talented ballplayers. They have a good group of still-productive veterans. They still have most of their terrific bullpen in tow, and should have Duaner Sanchez back for the start of the season. They have some holes in the rotation, but the Mets aren’t worried about that. The Mets are very confident that Tom Glavine will decide that the Mets offer him the best chance to reach 300 wins quickly and, as importantly, the best chance to get back to the postseason. With Glavine back in the fold, the Mets’ rotation picture is much less tenuous. Minaya is actively playing the trade market because, let’s face it, the free agent market is selling poop as if it were platinum. In a world where Adam Eaton gets $24 million over three years, the Mets are wise to sit on their hands and wait for the lunacy to subside. And if the lunacy doesn’t subside? Well, then the Mets miss out on gouging themselves for the sake of signing Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Gil Meche, et al. Barry Zito is still out there, but if a never-will-be like Eaton can pull in $8 million large per season, Scott Boras might just be crazy enough to ask for $20 million for Zito. Case in point: Moises Alou. I wrote about Alou last week, and I am still enamored with his signing. Not because he’s an outstanding player, but because he is a very good hitter that the Mets didn’t have to overextend themselves to bring in. Alou could have brought his right-handed bat to any number of teams and demanded a two-year deal for $20 million or more. He came to the Mets because he wants to play in orange and blue and because he wants to play for a winner. It’s amazing — though not surprising — how much a little success can swing the market for a particular club so dramatically. Two years ago the Mets couldn’t catch a crackhead with a bowl full of crack. On-field success has provided the perfect complement to their deep pockets, and the result of that marriage is the flexibility to throw money at the best players when they become available as well as to stand pat when market conditions indicate that they should do so. The Mets could more easily recover from *not* signing a second-tier starting pitcher than from committing far too much money and far too many years on a player who will only marginally help them above and beyond something they can readily get for nothing. It’s hard to fathom that giving $40 million over four years to Vicente Padilla is a better plan than just handing the ball to Mike Pelfrey and telling him to go out there and throw it. Teams that can’t afford to sit back and wait for the fish to come to them have their hands forced in a seller’s market such as the one that baseball has fashioned for itself yet again. The Mets are an enigma, turning that seller’s market into a buyer’s one. In the end, Omar Minaya will do what’s best for the Mets in 2007, so long as it is also good for the 2008 Mets and beyond. It may be boring for fans simmering on the hot stove, and it’s death for baseball writers trying to find something fresh to scribble about every day. Sometimes it’s hard for us to see the big picture during these long, cold almost-Winter months, but it’s out there if you squint your eyes just right. 35 Responses to “The Week in Geek: Slow But Steady”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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You’re so right about Alou, Eric. We overpaid for Pedro, but got Alou cheaper because of that.
If we dotn land a big fish FA starter this year I say this team can still win 95 games with a pack of #3’s
Amen.
Maine, Duque, Perez, Humber, Soler, Pelfrey, Williams could all win 10 games or better this year with our offense. Then hopefully Pedro comes back strong.
Great article Eric and very good points.
Dave Williams is the poor man’s Barry Zito. WIth a little tutoring from the Jacket, DW2 will be barry zito lite.
Im really interested to see Humber get a shot at the rotation, we might have our ace already
While I’m in the sign Zito camp, I’m not in the sign Zito at all costs camp. If some other team wants to offer him more than 5 years, or more than $100 million, they can have him. And while I would like nothing more than the teams young arms to get their opportunities with the Mets, I can’t honestly say the team would still be a 90+ win team again w/o bringing in at least 2 solid SP’s the team can depend upon for give or take 200 innings each.
Just from last season the team is already down Pedro and does anyone really expect Jose Valentin and Endy Chavez to have repeat performances from last year? While the team has upgraded itself in LF the next biggest upgrade other than getting the needed two solid SP’s would be getting a stud 2B. In particular, obtaining one that hits lefties well would be a big plus for the team. If the team hadn’t so hastly re-signed Valentin I think Ray Durham (1063 OPS against LH) would have been just what the team needed to go with Alou to totally eliminate any problems they had last season with LH pitching.
But, that’s just one guys opinion for whatever it is worth.
Ray Durham is going to be awful really soon. It’s just a question of when. And his glove is so bad he’s going to cost you a win with his glove all by himself.
Great quote and so true, lol
I’ll go to war with El Duque, Maine, Oliver,(Pedro when healthy) even D Williams and B Bannister until Humber or/and Pelfrey are ready. We have no true ace on the staff but we do have ML arms. This is just a bad market. If not we would already have our ace. Its still early boys and girls a trade may be looming.
Our most important pitching aquisition(s) will likely come mid-season. With the market so thin this winter, Minaya may well wait to see who shakes out from amongst the youngsters, then make a deadline deal for a free agent to be. If Glavine re-signs, we should be good enough to at least hang in the race until the trade deadline.
Does anyone here have access to a list of 2008 free agents? Our post-season stud for 2007 could be on it.
ps if Bradford signs with Baltimore, as appears likely, I think it is highly doubtful that Heilman will be included in any trade.
pps as for 2B, I don’t think the Valentin deal precludes bringing in another player, either as a platoon or full-timer. Willie has stated that Valentin could get plenty of ABs as a utility player.
Found it myself: here’s the link to mlbtraderumors.com list of free agents for next winter.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008_mlb_free_agents/index.html
Not a great class, over-all or for pitching, but there are a couple of intriguing arms there. Hard to imagine the Cards and Cubs not holding on to Carpenter and Zambrano, but Jennings and Westbrook might wind up on the block.
Maine, El Duque, Perez, Humber, Soler, Pelfrey, Williams is too weak a rotation, even at the start of the season, Glavine returning and Pedro coming back later.
Omar will improve it with a trade or signing.
Yea no doubt, something will get done, Im sure. Omar knows the need for a solid arm is a must for the holidays and will gift wrap us a nice one. Hes just waiting out all the Naughty signings and seeing which pitchers have been naughty and nice.
This is the free agent season to sit on the sidelines…and I have a lot of respect for Minaya for doing just that. Let the Cubs blow their wad on the Sorianos of the world…I would rather wait for someone like Cabrera to become available and save my powder for that…or how about Carpenter in 2008? By the way…doesn’t Beltran look like the bargain of the century right now!?!
The only free agent signing that makes any sense so far this offseason (other than Mussina like hometown signings) is Alou for one year…and I am glad he is on our team!
I have to agree with SuperT again. The NL in all likelihood will be better next year and I think it’s actually urgent that the Mets get 2 solid pitchers. We NEED those 200 IP.
Great article tho, Eric.
Great article, Eric. A little low on the satire quotient for my tastes, though. Also made far too much sense. Let’s work on that.
This is a wait and see market. Yes the rotation needs an upgrade but rushing to sign the second tier guys (Mulder, Lily, Wolf, Eaton, Meche, W. Williams, V Padilla, Suppan, etc) is not the answer. They are all roughly the same level and a few of them will be left in January for us to comb over. Zito is not getting done until after Matsusaka so we must wait. Glavine decides soon and I am guessing here but if he stays, our only other get will be Zito. If he goes, we sign one of the above group and either blow our cash on Zito or we get a guy through a trade that is a #3 or better guy. Bottom line…..it is early and the market has dictated to us that patience is better than urgency right now. No need to rush. We have missed out on nothing of import other than perhaps Matsusaka and at $51M before the contract is done, that is lunacy.
Hang tight all. We will get the rotation and pen shored up before the season starts and we will be pleased with the results.
This is no time for patience! Patience?!? It’s almost December! Look at who al the other teams have signed! What is Omar doing?! He lets Soriano, Lee, Matzusaka, and now Bradford all walk away — right under his nose! He needs to bring a bag of cash to Boras’ office today — TODAY! A blank check with Pay To The Order Of Baron Von Zito written on top! And he should call Duquette about a Bradford trade. Maybe they’ll take Adkins straight up.
WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING NOW!
I, for one, am hiting refresh every 30 seconds on MLB.com today. I urge you to join me.
Nothing so far … c’mon Omar …. c’mon ….
Still nothing … I bet he isn’t even at work yet!! I would be at work by now (if I had a job)!
Still nothing - that’s it. I’m putting down my brong and heading over to Shea. I already have my sandwich board ready. It says “DO SOMETHING - ANYTHING!”
Who’s with me?
I’m outside Shea now … I guess none of you decided to join me … that’s ok, I’ll do this myself!! Uh-oh, here comes a security guard …
** wrestles Mets Blogger to the ground **
Who are you people??
Wait, so 71 and SuperT are both of the belief that the NL is going to be better?
Who is going to emerge as contenders against the Mets? The Cardinals are going to be weaker. The Padres are going to be weaker without Dave Roberts and Brian Giles looks to be going into a career tailspin. The Dodgers? Please, they’re giving 600+ ABs to Juan Pierre at the top of the order. Giants? No. Astros? No.
Please, someone tell me which teams in the NL are going to be better than last year?
The Mets could have won 100 games this past season. Obviously we will expect regression from Valentin and Lo Duca, but I’m not so sure about Endy regressing, maybe he just finally figured it out(that he’s supposed to be hitting the ball on the ground, not in the air.)
Alou is going to be better than Floyd. Johnson/Endy will be better than Nady(including defense, I’m still praying we dump Green)
Our rotation, when we sign Zito and Glavine will be fine.
Patience, comrades. If it’s any consolation, by this date last year we still had not acquired the following players:
Billy Wagner (signed a year ago today, in fact)
Duaner Sanchez (signed 1/4/06)
Paul LoDuca (12/5/05)
John Maine (1/21/06)
Jose Valentin (12/8/05)
Endy Chavez (12/23/05)
Julio Franco (12/9/05)
and the previous year, the following:
Pedro Martinez (12/16/04)
Carlos Beltran (1/11/05)
Its true we don’t have an established ace. But who does? What makes an established ace? What has Barry Zito or Matzusaka done to make themselves qualify?
It can’t be the intimidation factor. Niether of them has it. Big game performance? What game has Zito pitched big in that was bigger than 6 or 7 of an LCS? We’ve got two young guys that put in monster perfomances in huge spots. And one of them is a lefty fireballer.
OK, so its still too early to tell on Maine and Perez. But we’ve seen them at their best. Maine put in some great perfomances throughout the yeart. He also had one or two stinkers, but he put them away and came back strong. Bannister looked good in his limited time (just has to work on that walk issue) and Humber has some great potential.
The pen is still strong. Worse comes to worse, we can put Heilman in the rotation.
Why are people demanding to pull something from free agency to fix somthing that may not be broken?
new thread open
Anybody know what the heck happened to BBTF?
Here’s a better question back at you - What do you think the chances of the Mets steamrollin through the NL again are? The odds (15 other teams vs 1) are definitely against you.
The Florida Marlins, bar none. You think all those young players were good this season, jsut wait. Jeremy Hermida is fantastic and had a bad rookie season. Yes, not everyone will be as good, but a lot will, and they all had their supposed ace, Dontrelle Willis, have a mediocre year. They’re young, dangerous, and in our division.
Also, the Milwaukee Brewers. A lot of talent–I thought they’d be good last year, but they’re likely to improve markedly as well (though maybe only to an 85 win team).
And the Diamondbacks. OK team right now, have a crap load of young players about ready and that only started for the second half of the season.
There are other talented squads in the NL (and I would aruge that the “mediocre-ness” of this past year was due a large part to parity, not to overall league suckitude. You look at the players on the teams, and there are as many if not more great players in the NL as the AL–and even the Cubs are not as bad as, say the Royals)–this past year was as much a transition year between the old gaurd and new as anything else. There will be more competition for the Mets next year, though I still think they’re the best team in the NL.
Luckily, it looks very, very much like Glavine is coming back.