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November 23, 2006
Oh, the Prices You’ll Pay!
Every year somebody overpays for a ‘name’ player. Whether it be the Seattle Mariners paying Adrian Beltre sixty-four million dollars over five years, or Bartolo Colon getting fifty-one million over four years, or Bobby Bonilla and that twenty-five million for five years contract. Sometimes these deals work out. Sometimes they don’t. Often, regardless of the production put forth, teams wind up looking to get out from under these enormous contracts. Sure, Magglio Ordonez has been solid for the Tigers, but has he been five years for seventy-five million dollars productive? The big problem with big names, however, is that fans tend to know them, and therefore want them. Removing money and age from the equation, who would you rather have manning left field — Raul Ibanez or Jermaine Dye? Though nine out of ten guys would choose Dye, Ibanez has actually been the more productive player of the two the past two seasons. And the same goes for starting pitching — who would you rather have on the mound for you, making thirty-plus starts a season? Dan Haren or Scott Kazmir? Aaron Harang or John Smoltz? Two of those guys were the best starters in baseball the past couple seasons, but I’ll let you guess who. So, coming back to Earth, where money and age and notoriety actually count, it’s even tougher to turn down a big name for a ‘lesser’ player. Why go after Moises Alou when Alfonso Soriano’s on the market? Why settle for Frank Catalanotto when Carlos Lee is available? And why go after Ted Lilly when Barry Zito is right there for the taking? But with big names come big expectations and even bigger contracts. Especially in a market where Gary Matthews, Jr. — a career .249 hitter before this past season — has earned fifty million dollars over five years. If Gary Matthews, Jr. can get that kind of money than what kind of money can actually productive players earn? The answer, apparently, is a boatload. It’s not even December and already Alfonso Soriano has signed with the Cubs, for both a ridiculous amount of years (eight) and cash (136 million), and there’s talk that Carlos Lee will join Aramis Ramirez in the seventy-million-plus league. Don’t get me wrong, these are all terrific players — there’s a reason they’ve earned the recognition they have. But in a year where Juan Pierre, barely a one-tool player, can get forty-five million dollars, things are a little screwy. So, in a flooded market, when does that much money become too much money? In the case of Barry Zito, that time’s probably arrived. Granted, Zito’s a fun guy to watch. He’s a lefty, he’s got a nasty curveball, and he’s a little kooky. He plays the guitar and wears his socks high and buys his own autographed baseball cards off eBay. Plus, he’s won a Cy Young award, has never pitched less than 213 innings since becoming a full-time starter, and he’s not even thirty yet! And, if we were back on that planet where money didn’t count, he’d be a terrific catch. But while Barry Zito is a nice pitcher, he’s just not a fifteen-million a year pitcher. And that was just Scott Boras’ starting point coming into free agency — after this ridiculous Gary Matthews deal, Boras is probably looking, and more than likely will get, Beltran money right now. The big issue with Zito, however, is that there is a reasonably priced option right underneath him in Ted Lilly. Lilly’s a year older, and not nearly as attractive. He’s never won a Cy Young, or even come close to winning one. He’s also been injured recently, something that tends to put off general managers — therefore his ERA in 2005 was bloated, something that tends to turn off fans. But what’s really important here is to forget the names and distinction and look at the production you’ll get for the price you’ll pay. Barry Zito’s pitched in the AL West his entire career, in a big pitcher’s park with even bigger foul territory and on a team that made the playoffs five of his seven years on the team — and never lost more than 74 games, regardless. Despite all these pluses he’s still posted an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.33 over the past three seasons. Lilly, on the other hand, has spent the vast majority of his career in the AL East, a monster of a division that boasts both the Yankees and Red Sox offenses, all while being a flyball pitcher in a homerun hitter’s park. And, despite pitching 2005 with a shoulder injury in his pitching arm, he’s still managed a 4.52 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. What does this tell us? Obviously, it tells us that Barry Zito is the superior pitcher. Nobody — and certainly not I — is questioning that. The real question is how much better a pitcher is Zito? Is he two spots higher in the rotation better? Is he eight million more dollars a year better? People call Barry Zito a frontline starter, but he isn’t. The numbers speak for themselves, he’s a 4.00 ERA pitcher that doesn’t strike out many guys, and walks his fair share in the process. Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter are frontline starters. Barry Zito’s a two on a solid team, a three on a good one. Will he be better with a jump to the National League? Realize his ace potential by switching to the “weaker” offensive league? Possibly, though that didn’t work out too well for his Oakland buddies Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. And, following that logic, who’s to say that Ted Lilly wouldn’t be much improved with a jump to the National League either? Especially if he were to jump to a pitcher’s park while making that transition? The fact of the matter is this: Barry Zito’s good, but he’s not that good. He’s a fine pitcher, but he doesn’t deserve to be one of the highest paid in baseball. And, more and more, with each passing day, while teams keep throwing Monopoly money at average ballplayers, Zito’s price tag is rising. Some team is going to spend an exorbitant amount of money on him, and they’re not going to get the production they were expecting. Hell, for sixteen or seventeen million dollars a year, not many in the game could deliver that amount of production. And while Scott Boras can prop him up as an ace and tell us he’s the second coming of Steve Carlton, that doesn’t make any of it true. Nor does it make him a number one. Sure, Ted Lilly’s not fancy. He doesn’t have long hair or surf or date Alyssa Milano. And he’s never won more than fifteen games in a season. But what he does have is still pretty good. He’s got a comparable curveball, a better changeup, and a nice slider. And, more importantly, he’s pennies on Zito’s dollar. Because, just like how every year somebody always overpays for lesser production, somebody always managers to underpay for a hidden gem. And with comparable stuff, at what will likely turn out to be half the salary, Lilly could be that guy. 357 Responses to “Oh, the Prices You’ll Pay!”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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ok, honestly, do you mets fans out there actually think ted lilly (yes thats a flower) is better then barry zito (yes that a party)? you’ve gotta be kidding me.. zito is obiviously better.. ive got a few things to say, but honestly they’ve already been mentioned and i dont want to repeat my fans, so thanks.
a-yo rik, whose better zito or the flower?
I resent that name, thank you. There is nothing funky about me.
honeslty pitchers are always going to mack approx 10 percent mroe then an average player.. look at the numbers, they’re right there..
nelson,
stfu you idiot.. we all know zito is better, but honestly is he that much better that hes worth that much more? i doubt it.. now you make a great point, if the mets sign lilly, they will be called the new york queers (not that theres anything wrong with that) zito is awesome..
over and out!
No. I think there are minor differences in age and leagues when they signed contracts. My comparison is more along their contracts and how Zito will not live up to his as Brown failed to do so. The reason I belabor the point is because there was someone here who said that the Brown signing was worth the while when this was far from the case. Also Brown was 33 and Zito is 28.
This is how I write. If you can’t understand my big words here is a site you should look at.
http://www.m-w.com/
I am from the United States of America and no I am not homosexual last time I checked. Are you trying to pick me up? Why are u asking about where I live and my sexual orientation. I think there are other chatrooms for what you are looking for…
yeah i guess i think parties are pretty good
yo i think roman is hot to trot for this new girl i think its a girl anyway or does romaon smooch dudes
nelson,
i admit im gay, sorry ill shut up now.
Sorry, I was typing alot and misspelled.
If they do that, I’ll have to get a new jersey.
im gay
i am from new jersey weird do you know me?
Precisely…
LOL!
yo, home dawg, back off a step.. im trying to pick you up? no i making fun of your dorky, non human name, so eat it.. l8er
if you dont understand any of that go to: urbandicitonary.com
jack
yo dude, you admitted to being gay, LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
If there’s a Mod in Heaven, please lock this thread.
HOMIE,
why are you talking gay? is this not metgeek.com lets talk mets, although i highly doubt you’ve ever even been to a met game..
LOL! Ok, I will Jack. you could have at least linked me to the site.
http://www.urbandictionary.com
copy and paste retard
lock this thread why? im having as much fun as being at a met game..
Is this guy for real? LOL!
i like ice cream cake…… alot!!!
I already got there by the time you linked it. Its a nice site…
are you fa real? you’re gay, who do you guys trust?
you know what man, you;re acting like jim duquette after he traded kazimer.. figure it out.
LOL! You are by far the most sick, twisted and funniest Metfan Ive seen since I got here. I mean, you are probably dumber than a bag of rocks but you are sure funny!
lmao dude, you said you were gay? how am i dumb? by presenting evidence of your homosexuality, i mean honestly whose the one talking on message boards at 4 pm?
sick and twisted, i take serious offense to this, as does nelson.
LOL! You are by far the most sick, twisted and funniest Metfan Ive seen since I got here. I mean, you are probably dumber than a bag of rocks but you are sure funny!
i think you guys knew what i meant to have get some quotas….
Huh? I don’t understand your point? Clarify. You write like a 5th grader.
You write like a kindergartener.
bvbvb
you right like an old man, who has no life. and is gay
bvbvb? i disagree, mets are better then the yankees.
Why am I not able to write anymore? Who’s blocking me?
You are right I should leave. This is no life talking with a 5th grader. Before I go here is a site you should look at http://secure.hop.com/. LOL!
Man, good ole family values. Thats why I love this site, lol. How many more days til pitchers and catchers?
Also taking someone elses handle should be prohibited. I believe its also against the guidlines of metsgeek.
i wouldn’t mind if the lot of you ran into some e coli spinach for lunch this weekend. geeks, get these jerks off the site please.
whose taking whose handle? and is that even possible? thanks alot… mets for 2015 champs!
hey yo mann i m gay too who you taklin at hollaaaa!
Man, now it really annoys me that Zito stole that Cy Young award from Pedro.
Zito did NOT deserve that Cy Young. Argh I hate baseball writers.
Wait, did someone say they would trade LM and AH for Garcia but not for Peavy?
Wtf is that moron smoking?
And can we stop talking about how Zito outpitched Santana in that game? That was a fluke. And if the Twins batters just stood there they would have been walking around the bases like the Mets versus Rick Ankiel.
The entire game would have been different if Gardenhire hadn’t been a moron and had Luis Castillo try to steal second base. Gave Zito an out he might not have ever gotten in that inning.
Mdog, I will bet you 20 bucks that if Zito is a Met he will not win pitching Win Shares or VORP.
I don’t care about the CY award, the Baseball writers are all on crack these days.
mdog, you keep on using inane specific arguments of pitchers moving from the AL to the NL and becoming dominant for your theory that AL->NL will make pitchers better.
Well, you used Clemens, who has been lights out, and Kevin Brown.
Kevin Brown was always a good pitcher, posting a 3.35 ERA in his rookie season and 3.60 ERA in his second, then went 21-11 with a 3.32 ERA in 1992.
My argument is, Kevin Brown and Roger Clemens were both very good pitchers before going from the AL to the NL. I would argue that both of them were much better than Zito was when they switched leagues.
Hell, as much as I detest Clemens now, if he wasn’t such a scumbag, I would love him as a Met for next season. If you’re going to throw money at a guy, I come from the camp that anything under 25 million per season is ok if the contract is 1-2 seasons.
God, Roger, why do you have to be such an a-hole?
You know nothing about baseball if you make blanket statements like it’s easier to pitch in the NL than the AL.
Several factors change things.
1) Pitchers have to hit, which expends more energy. If they end up getting on base, they expend even more energy
2) Pitchers often have tighter strike zones, maybe it’s just my observations, but I feel that the NL has always had tighter strike zones, even after the umpires merged, than the AL.
3) Pitching in bad hitting divisions, even with a DH, is easier than pitching in strong hitting divisions. 9 bad hitters > 8 good hitters and a pitcher(who can bunt at least, which I have not seen much of from bottom of the order AL guys, man, fundamentals guys!)
4) Imagine Barry Zito pitching at Philly. He might give up double digit HRs there per year!
Damn, ho, you got some wack manners on ya mouth. I did say I would swap LM (buried, unfortunately) + AH (underutilized) for Garcia (workhorse who could probably take the stress of NY better than that goofball Zitolio). I guess I’d do the same trade for Peavy, but he isn’t available, so like, who gives a fuck?
The offensive difference between leagues isn’t as dramatic as it used to be. It’s less than 1/4 run per game now, believe it or not. It might be the new bandbox NL parks. Or it could be that starting pitchers never go past the sixth inning, which means more PHs and fewer pitcher ABs. Seriously, when’s the last time you saw a pitcher go 0-for-5, or 0-for-4 even? Eh?
Precisely.
I am an infrequent contributor though frequent visitor to this site. I enjoy the intelligent discourse as well as the many quantitative and qualitative arguments that shed new light on the Mets and baseball in general. Unfortunately over the holiday, the site seems to have been infected by viral threats in the form of name-calling, immaturity and even worse, hatred. I will only speak for myself but hope I speak for everyone when I say if you cannot follow the rules, go someplace else. What makes this site work is the tremendous amount of self-policing. Discipline is a virtue.
Future I forgot more about baseball then you will ever know. I played the game at a high level for a long time. What are your credentials. Yes Brown was good in the Al but never had an era under 3 untill he pitched in the NL and then he did it every year but the year he was hurt. Clemens was always great but his numbers went way down against the NL. It’s not a blanket statement you moron it’s a fact. There’s a reason you guys can only come up with Hudson to prove there’s no difference, when I’ve come up with many guys. Future did you watch any interleague play this year??? The NL was killed by the AL. And please don’t say the NL won the WS because you know as well as I know that the Cards were not the best team. Offensive numbers were closer this year between leagues but over the past years it’s not even close. Where do you guys get the NL east is this great offensive division. The Mets are great but Zito wouldn’t have to face us. The phils, yes but mostly because their park. The Marlins, Braves and Nationals are now offensive forces?????And you have the nerve to talk about my baseball knowledge. Future if you want to impress me, give me some facts not your ridiculous opinion that because pitchers have to hit they expend more energy. Pitchers in the NL also get pinch hit for in the late innings and don’t pitch as often late in games when they get tired. So bring on some facts and not your stupidity.
Here, here.
word
AFOMG what are you doing today? Gimme a call if you wanna do some Bobbys specializing… I think the bugman went out to NJ for the day/night. bzzz
to all at metGEEKS.com
i find all of your opinions to be wrong,and i find ramon to be a homosexual.. now i am just asking for an apology.. i mean serious, ramon im a midget, pick on someone your own size…
little nelson.
whats with all of the zito hating? hes a solid pitcher, and honestly the mets cant really rely on PEDRO anymore, hes getting close to 40, and his arm is falling off (isnt everyones?!!!lmao)
hows about the mets get zito and lilly!?
metgeeks.com,
hello this is Susan Mcpherson of the New York Post, I am writing to you to tell you there is some major news to be released by the New York Mets. Rumor Has It; In a multi-league deal, the New York Knicks are going to trade C/F to the Baltimore Orioles for SS Miggy. It is unknown if Jose Reyes is going to be involved.. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS RUMOR.
Susan MaCpherson.
In addition to my above post, i will be releasing the name of the rumored C/F who will be traded.. i am dead serious.
well i know who C/F.. Eddy Curry, aka Center FAT.
can’t disagree with any of this really,
methinks the dark side is strong in here.