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October 13, 2006
Dissecting Carpenter
Last night was a huge win for the Mets in a game that they really had to have. A lot of that is because Chris Carpenter is going for the Cardinals tonight. Equally important are that they were coming off of a four day layoff, they were playing at home, and just the fact that it was the first game of the series and 1-0 looks a whole lot nicer than 0-1. That said, the Mets could very easily have lost this game. Carlos Beltran hit a moon shot off of Jeff Weaver to account for the only two runs of the game and the Mets’ pitching and defense took care of the rest. Beltran had his share of struggles at home during the season, but he hit three of the biggest homeruns of the season at Shea for this club and, as was mentioned a hundred times during and after the game, he has had terrific success against the Cardinals, especially in the postseason. As for Carpenter, things are not always what they seem. The guy is an oustanding pitcher, the best starter in this series by a good ways and probably the best pitcher in the National League this season. Having said that, Carpenter has some interesting splits that could work to the Mets’ advantage. As much as anything, Carpenter is significantly more effective against right-handed batters — of which the Mets have two in their starting lineup — than he is against lefties — of which, counting switch-hitters, the Mets count six among their starters. Chris Carpenter, 2006
AB BAA OBP SLG
--------------------------------
vs RHB 462 .210 .252 .323
vs LHB 365 .266 .314 .416
--------------------------------
Chris Carpenter, 2003-2005
AB BAA OBP SLG
--------------------------------
vs RHB 1295 .211 .247 .306
vs LHB 1108 .266 .313 .439
--------------------------------
Those are pretty significant platoon splits, and 2006 was very consistent with his prior three seasons. We knew coming into this series that the Cardinals would feature exclusively right-handed starting pitchers and, like most righties, Carpenter has his issues against left-handed batters. Another factor that potentially favors the Mets is that Carpenter, like many pitchers, is a lot more comfortable playing at home in front of his own fans. At least, that’s what the numbers are telling me. His home/road splits for this year in particular are dramatic to say the least. Chris Carpenter, 2006
IP ERA BAA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
------------------------------------------------
Home 124.0 1.81 .214 6.60 1.60 0.51
Away 97.2 4.70 .260 8.57 1.94 1.39
------------------------------------------------
Other than his strikeout rate, everything is much, much worse when Carpenter pitches on the road. He gives up many more hits, more walks, and well over twice as many homeruns. There’s a lot of noise in just a single year of data, so that’s why three year splits are often much more reliable. Chris Carpenter, 2003-2005
IP ERA BAA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
------------------------------------------------
Home 336.0 2.38 .226 7.71 1.88 0.62
Away 309.1 3.87 .246 7.59 1.80 1.16
------------------------------------------------
Better, but still not good news for Carp. His walk and strikeout rates have moved back towards their midpoint, but his homeruns are still way up when he has been away from home. With these two factors working in the Mets’ favor, coupled with the fact that they’re opposing Carpenter with a better starting pitcher than they would have otherwise (John Maine vs Steve Trachsel), Wednesday’s rainout may wind up being to the Mets’ advantage after all. 269 Responses to “Dissecting Carpenter”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Popo Zao Popo Zao!
Later Dpty. I’m out till later too.
bah bah boo boo?
(gobbles antidepressants cached in father’s bathroom cabinet)
golly i am BORED
Check in when I get back from the game. Have fun here tonight and think good thoughts! Good karma, please!
Hope they score a ton of runs, so I can jump up and down and stay warm!
Let’s Go Mets!
M&MD are getting on the Mets about the songs they use during a game. Complaining that Sweet Caroline is Red Sox song and starting with the Enter Sandman crap again! Saying they steal everything and need their own identity.
Why do I listen to these guys?
Because they have nothing else to complain about today. You know they were hoping the Mets would lose so they could jump on that. They are asses.
I listen because I have 2 hours to kill before I leave work and I’m bored right now.
Too much to read, but in response to Willie using Mota over Heilman…with five games in five days, Willie might be leaving it open to use Heilman as the closer in one of the spots since Billy would be stretching it going four in a row or four of five if there were four save situations. It wouldn’t suprise me if Heilman did get a save this series. Of course, you cross that bridge when you get there and use everything you have to win that night, but it could be argued that Mota has been their best set-up guy since they got him so he really wasn’t taking that much of a chance.
So does anyone know who the guys wearing fake mustaches and holding Stache signs were? I saw them and immediately thought of the Geek. I also loved the guys running around with the JOSE JOSE JOSE sign, that was pretty cool.
im watching billiard rather then M&MD which in reality is yankee tv
Conspiracy theory: Willie’s saving Heilman for Game 4 as a spot-starter, or to long relieve for Perez if he gets banged up early. Remember, Heilman was debated as a starter for the first half of the season, he really wanted to be in the rotation, and last year as a starter he thru not one but 2 1-hit shutouts. If we can save him, why not throw him in game 4 instead of perez?
I would rather go back-to-back Oliver’s (Darren & Perez - not Michael) in games 4 and 5. Heilman hasn’t thrown more than 2 innings in a long time so his arm isn’t going to be stretched out. Plus what starting pitcher of ours can we reasonably rely on to go more than 6 innings over the next 4 days? I think were going to need him in the pen.
So I think either Darren O. or Glav for game 5. It all depends on what happens in the series before that. If we’re up 3-1 it might make sense to save TG for game 6 on full rest.
I don’t think it makes sense to hold him off in these games if we need him when we don’t know what the situation’s going to be then. There could be another rainout and Tommy goes on full rest in game 5, or we could sweep and not even have to play game 5.
Heilman might have to pitch 2 innings tonight if Maine doesnt get past the 5th. Heilman will not start this year. Our bullpen is our strenght why would we mess with that?
Ellis Dee, you don’t want me throwing maxium effort, 65 mph fastballs for the Mets in the playoffs?
No Heilman as a starter or D Oliver . Glavine will be game 5 for sure. If not, Maybe El Duque will appear somehow form the great beyond…..
A rainout in StL will change everything :-)
b/c we lost our best two starters is why. with the rainout, we can’t avoid starting perez and williams isn’t on the roster. i don’t trust perez and he appears the only choice now. If mota can spell heilman, the bullpen is still out strength and why not try it with a guy we trust rather than a wildcard? we all debated earlier in the year that heilman could be a good starter, and many posters argued for him to be given a shot instead of lima, etc..
i agree starting a guy who has only thrown in relief all year is different, but if his arm can do it (perhaps he can’t, but he’s a young guy), why not?
Don’t have much time to chat, but due to unforeseen events (well, not really), I happen to have an extra Upper Deck Box ticket. The cost of the ticket is $125, if anyone is interested. I’ll be there and so will Kevin (he posts here every once in a while). I know this is last minute, just thought I’d give it a shot..ie
Heilman would tire out after 3 ip, his arm strenght would not hold up after pitching 1 inning a game, 3 times a week for the whole year
Every week, the same garbage about Heilman starting since April.
LET IT GO MAN IT’S 100% NOT GOING TO HAPPEN I PROMISE YOU
I would sooner pitch Darren oliver over Heilman as a Starter. Willie has said Perez will get a start, we have to live with it. Hopefully we are up 3-0 or 2-1 when he does
think maybe porn stache is brinacuster? ;-)
Well im out, enjoy the game tonight folks, Beat carpenter!!! Lets go Mets!!!!
Is it too late to add Derek Bell to the roster? What about Jose Canseco? I hear he has a nasty knuckleball!
If not for the drive from Albany (at least 3 hours and with traffic and parking who knows) and my best friend’s birthday party tonight I would definitely take you up on this! Stupid friends!
4 more hours until game time. Have fun at the game for those going.
Come back mdog.
put “heilman starting for the mets” in the category of “things that will never happen” willomar has ben quite clear about this; even i have come to accept this…
A’s-Tigers coming up soon. They must be freezing their asses off in Detroit.
ok, ok, fine. I too am resigned to the reality; just trying to hope against hope we don’t have to go with perez in game 4.
Definitely not this year, but I think they’ll stretch him out again this winter. If they sign Mota and Sanchez comes back plus Padilla will be healthy again they won’t need Heilman in the bullpen. That said, they would probably trade him first, so you’re probably right about him never starting for the Mets… I guess I have added nothing to this conversation so I will stop typing now…
Jeff Daniels…singing…I hate Fox.
LOL, well you might be an option with that blazing fastball if you were on the roster! Are you a lefty? Maybe Willie could use you in the WS.
Jeanie Z just stole
The Maine Event line.
Bitch
Fox is so annoying and stupid.
I love how the pre-game show for the ALCS was all about whether the Mets should pitch to Pujols in the game that’s starting 4 hours from now. Oh, and Eric Byrnes needs to go somewhere where I don’t have to see or hear him.
I hope they never get the baseball contract again (hopefully this contract is up soon)! While the announcers on ESPN aren’t great, the only announcers the Fox people are better then are the YES nerds.
Was that supposed to read Jeff Daniels singing “I hate Fox”.
A new song?
Doomsday is everyday
WHen Green plays right
Mets should of signed a certain pitcher on August 31st
Helped Pitch Arizona to a championship
And won a gold medal too.
Omar dropped the ball
Should of signed Finch
oh no! not Sidd
but Jennie
The first place Eric Byrnes needs to go is a hair stylist. Then a speech therapist. And then media training so he doesn’t have the facial expressions of a Hanoi Hilton visitor.
Scheduled on a 10:30 red eye to parts unknown
Sadly, Fox showed a video of Daniels singing a song called “Tiger Fan Blues,” attempting to present it to the audience as a special treat - the way cats present dead rodents to their owners.
She is easy on the eyes pickles :)
Fox should hire me.
Jennie Finch could dominate
Her Husband Casey was teammates with Green in Arizona
I don’t like Green
thus I don’t like Casey either
Does anyone else think Rogers had his Warhol moment in the ALDS and is ripe for a whippin’ today?
I have the solution for the game 5 starter: AHern for 3 followed by D. Oliver for 3. AHern can bring it!
Did Green take your mother out to a nice seafood dinner and NEVER call her again? This hatred is so deep!
The leadoff-hitting catcher just got an infield hit. Seriously.
HOLY S**T, great play by Inge (aka the Human Webgem)!
Did Thom B. just say, “this snowcone wouldn’t have melted today?”
What? Who says that? These guys are terrible!
The Big Hurt with a Big Bruise on a Big Thigh
Rogers just hit Frank Thomas in the leg on 0-2. Yowza.
Pretty obvious that the gambler sold his soul for that start against the yankmees. That’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make however.
Go Jay Payton - pay back Rogers for wrecking your ‘99 post season (and ours).
I hate Green
Let me count the ways
number 1
Evan Maclane ruled all
number 2
Evan Maclane someday will be the most dominent Loogy in the league
number 3
SHawn Green is no Preston Wilson
number 4
Preston Wilson wouldn’t of cost us Evan Maclane
and number 5
SHawn Green thinks he’s better than me
and he isn’t
Pickles
Wow, Harden pretty much bounced the first 4 pitches in the dirt.
Why I want to A’s to win:
This has been payback year. Think about all our rivals, past and present. Yankees? Gone. Braves? Gone. Cardinals? Dear God, I pray soon to be gone. So who’s left?
I remember crying my eyes out as a small child. Mets up 3 games to 2. Going back to Oakland, with Seaver starting game 6, and a hot Matlack game 7. Reggie and company proceeded to dance all over us. Y’all are probably too young to remember - but I won’t forget. This is a Kill Bill year. The A’s are next.
That said, it ain’t lookin like we’re gonna get them. First and third for the Tigers, no one out.
Is Polanco wearing a scarf? Not that I blame him one bit.
What the hell is Polanco wearing? He looks like Bazooka Joe. Has there been som sort of plutonium fallout in the Detroit area?
Oakland’s decision to pick Harden over Haren for Game 3 isn’t looking so good right now.
We need an A’s win ….we need this series to go looooooong.
From the files of same old, same old we have this. Not about baseball but it makes me laugh.
I hope that some team hires Piniella to manage just so nobody will have to endure him in the broadcast booth next year.
And what the f**k is Lyons talking about?
Oh goody, more T.O. news to be dissected on Sportscenter.
Piniella is surpsingly awful. You would think with his pedigree and reputation, he would be a baseball version of Dick Butkus. Instead, he’s Merlin Olson.
I may have had a stroke, but I believe Piniella just told me that when you throw a lot of pitches, you get a high pitch count.
Game thread is open.
GO METS.
Man, Harden is just not finding the strikezone.
I’m still trying to figure out if Lyons’s response to Lou speaking Spanish was racist or just run of the mill stupid.