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October 10, 2006
Upcoming Series: St. Louis Cardinals Pitchers
Wow, how much can change in a week, huh? Going into the Dodgers series everybody and their mother was predicting a demoralizing end of the season for the Mets — and why not? El Duque came up lame a day before the postseason was to begin, Pedro Martinez was “not walking through that door, fans,” and John Maine was thrust into the start of his lifetime in Game One of the NLDS. Sure, the Mets had a powerful offense and a dominating bullpen, but that all apparently wasn’t supposed to matter much. Luckily, this is why games are played. But now the roles are reversed. With an impressive showing against Los Angeles, with the offense churning and the bullpen looking as powerful as ever, the Mets seem to be the glamour pick throughout the internet and the newspapers and the radio. But we need look no further than across town to see what happens when you go into a series assuming victory. Do the Mets have the better lineup? Yes. The better bullpen? Absolutely. Are they better defensively, on the basepaths, and off the bench? Yes, yes, and probably, yeah. Heck, even going starter-for-starter, a case could definitely be made that the Mets feature the better rotation. But in a seven game series this all means nothing if you don’t show up to win. Hopefully the Mets’ September swoon was lesson enough, and they come out swinging the bats like they did the past three games. In Game One, Tom Glavine (1-0, 0.00), coming off a dominating performance, takes the ball against Jeff Weaver (1-0, 0.00) who is doing the same. In the second game of the series “Big Game” Johnny Maine (0-0, 2.08) goes to the mound against the Cardinals number two starter in Jeff Suppan (0-1, 6.23). In the third game Steve Trachsel (0-0, 5.40) draws the short straw in a matchup with the robotic pitching machine known as Chris Carpenter (2-0, 2.08). And, in Game Four, Oliver Perez (0-0, 0.00) is slated to get the start against Jason Marquis (0-0, 0.00). Game 1: Jeff WeaverWhat’s the Story? Weaver’s had an… interesting year. First, he reached free agency where — despite leading the team in wins and innings — he wasn’t offered a contract to return from the Dodgers. Then, he sat around while absolutely nobody showed interest in him, until February when the Angels picked him up on a one-year deal. Eighty-eight innings later, sporting a 3-10 record and a 6.29 ERA, Weaver was designated for assignment so his little brother could replace him in the rotation. Ouch. He was then dealt to the Cardinals for a twenty-four year old outfielder who’s played fifty-two games above A-Ball and some cash. And now, somehow, he’s the Cardinals Game One starter in the NLCS. And, please, don’t let that give you the false impression that he’s turned it around. His ERA with the Cards was still 5.18 and he still allowed ninety-nine hits in eighty-three innings of work. Weaver throws a low-90’s moving fastball, a nice slurvey-slider, an average curveball and an average, but inconsistent, changeup. This Year: Weaver faced the Mets once this season, and the results weren’t pretty. Though he did manage only five hits in five innings, two of those hits were Carlos Delgado homeruns (including a big grand slam). Overall, Weaver allowed five runs — four earned — while walking two and striking out four. What to Expect: While it’s easy to find fault with what Weaver’s done thus far this season, he does bring some pluses to the table. For one, he’s pitched solid while on the road (6-7, 4.38 ERA) — and even better since becoming a Cardinal (5-1, 3.63 ERA, including his last playoff start.) And speaking of that start, Weaver was absolutely on top of his game during it. Mixing in a nasty slurve with an at times overpowering fastball, Weaver was unhittable. Literally. Weaver allowed only two hits over those five innings, though at times it seemed he had no idea where his pitches were going (three walks and seventy-nine pitches, though only forty-seven for strikes). Luckily for the Mets, their offense isn’t the Padres. While the Mets have one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, and arguably the most powerful one still playing, they have the ability to look even better against Jeff Weaver. Why? Because lefties have hit an astounding .340/.396/.609 off him this year. Weaver’s approach to lefthanders is to spread the ball all over the plate, throwing a ton of fastballs and mixing in his curve and changeup. But righties can look for the ball to be down and away the majority of the time, and will see a ton of his still-impressive slurve, which has a helluva break. Free-swinging righties — I’m looking at you, David! — need to lay off that pitch, and force him to throw something over the plate. Game 2: Jeff SuppanWhat’s the Story? Suppan got rocked in his lone playoff start, but that’s really not indicative of the pitcher he’s been this year — and especially not down the stretch. Since the All-Star Break, Soup’s been 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA and the second-best pitcher on the Cards’ staff. And with Suppan having struggled all season against the Padres (0-1, 10.24 ERA in two starts), it lends even more support to the theory that his blowout was more aberration than what’s to be expected. But, what’s important to keep in mind is what Suppan actually is — a slop-throwing, groundball-inducing, finesse pitcher. And while the Mets struggled against exactly this type last season, they’ve feasted on them this year. Suppan doesn’t feature an above-average pitch, but he’s made a solid career on guile and exposing impatient hitters. Typically, he throws a high-80’s fastball, a decent sinker, a decent late-breaking slider, a decent but tricky changeup, and a decent curveball. So, overall, he’s decent. This Year: Suppan was, surprises of surprises, about average in his only appearance against the Mets. Over seven innings, he allowed three runs off of five hits (including a Jose Reyes homer), while walking two and striking out three. Then, the game was delayed for an hour and forty-one minutes, and, for whatever reason, Suppan was marched back out there when the game commenced. He proceeded to strike out Kaz Matsui, then walk two and give up another run on a Paul Lo Duca double. Overall, he allowed four runs in seven and two-thirds innings, with four walks and four punchouts. What to Expect: Suppan’s game relies on first-pitch strikes and hitting his spots. He did that superbly from the middle of July until the end of September — and then did neither against San Diego. Because Suppan’s stuff is average, he’s not going to blow anybody away (a hundred and four strikeouts in a hundred and ninety innings), especially not a professional lineup like the Mets. He’ll be looking to induce a ton of groundballs, and the Cardinals infield is a solid one defensively. For a groundball pitcher, Suppan does give up his fair share of homeruns (twenty-one), which just so happens to be the Mets offense’s favorite trick. And, once again, the Cardinals are throwing a pitcher that lefties rock — .302/.369/.464 against this year. Suppan’s gameplan against lefties consists of pretty much everything he’s got. He’ll throw a lot of fastballs and changeups, and work the curve in with two strikes on a hitter. Righties will typically get the fastball/slider combo. Suppan pounds the bottom half of the strike-zone against both hitters, and will work both sides of the plate equally. Another important note: while Soup’s been money at home, he’s been rattled easily on the road — 5-5 with a 5.36 ERA in road starts. Yikes. Game 3: Chris CarpenterWhat’s the Story? You can delay all you want, but eventually you’ll have to face the inevitable. And here he is — all 6′6″, 230 pounds of him. Carpenter was once again about as good as it gets in the NL — he placed in the top five in ERA (2nd - 3.09), WHIP (1st - 1.07) and BAA (4th - .235), and despite missing two weeks with bursitis, still managed to place sixth in innings (221.2) and seventh in strikeouts (184). But what makes this even more fun is that the Mets haven’t faced him at all this year, so they go into this matchup with no experience against arguably the best pitcher still pitching. Even more fun is the weapons in Carpenter’s arsenal — five, count ‘em five, above-average pitches: a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, an absolutely unhittable cutter that slices across the plate, an excellent sharp-breaking slider, a wicked late-breaking curve and an above-average changeup. Fun! Last Year: Though the Mets haven’t faced Carp this year, they did get a shot at him last season — and boy, oh boy, were the results something else. Seven innings of shutout ball, only three hits allowed, one walk and seven strikeouts. What to Expect: This game just does not look promising. First off, the Mets are more than likely countering with Steve Trachsel. Secondly, Carpenter has been absolutely dominant at home, sporting a ridiculous 1.82 ERA in a hundred and twenty-four innings — including four complete games. And third, the Mets team is currently batting .181/.278/.340 collectively against the guy. The Mets should seriously consider bumping up Oliver Perez’s throwaway start to Saturday, and saving Trachsel for the more promising Jason Marquis matchup. The only thing in the Mets favor in this start is Carpenter’s “trouble” with lefthanded hitters. Trouble being that they’ve hit .266/.314/.416 off him this season, which ain’t much trouble at all, really. Righties can expect a healthy dose of fastballs, cutters and sliders. Lefties will get even more cutters and a ton of curves. His change is his weakest pitch, and can be hit, but he throws it so sparingly that it doesn’t even really matter. Game 4: Jason MarquisWhat’s the Story? Ah, back to normalcy. Marquis was the Cardinals’ answer to Steve Trachsel for much of the season — a guy who kept winning despite no sane reason for it — until the offense decided to stop putting up runs for him, and Marquis decided to just keep on pitching crappily. He wound up leading the NL in losses and had the highest ERA among starting pitchers. He also managed to land the fourth highest BAA, as well to complete the triumvirate. Due to all of this there’s an outside chance Tony LaRussa will pull a Tony LaRussa and throw Anthony Reyes, left off the Divisional Series roster, onto the Championship Series roster — but as of right now that’s nothing more than fan conjecture. So, it really, really looks like Marquis will be making a Game Four start. Marquis’ gameplan typically consists of a mid-90’s fastball, a solid mid-90’s sinker and an okay slider. He’ll also, on occasion, throw his curveball or a changeup, though neither are any good. This Year: The Mets have faced Marquis twice this season — one start good and one start bad. Luckily, in his good start he faced Jose Lima, and was probably bolstered by that fact alone. His second start, which took place at the end of August, was when the magic happened. In six innings of work he gave up five runs on seven hits, including four walks and four strikeouts. Overall, he was 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA, allowing only eleven hits in fourteen and two-thirds innings, but also walking six, and therefore allowing eight of those runners to score. He struck out five. What to Expect: Marquis is well known for being a guy who’s easily readable, as he doesn’t change his gameplan much from hitter to hitter, and is prone to getting knocked around as the game winds on. Because, like the rest of the Cardinals staff — minus Carpenter, of course — his stuff isn’t overpowering, he has to rely a lot on groundballs and pop flies for outs. As you can tell by his numbers, that gameplan hasn’t worked so hot this season, and a solid defense can only get you so far. Marquis loves to throw that sinker, but rarely gets it over for a called strike. Hitters should keep an eye out for it — especially with two strikes on them. He’s also started to rely more heavily on his slider in crucial situations. Though he never got along with Leo Mazzone, he still follows the Mazzone Gameplan of pounding the strike zone low and away. Lefties will get a ton of fastballs, sinkers and sliders. Righties will get a lot of sinkers, and when he does throw a curve or a changeup, it’ll be to them. And, just as one final fun note — Marquis, continuing to be the exact opposite of Carpenter, has pitched dreadfully at home: 6.91 ERA, a hundred and nineteen hits and nineteen homers in ninety-seven innings, and a sterling .305 BAA against. Impressive. Overall:Not making any predictions worked out well last time, so I’m going to go ahead and do the same here. I will say that the matchups seem to favor the Mets. While the old adage is good pitching beats good hitting, the Cardinals just don’t seem to have enough good pitching to go around. Still, and I may be the only Mets fan who feels this way, but I’m very concerned about over-confidence — especially after watching the Yankees go down in four games. The Mets really should take this series handily, but it’s important to remember that the Cardinals did not get this far by being a lousy team. They’ve still got a solid lineup, a good defense and the best pitcher in the National League. Oh, and that other guy who plays first base isn’t awful, either. Either way, the Mets need to approach this series just like they approached the Dodgers series — with a chip on their shoulders and no mercy in their hearts. Enjoy the Championship Series, fans! 677 Responses to “Upcoming Series: St. Louis Cardinals Pitchers”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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nip/tuck!!
And it was Gibbons who went down in to the clubhouse after Lilly to rumble too. I definately think its his fault, a lot of guys in Toronto seem unhappy with him.
I completely trust Omar to make the call on character issues.
if omar wants ted lilly and pursues him and offers him a contract, ted lilly will be fine here imo
yea dancran :) the preview was nuts
yeah it was…i’ll prob start watching it soon
Dpty, The Phillies have Lieber, Myers and Hamels definately coming back and a very cheap mutual option to bring back Moyer. That leaves one spot and they really want to upgrade their rotation. Plus they have some young guys on the cusp soon
A’s look like they aren’t prepared to tonight at all.
Yeesh, that was a defensive brainfart for Oakland.
interesting chris, looks like he’ll be out there for the taking. you should email omar lol. what kind of money you think he’ll get?
Im sure if they were intersted in Lilly they would get Willies input on him. He always seemed like a quiet kid and that altercation kinda shocked me. But who knows what went on behind closed doors. Its hard to play for a mgr like that. Could you imagine Billy Martin as a coach today? lol. I sill remember when he did that interview, his eyes under those dark shades, and you could see the black and blue, and he said, “I wouldve gotten him, but he used that karate bullshit on me” lol. Billy was the man.
Wolf and Lilly would probably be around the same $$$ as zito per year.
He made 9 Million this last season. I could see him signing a base salary contract with alot of incentives and a performance based option worth alot like Trachsel’s option from b4 the season. Could be pretty cheap
Man, who was the blogger on here that went to the A’s/twins game and was dissing Zito, saying a good team doesnt swing at his garbage, and he never throws a strike? I owe that dude an apology. He called it
It couldn’t work today. Too much media and the players wouldn’t put up with it. They would be a straight munity where the players would just refuse to play for the manager. Look at what happened to Larry Bowa when he managed.
Heck no. Lilly will get a Kris Benson like contract. Randy Wolf substantially less since he’ll be on year two of his return from TJ
If Zito had a repeat performance as in Minnesota he would have made $3-5 Million extra a year for 4-5 years
I am going to start my own blog. Will work on it and have it up by the end of the week
Wow Chris, think he’ll go that high, lilly? I was hoping not, but your probably right with starting pitching being the way it is today.
Awesome Chris. Keep us posted, man
Man, their are alot of lefty pitchers in the ALCS….i dont mean to look forward but the mets would have their hands full..
Yea, I notice that to BCFC. A whole lot of them too. Its not gonna be easy, but we never really expected it to be either.
later everyone
ok so randy wolf it is. Chris lets get a petition of 10,000 geeks and fans and me and dep will put it on omars desk game 2 of the playoffs, lol.
solid chris. good luck with the blog. let me know if you need any of my assistance lol
Later Chris. Good luck with the Blog
Later, Chris. Can’t wait to see how your blog turns out.
Ugh, these announcers make me want to stab myself in the ear with a fork.
It’s official. This game is unwatchable. I am switching to a PBS documentary on things that taste like lima beans.
Im so glad I will be at game 1 tomorrow, i would hate to hear Joe Buck, the biggest cardinal fan, doing the game….and its a screwball
Peace out guys, Ill be back on later maybe. I wanna take a shower and wash these announcers out of my ears. I hope theres no permanent damage, lol
86Forever, I saw the word “lima” and nearly crawled under my desk in panic lol.
Wolf does sound pretty good, I know he shut us down when he faced us, if he has the stamina next year he could be good. I still wont count out meche either
I think I could hit 90 on Fox’s radar gun.
lol danny no doubt
zito is 4-3 lifetime in the post season
Sweet Lou seems so nice on the air…i would love to be a fly in the dugout watching the sweet lou change to deranged lunatic on the umps after a bad call.
I found an even better option … The history of Albanian war heroes on the WTF network. Luckily it is not narrated by anyone named “Psycho.”
Im signing off men and women…have a good night…and lets go mets!
yeah catch everyone tomorrow, have a good night
I think Lou Pinella just said you can’t knock in runs if they’re not on base. Thank goodness “How to Lance a Boil” is on the Surgery Channel.
via con dios, geeks…
Oakland just grounded into its 4th DP of the game - and it’s only the 7th inning!
Uh, Fox announcers? Decent playoff start notwithstanding, Jeff Weaver sucked almost as much with St. Louis as he did with the Angels.
i don’n't think i would use zoom-zoom in this sitch: let him rest that 120 km/hr arm…
103 MPH from Zumaya!
zoom-zoom’s right eye is very bloodshot.. what is up w/that…?
Milton Bradley meltdown alert, all operators to your meltdown stations.
I can understand why they would argue, but Payton was clearly out at first.
Nice catch by Granderson!
I guess Jones is just trying to set up the double play with that leadoff walk ;-P
we now know that zito is already counting his mets/angels/cubs/skanks/doodgers money and really doesn;t care about the trumpeting elephants. maybe we do no want this hired gun (hello heilman a starter)>
i think it is a prerequisite to throw 96 mph or harder to pitch for the tigers..they gave kenny rogers a pass…look at everyone else though
The A’s had plenty of chances, they just didn’t capitalize on them. Going 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position and grounding into 4 double plays just isn’t going to cut it.
yeah that is bad
Barry Zito, still an ace?
another mercernary gun slinger who may or mot perform once he gets his pay day forever contract; i was very pro zitman; at least at one point; mow i may be at least starting to at least think about possibly staying with home grown talentsia.. at least possibly, but maybe not…
kruk and phillips both pick mets over cardinals in 6 games
Kruk and Phillips both just predicted Mets in 6, Ravech picked Cards in 7.
and moronic ravech picks cardinals in 7, cuz he’s retarded
phillips picked mets vs A’s world series before the playoffs began..kruk is just dumb and picked the dodgers and eats coworkers
dancran nip/tuck was absolutely insane.
there’s some new stuff up on the geek.
I’m off for the evening, everyone have a good one.
i saw nip/tuck..i agree..crazy stuff!
Wow one bad start by Zito and we need to sign Randy Wolf???? One of the reasons for signing Zito is he’s never hurt. So instead we sign a guy coming off TJ surgery and a guy who hasn’t pitched a full season since 2003. I don’t get it. We need a top pitcher not a 500 pitcher who can eat a lot of innings. If thats all we need than resign Trachsel. He’s an innings eater. We can’t expect Glavine to be more than a 500 pitcher at his age. We can’t expect anything from Pedro. I love our kids but we don’t know what they’re going to be yet. We have 30 mill to spend and the best we can do is Randy Wolf and Ted Lilly. I am fully behind not being the Yankees and not overspending on players that don’t fit like Soriano. But we need a big starting pitcher and Zito might be the best one available. We need an ace or the closest thing to an ace. I know going against Chris is like taboo but we already have 1 pitcher coming off of TJ surgery, do we need two?? The guy is never healthy. You don’t want Zito, fine, then give me a good alternative. I can’t believe all but a couple of guys here loved Zito after his last start and after a poor one everyone hates him.
i just didn;t like zito’s body language 2night: he’s at the yacht shop already; he looks like a god durned skank to me.. i may be coming 180 on the zit issue..
This was Zito’s 7th post season start and it was his worst by far. So we disregard his other 6??
warning from custer to willomar: i have thought this through; i know how you appreciate my input; STAY AWAY FROM ZITO; my read on his body language = laziness; he gets that big contract; expect musqusina like performance; and i see no “team spirit” in zito he seems selfish’ willomar: HE’S A SUCKER PLAY; LET HIM GO!
So Brian, Zito won game one and said thats it I made my money now the hell with my team, I’m just going to coast. WOW and you wonder why no one takes you serious about Heilman. Really dude it’s kind of silly
yes exactly, that is my opinion on zito: he seems like a perfect skank; sorry if you disagree; and what that has to do w/my litany on heilman i do not know…
MDog, that is not what he said at all, you took about four more steps in the deduction department to come up with your opinion of what custer thinks.
That’s ridiculous. You went from custer saying that he didn’t like Zito’s body language, and that he looked lazy, and that once he gets a big contract he believes that Zito will mail it in and then you took that and said, “now I’ve made my money on my ALDS start therefore Zito tanked in the ALCS.”
That is not what custer said at all.
Zito is not an ace. He is not what the Mets need. You were using a good start, in your eyes, for Game 1 of the ALDS against the Twins. I was at the game. With my own two eyes, did I see the dominance you would see from the stat-line? No. He was shaky. He couldn’t consistently throw strikes, and the Twins went up hacking which was entirely the wrong approach. He doesn’t K enough guys to have that kind of walk rate and be an ace. He’s not going to be worth the 15 million. Everyone thinks that if the Mets spend the 15 million on him it doesn’t matter. Even the biggest teams after the Yankees might pass on another FA because they don’t want too high of a payroll.
Zito is not a dominant pitcher. He does not have dominant stuff. He has a sick curveball, and that’s it. Tom Ace pointed out velocity and location and movement are just as important, if not more important than the speed of the fastball. Unfortunately, to have a fastball that slow, Zito is going to need to have Jamie Moyer control. Something he has never shown in his career.
I really really, would much rather have Schmidt, or even Lilly. This team does not need to pick up an ace when the market is this terrible. Carpenter comes up for FA after the 07 season, I would much rather have the Mets save the money and sign Carpenter. Remember, Santana comes up for FA after the 08 season. Save the money, and then sign both of them.
Teams often fall into these kinds of traps. They need a certain caliber of player, but none is on the market. So they over-pay for a lower caliber player and then unless they player over-performs, which rarely happens, they bite the bullet, paying more dollars for performance than they should have.
Let the Angels or Yankees over-pay for him. Others have mentioned he’d pitch better in the NL, I debunked that theory. Others mentioned he would pitch better under Rick Peterson.
There might be some merit to that, he posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP under Peterson in 03. Then his stats ballooned after Peterson left(see the 04 stats.)
I’m just saying, say no to Barry Zito. If we’re getting him for 10 million a season, fine. If we’re getting him to be our #2 or #3, fine. If we’re paying him #1 money and expecting him to be a #1, expect a lot of booing.
Future you write this long winded speech about I misread what Custer said after he admitted thats exactly what he meant. We know you don’t like Zito, you’ve made your point. I don’t agree with you. I’m not signing Zito off of one start I’m signing him off his 102-63 record with a career era of 3.55 in the AL. I’m signing him because he has never missed a start in his career. You give me the guy with these numbers thats available and I will galdly change my mind. You are so biased against him that your not looking at the facts. By 2008, hopefully we will have Perez, Humber, Pelfrey, and Mulvey in the rotation.
Because it is such an absurd comment that people like me who always were with you on the Heilman thing, now wonder what we were thinking
zito put in a truly gutless performance 2night’ to me he looked like a typical skank pitcher; as far as heilman: i heard the word from willomar on the fan; he will never start for us; he will be traded or he will continue to maintain the role he hates… all of us heilman supporters must accept that…
Sorry Custer but I don’t know why it’s not just a bad start. So if Glavine gives up 5 runs tomorrow in 3 innings then obviously he’s mailing it in because he pitched a good first game. And what if Zito pitches a great game in game 5. You’ll just say he did that for the money, so he can’t win in your eyes. If he pitches great it’s because he wants a big contract and if he pitches bad it’s because he’s already done enough. As far as Heilman goes again you go too far. Omar said as of now I see him as a reliever. You hear that and somehow you twist that into Omar saying he will never start for us. He never said never.
mdog: your zito argument is skilffully parabolic: at one point i wanted zito on our team vey badly; i guess i just got a bad vibe 2night; i hope you are right: he will be awful expensive;
heilman:: “never say never”: heilman has heard that before; it cost him thanksgiving in the dominican republic (winter ball)… it gained him zip…
custer’s advice to brian bannie: DO NOT under any circumstances do winter ball…
I’ve always agreed with the mistreatment of Heilman. But we could both be wrong. He may never be a good starter but it would be nice to find out. I still say it’s up to Heilman to say once and for all start me or trade me. Again the team he goes to could also put him in the bullpen so at some point he should probably come to terms with it. As for Zito he will be expensive but at least we don’t have to worry about an injury prone guy. It’s not that much more than we paid Glavine and it’s the same amount that Musina makes. I think you would agree he’s better than those two guys. Have a good night dude and have sweet dreams of a Mets sweep.
via con dios GO IRISH!!!!! LETS GO METS!!!
One last Zito comment. He currently has the tenth best winning percentage among active starters. Of those ten he is the youngest. He is 65th all time. You must have 1000 innings to qualify for this list. Schmitt’s not on the list. No Carpenter or Oswalt. Don’t dismiss this guy so quickly, his numbers are very good.
Oh yeah I forgot the Irish. Go Irish….Lets Go Mets
I stand corrected on Oswalt. He qualifies after this season and his numbers put him 2nd only to Pedro, though he doesn’t have 100 wins yet. That list was before this season so there may be others but you get the point. Screw Zito lets go get Oswalt. Would you do Milledge, Heilman, and Pelfrey for Oswalt. Because thats the only way they give him up.