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August 24, 2006
The Wild Days of Youth
A week or so ago, minor league analyst John Sickels asked a question I was asking myself after last month’s trading deadline: is there hope for Oliver Perez? At the end of 2004 Perez was looking like an ace. Hell, in 2004 he was an ace, one of the fifteen or so best pitchers in baseball, and one of the game’s most exciting young players. And since then, it’s all unraveled for the 25 year old. Sickels concluded that there was hope, but that nothing was guaranteed. As wonderful as Sickels’ comments were, it really doesn’t help much. How much hope? Here’s a quick show of what Perez has done since he first entered the league in 2002: Year IP ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9 2002 90.0 3.50 9.40 4.80 7.10 1.30 2003 103.2 5.38 10.02 5.47 9.17 1.56 2004 196.0 2.98 10.97 3.72 6.66 1.01 2005 103.0 5.85 8.48 6.12 8.91 2.01 2006 76.0 6.63 7.22 6.04 10.42 1.54 It should be a surprise to no one that Perez’s control was the key to his success in 2004 and has been a major problem throughout his career. He’s also seen a decline in his strikeout rate. The homerun and hit rates have been all over the place, which isn’t that abnormal for a young, inconsistent power pitcher. As Sickels noted, after 2004 Perez’s statistical comparables included Sandy Koufax, but also Pete Falcone, Baylor Moore, and Juan Nieves, talented young pitchers who flamed out early. We have a little more data now, so here’s a list of the most statistically similar pitchers to Perez: 1. Sandy Koufax It’s funny, but after a horrible 2005, the quality of pitchers on the list of comparables probably improved a little. Koufax and Glavine are Hall of Famers (or future ones), although Glavine isn’t an accurate reference in this case. Koufax, on the other hand tops the list, and happens to be the pitcher Perez is most frequently compared with. Koufax, like Perez, is a lefty with a great fastball and a fantastic breaking pitch who suffered from terrible control. At age 25, Koufax saw a dramatic improvement in his control. Here’s a comparison between Koufax and Perez’s walk rates from ages 20 to 24 with a little catch. I’m showing their walks per nine innings as a percentage compared to the league average over that year, which I’ll call walk+. So a walk+ of 75 is 25% below the league average, and a rate of 125 is 25% better. Walk rates haven’t quite been constant throughout history, and this accounts for that. Age Koufax Perez 20 73 73 21 70 62 22 56 91 23 60 54 24 62 55* *estimate for this season The turning point in Koufax’s career came during his age 25 season, when that walk rate improved to just 3% below the league average. And that’s where Perez and Koufax really differ. That similar moment has already passed for Perez, and while Koufax improved the next few years after that, Perez went into a freefall. And that’s what makes Perez’s position in 2006 so unique. He seemingly already had that breakthrough in command that some similar pitchers experience, but hasn’t improved since. Jerry Reuss, number two on the list, was also a fairly similar pitcher. Reuss, at least at the start of his career, was a flamethrowing lefty whose command was shaky. However his walk rates were never as bad as Perez’s and his strikeout rates never as good. Reuss might have had the closest thing to Perez’s setback. As a 21-year old, Reuss posted a 103 walk+ in 130 innings before falling down to a 67+ in 211 innings the next season. Over the next three years, Reuss worked his way gradually back to the league average. This might be the best bet for Perez, though Reuss had a couple things going for him. First, Reuss was a year younger when his command fell off, second it didn’t fall quite as far, and third he pulled himself out of it somewhat the next year. Still, it offers some clear hope for Perez. Also, while Reuss wasn’t a Hall of Famer like Koufax, he was still a heck of a pitcher who won 220 games. I think Oliver would gladly take that. Falcone’s the example of the pitcher who never figured out how to throw strikes consistently. Like Perez, he showed a lot of promise in 1976 at age 22, posting an ERA 10% below the league average while posting solid strikeout rates. He had modestly improved his command (though not to the extent Perez had in 2004) from the year before, but couldn’t continue to improve. Unlike Perez though, Falcone’s strikeout rates while good, weren’t spectacular. Quite simply, Falcone at his best was never as good as Perez at his. But few pitchers are. With the exception of Sowders (a pre-1900 pitcher), all of the pitchers fit into one of these categories. Pierce fits into the Koufax mold of a pitcher who struggles with his command, suddenly figures it all out, and never looks back. Gregg and Underwood are both in the Falcone mold. Podres, Glavine, and Rosado are three pitchers who really bear little resemblance in any way to Perez, as none were high strikeout, poor control pitchers, though Podres and Glavine had their moments. Similarity scores, while useful, don’t always give a truly accurate comparison. The real difficulty in projecting Perez is the fact that he really is a one-of-a-kind pitcher. Few pitchers are that good, that young and then fall off the way he has. You can’t project him to turn into a Koufax, who was an extraordinary pitcher, but at the same time it’s difficult to predict him as a Falcone, Underwood, or Gregg because none of them were ever nearly as good Perez was in 2004. In the end, I think the odds are better given his current career shape that he’s a flameout, but you never know; people can surprise you. And in this case, betting on the surprise is a risk worth taking. 24 Responses to “The Wild Days of Youth”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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needless to say, Sandy Koufax on the 2006 or 2007 team would be special. But highly unlikely.
But its not just his control. His velocity has dropped perhaps as much as 5 mph. Generally, one lowers velocity as a tradeoff for better control. But in Perez’ case, he lost both velocity and control. I have never heard a convincing explanation for why he lost the velocity. His recent one hit performance in AAA is encouraging. I have this feeling that he can find himself and have a very good year. But I have little confidence that he would consistently put a number of good consecutive years together. Kind of like Jorge Julio who is wildly inconsistent from month to month.
Alex-
Great piece.
He just needs 11 minutes with Peterson…
Alright! Oliver Perez is the next Sandy Koufax! Yes! LOL! I’d be happy if he could just be the next Al Leiter!
Alex, this was a great historical perspective about what Perez faces in re-finding himself.
In terms of velocity, I am pretty sure that is a result of the mess his mechanics became. Otherwise, when he was struggling, he would not be bouncing between an 85 and 95 MPH fastball, like he was as recently as some of his Norfolk starts. Remember, it was not some outside general manager or scout, it was Roberto Hernandez, his teammate, that said that Pitsburgh screwed this guy up by trying to make him into a control pitcher. Idiotic.
Nobody can know if Perez is going to return to being a great major league pitcher. It is going to be really interesting to see how he develops (or re-develops). Given my optimistic nature, I think we have something special brewing…
Anyone know how his velocity was during that one hit performance?
i believe he was hitting 91-93 on the low fastball, and 93-96 on the high fastball. I mean it’s not easy to throw a one-hitter, 11 strikeout performance in triple-a, so therefore i believe he is on his way back. Plus, in Pitsburgh this season his velocity was 90-91 which isnt that great for a power pitcher, if he can get back to 93-96 consistently we have something special on our hands.
Couple things that come to my mind, first off is there a team that botches young studs more then pittsburgh? ie duke this year. And second you have to think that steriods may have had some part here. which is a sad statement on the state of the game.
My bet is he is a flame out. His value is that he gives the Mets depth to deal in the off season. There are teams that will believe because of his age and past that they can turn him around and get a low cost high ceiling pitcher. This may be his biggest value to the Mets yet.
I am not sure about a turnaround yet I really want to see him pitch and what the velocity and movement on pitches is. I am willing to guess that barring anything dramatic he will have a very good shot at being in the Mets rotation next year because of said of upside.
I have a theory on the velocity issue. Generally when a pitching coach finds a power pitcher that is all over the place, his first thought is “he’s overthrowing”. They tell him to concentrate on balance and slow down his windup. They will also work on his landing. What sometimes happens in this recreation process is that the pitcher starts slowing things down and “aiming” the ball. The results, lower MHP and longer HRs. Then a pitcher gets “John Franco/ Al Leiter (end of career) disease”. He is afraid to throw the ball over the plate and falls behind in the count and is no longer a good pitcher. Based on the comments above and Pittsburg’s fine coaching, this is a likely scenario. This can give us all hope that the bad trade, could become a legendary theft.
I’m of the belief that a change of scenery and pitching coaches is what Perez needed. Good point by Brian - pittsbrgh dosn’t do well with young pitchers
Ollie is still just a kid who’s prob thinking too much. As much as we all like to joke RP about his “10 minutes” quote he does a very good job with pitchers - give him an offseason to bring perez down to Alabama and spring training and we may have the old Perez at SHea next year
He’s not on the comp list- but when I saw perez pitch in 2004 I immediately had a alte 70s flash back- Ron Guidry when Guidry was a power pitcher-
the resemblence was uncanny, the wind up, arm angle, ball movement etc (Guidry in the 70s was a power pitcher- Guidry in the 80s was a completely different animal- a control finesse guy)
Guidry had horrific control problems in the minors- walking 5+ batters per 9 innings- until age 26 in the IL- his BB/9 dropped under 3 and his career took off- he had a rough 15 ip cup of coffee- but the next year he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
I watched Perez come up with San Diego(he was part of Bay trade for Giles) and he had the same problems then. Great stuff, no control. Back then he was 20, probably 170 lbs dripping wet, and still had serious heat. I’m not really sure where 04 came from, but I highly doubt it was roids. Like many pitchers, he’s got a serious problem that is going on between his ears and only time will tell if he figures it out. It probably hasn’t helped he cam up from the Mexican leagues I believe and spoke very little English…
I have a question about Perez that I am not sure if any can answer but what the hell. Do we know if the control issues are delivery related, pitch consistency or if his stuff moves so much it often moves in and out of the zone.
We need to give Oliver a chance when we clinch. I am sure Willie is thinking the same. We certainly need any available arms we can get, except Lima-time of course;)
i want to perez sat…not bannister philly is a lefthanded hitting team
Okay, here is my question. Did any of the pitchers you compared to Perez have a pitching
coach and organization that messed them up. Perez came into the Pirates as a power pitcher.
A pitcher that can strike out batters with a mean fastball and an amazing breaking pitch or two.
Then the Pirates for some strange reason decided to make him into Tom Glavine, and mess with his
head along with his mechanics. Isn’t it possible therefore, witht he supperior coaching style
in the New York Mets system, that he returns close to his 2004 form and become a dominating
pitcher like he can be?
I’d be happy if he were the next Dennis Cook
looks like oliver perez will get the start on Saturday since Brian Bannister is going on Friday in place of El Duque, Chris Cotter just reported. Oliver perez is supposed to start in about an hour so its gonna be interesting if he starts or not today for norfolk
I remember Pete Falcone well. His problem was between his ears and not mechanics. He would start a game and pitch brilliantly and then all of a sudden get bombed. When he was asked what happened he would admit that he just lost concentration. You could not predict when he would lose his concentration in a given game.
The legendary story on Sandy Koufax was that his catcher John Roseboro convinced him to stop trying to throw every pitch through the backstop. Koufax also suffered because of the bonus baby rules back then. He was forced to spend his first two years with the Dodgers in Brooklyn instead of being sent to the minor leagues. Perez at his best never had Koufax’s talent.
I wouldn’t even try to predict how Perez will turn out since we’re not really sure of what caused his demise nor do we really know what makes him tick as a human being.
I believe he was pulled from his start with Norfolk last night; is that right? If so, he’ll likely pitch Saturday, no?
Also all this happened within a few years:
1: They moved to Dodger Stadium (before that koufax’s home stats in both Ebbets and LA Colisseum were awful- his raod #s were always pretty good)
2: After Maris broke Ruth’s record bseball decided there was too much offense- they enlarged the strikezone- that gave a huge boost to power pitchers with iffy command
3: LA had a staff of power pitchers, and a pitcher’s park- they raised the mound higher and higher (after few years of complaints by visiting teams they were ordered by the league to lower it) and they let their infield grass grow.
The result was that when Koufax really went crazy- 1963-1966 and put up ERAs of 1.88, 1.74, 2.04 and 1.73-
he was pitching in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, in a league where the average ERAs were 3.29, 3.53, 3.54 and 3.60 The Dodger’s TEAM ERA was under 3.00 every year.
In 1969 when the strikezone was shrunk to its normal size and LA was ordered to shorten their mound, the Dodgers as a team increased their batting average by over 30 points and homeruns by 40%.
Koufax was a dominant pitcher, but those ERAs were almost as artificial as Barry Bond’s slugging percentages.
At his peak Koufax put up ERA+ (ERA relative to league) of 190, 187, 161, 160
Seaver in his 4 best years put up 193, 175, 169, 166
Seaver was as good as Koufax as his peak but his W-L wasn’t as good because Seaver’s teams were far weaker- the Met’s offense really sucked most years- but Koufax’s Dodger’s teams were good teams- which was hidden to some extent by the conditions in Dodger Stadium in the 60s.