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July 17, 2006
The Week in Geek: Looking Forward
The first half of the season (plus one series in Chicago) is in the books, and the Mets have a sizeable twelve game lead in the NL East. I’m not quite ready to count anyone out of it, particular with the Braves just coming off a sweep of the Padres in San Diego and continuing to haunt me in my dreams. The Mets’ first half went about as well as could be expected, but we all know there is a lot of season to go, and a lot of stories yet to be written for the 2006 Mets. Injuries: Pedro Martinez is on the disabled list with a hip injury and Jose Reyes has missed the last six games plus the All Star game with a laceration to his pinky, the result of an ill-advised headfirst slide into first base and the subsequent collision with Mike Jacobs’ spikes. Martinez’s injury has been followed up by a case of food poisoning and a trip to the emergency room for I.V. treatment. The Mets are fortunate to have bought themselves some breathing room with their first half play and are in a position to absorb longer-than-normal absences of Reyes and Martinez. Cliff Floyd: On May 12, Cliff Floyd was hitting .197/.294/.299 in 177 at-bats from the start of the season. Since then, and including a stint on the disabled list with an ankle sprain, Floyd has been reborn, hitting .324/.420/.559 in 102 at-bats, providing an anchor behind David Wright in the heart of the Mets’ lineup. Floyd has been hitting for power, drawing walks and getting hit by many a pitch. Any reasonable projection for Cliff this season would include some kind of dropoff in production from 2005, considering that he was a year older and figured to have less protection in the lineup, since he was now batting behind Wright instead of in front of him. Even with some natural regression I don’t think anyone expected him to fall of a — umm — precipice, as he did through the first month and a half. I don’t know if he can keep up his current pace, but anything remotely similar to it would be terrific. I should mention that Floyd’s resurgence has coincided almost too perfectly with the evaporation in production from… Carlos Delgado: On May 13, Carlos Delgado was hitting .299/.394/.613 and was the best hitter on the team. He had just come off a month in which he swatted a club record 9 homeruns and was being hailed as the missing piece to the Mets’ offensive puzzle. Since then, Delgado has batted just .209/.293/.412, worse than the .240/.322/.407 Doug Mientkiewicz hit as the Mets’ first baseman in 2005. For Delgado, who has been a consistent offensive force throughout his career, you really have to start wondering if something is physically bothering him that he isn’t letting on. He sat out basically the entire World Baseball Classic with an elbow injury, something he has suffered from in recent seasons including 2005. I have to believe that Delgado is too good a hitter to have performed so abysmally for the past two months if everything was fine, so we can only hope that if he is injured that he take some time off now so that his health can be assured if and when the Mets have more important games to play in October. Pitching: With Pedro on the DL and Orlando Hernandez getting lit up again on Sunday, the future of the Mets’ rotation is looking even murkier than it has been. Tom Glavine, who was terrific in April and May, has been lousy in June and July and the Mets’ offense was finally unable to bail him out after he stunk it up on Saturday. Steve Trachsel is generally mediocre and occasionally good, as he was on Friday, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in him keeping the Mets in a game against a decent offensive team. John Maine has looked pretty good and Mike Pelfrey has good stuff, but they both have to be considered relative unknown quantities at this point. We’ll get a better idea of what Pelfrey can do when he makes his second big league start on Tuesday against the surging Reds, this time presumably without seventeen runs of support behind him. The Trade Deadline: July 31st is just over two weeks away. There are a lot of interesting names out there, and it will be a big test for Omar Minaya to improve this team without mortgaging the future. You would think he has no intention of trading Lastings Milledge or Mike Pelfrey, but judging by what the Reds gave up for middle relief, the Mets may have to dig into the farm system if they plan on doing any kind of significant upgrading to the rotation. Really, that’s where they will be looking for help. The lineup is fine, and the bench has been great. The bullpen has had its ups and downs, but they still rank first overall in ERA among National League relief corps. We’ve all heard the names by now: Javier Vazquez, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez, Jon Lieber, Gil Meche. I really think the ball is in Minaya’s court on this one. There are a lot of teams still in contention and the Mets sport the biggest division lead in the majors. That is not necessarily a reason to stand pat, but it does mean that Minaya doesn’t have the desperation of a team doing the chasing, and that gives him something of an advantage as the trade deadline approaches. 146 Responses to “The Week in Geek: Looking Forward”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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hes still there on my computer listed as no 10 right under wagner in the stats section?
Thats a Really good point.
Interesting site i found on 2006 MLB player contracts
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004_12_27_mlbcontracts_archive.html
Hes still in the minors wdrkr. It seems he hasnt fared much better there either. Its pretty sad when your era is actually 2 1/2 runs higher than Limas. I think thats when you know its time to hang em up. His stats are:
w-l era ip h bb k
1-2 6.48 16.2 21 7 4
Limas
w-l era ip h bb k
6-5 4.03 82.2 80 13 57
Wow Meche is making 3.7 mil for 1 year hes signed for next yr for 4.2 million, would be an ok #3 or a solid #4 starter for next yr
I still take him over lima time, lol. That Collazo kid I guess has found it hard to make the transition to AAA. His era is over 5.00. He looked great for bingy. Maybe he will settle down after a few starts. I also heard that Collazo was on the peurto rican world team. So he must be pretty good or at least someone thinks so.
Wdwrkr. Right now the way our starters have been he’d be our #1 guy, lol. Wait #2 Traschel was, is ,and always will be #1, lol.
Excellent post. I made this point all winter long (and I think people like sweetlew or argon will back me up). What made the 86 Mets so great was the variety of pitchers you saw (i.e., heat from Gooden and Sid, then mostly “junk” from Ojeda). Pelfrey looks like that kind of hard 90s thrower, but he obviously needs to mature so I don’t expect miracles from him right now, although you never know.
Anyway, I think a trade is imminent, I really do. I can feel it. Omar knows he doesn’t have enough weapons for the post season and I would not be surprised if both pitching AND offense were imported. How that gets done is another question.
I think right there proves that seattle probably wont get rid of Meche. Hes still relatively cheap. We’d pretty much have to blow them away with an offer. Which I dont think Minaya will. I would give up diaz, bannister, and maine. That may get it done, but I think minaya would ask for mor than meche in return.
Does anyone know anything about Meche, besides stas? Like does he throw hard?
The comparison of Jacobs to Delgado is apples and oranges - and simply pointless. Jacobs is in a MUCH less pressure-filled situation so there’s just no way to predict what he could’ve done as a Met over the course of the year. I have no regrets whatsoever that the Mets got Delgado.
“Ninety percent I’ll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I’ll probably waste.”
– Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary
I would make that trade also, metswin2006.
But I really think Diaz has very little trade value at the moment - at best, MAYBE as a throw-in.
Yes, I totally agree. Sometimes you have to throw stats out the window. I mean Gary Carter was only batting I believe .255 and pulled everything, but his prescence in the line-up was HUGE. Same as Del-got-one. He just fits so well in the middle of wright and beltran. Plus look at the years there having. I dont think they have those #’s with Jacobs. Jacobs will be a pretty descent hitter sure, but Delgado adds a whole lot more.
I was wrong meche is only signed for 06, hes a free agent next yr so maybe his price wouldnt bee that high.
Yea, I just think Minaya would want more in return. He has been a tough negogiator during the deadline. I think last year he didnt even make a deal. Hopefully he realizes the need for pitching and gets it done. I would think they may want Milo. I am not sure if I would do Milledge for Meche. I have gone back and forth on that one. But man I would have to think hard on that. I mean we can always get another OF, and we rarely play seattle so we wouldnt see him. But I just have this feeling he may be a special player. Win now or hold on to the future for tommorrow. Tough descison and one I am glad I dont have to make, lol.
All the possible free agents next yr - alot of good names on this list
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/possible-free-agents.html
I do agree with you. I just feel somehow a few trades will be done. Just not sure of for who and what palyers we give up. I just pray we dont get abreu or L hernandez.
Thats a great site about contracts. It was down for a while but now I see the owner was updating. everything is current as of 6/7 i think.
Wow Barry Bonds is a free agent next year? Lets pick him up. Than we can really have something to talk about on here, lol. We can even add Sheffield hes a free agent too. Than they can “work out” together.
I tell you a name that pops out at me is Jason Schmidt. Hes got some awesome #s. Julio lugo at second and Jermaine dye in the OF would make me happy too.
Normally, I would love Abreu (I think Burrell, the fans, and the pitching is the problem there), but can Abreu and Beltran be 2 of your big bats? Combined they would barely have a pulse. I think you can roll with one of those “types”, but 2 may change the teams balance from 86mets to 94 mets…
Yeah Barry and Shef can be ushers in the new stadium
Schmidt is getting old and is no longer a power pitcher no thanks. I’ll take Lugo and Uncle Cliffy back on a cheap deal with Milo in RF and X as a super sub.
I agree its time to resign Cliff Floyd to a 2 yr 10 mil deal, and save the rest of the freed up cash for an ace pitcher and a #4
Next yrs Starting rotation Zito, Pedro, Glavine, Meche, Pelfrey Whoever out of the 3 rookie pitchers, Pelfrey, Bannister, Maine , steps up gets the 5th spot
I would love to have floyd believe me. I just dont think they will. I really hope they do though. Schmidt is gonna be 34 next year, so your right I wouldnt throw a big contract at him. But some team will I’m sure. Zito is gonna command some big bucks and I am not completely sold on him. Although switching leagues may change his career completly around.
I would sign up for that, as long as we dont get in some stupid bidding war, were we have to give Zito like 6 years.
The reason i can go alog with Zito is because of his previous relationship with the Jacket
I am not jumping up and down but he will be the best available and is left-handed, and has had some success with jacket. The potential of a bidding war with the Yanks bothers me from the standpoint of possibly losing to them or having them drive up the price on the Mets.
I think thats what I am scared of too. The yankees need pitching too. I dont really want to get into a bidding war with them. Steinbrenner has some deep pockets, plus they may go real long term.
I think the mets will pony up a comparable offer to the Bronx Baron and Zito will choose the mets.
Of course that could mean a 6-year deal or worse so be prepared.
With The Jacket in our corner I dont see how Zito could choose the yankees. I also may be biased but personnel wise I dont see how Zito could turn down a chance to play with Beltran the Prince n the Professor. We have the young studs, yanks have the old duds.
WOW. Angel Hernandez got into a argument with a coach tonite and threw him outta the game. the coach threw his hat at angel hernandez during the argument at some point. Angel picked it up and ran over to the stands and gave the coach’s hat to a fan.
unbelievable
Anyone watching baseball tonight? Angel Hernandez, no stranger to Mets fans, threw out somebody with a flick of his hand, it seemed like a flamboyant way to throw someone out. Anyway, Dodger (not sure who)throws his hat in disgust, and Angel picks up the hat and hands it to a fan! I can’t really believe that. Talk about an umpire who thinks people want to be watching him.
hahahahaha
A-643 had 3 errors tonight and struck out with the bases loaded in the 7th. He literally got boo’d outta Yankee Stadium.
He got removed from the game later because he allegedly fouled a ball off his foot.
That from the distingushed mlbtraderumors.com.
If the Mets do get RoHern back here, I think it *MIGHT* set the stage for Heilman to be dealt as part of a larger deal.
On Zito:
Nah, the Yankees will do what they ALWAYS do: go after yet another big bat and ignore the pitching :)
Screw Meche the guy i really want Erik Berdard from Baltimore. I would trade Milledge for him in a package in a heartbeat.
If you think about it Milledge has very little place in the Mets lineup currently assembled with the pieces that will be here for the next half decade, those being Reyes Wight and Beltran.
Beltran and Wright as the #3 and #4 and Reyes leading off most likely which leaves two open spots that are deserving of being filled by a “top prospect” neither of which I believe Milledge can fill sucessfully. The best lineup I can configure with Milledge is with Milledge leading off and Reyes batting behind him.
I think Milledge is as toolsy as Reyes when he came but Reyes has come very far from the Reyes he was last year and I highly highly doubt that Milledge will develop that quickly. I’m not saying that Milledge isn’t worth of being a top 5 position prospect I’m simply saying that until he develops fully into the Milledge everyone is projecting he is limited in terms of lineup options. Personally I’d rather have Berdard a solid lefty who still have the potential to develop into an ace. Obviously if u can get Willis Omar get on that now.
Orioles have said Bedard is untouchable I believe.
If Omar is working to bring in RoboHernandez and Oliver Perez I say go for it. Even if Perez doesnt help us that much now, he has that power arm and potential front-end of the rotation stuff. I hate his stats since 2004 and he walks the ballpark but I love his arm.
I agree with you completely on the Pirates guys DD420 but when was the last time that site got any rumor correct?
On Zito I don’t mind the 5 year 65-75 mill contract so much because that is probably what it will take to get him, but I don’t want the Yankee bidding to make it 7 or 8 years at 15 or 16 per, that could kill the organization financial in the long run. I can dream of teaming him and his crafty Lefty arm with Pelfrey the power righty for a nasty 1-2 punch.
Whoa! 7-8 years?! Now you’re almost talking ARod territory! I seriously doubt it will be over 5 years especially given how badly burned the Yanks were with Pavano, Wright and Randy. I don’t think ANY team would give a pitcher 7-8 years nowadays.
MFS71, I agree that it is crazy, but I refuse to ever put anything past the Yankees especially with how pitching starved they have been the last few years, and then throw in the fact that he could be pitching for the Mets. I could see George losing his mind remember Kevin Brown got that sick deal.
there are many, many teams so starbed for starting pitching: just look at how J Weaverv performed 2nite ina Cards uniform he ahd no business wearing,,, can’t we please trade Heilman as a pretender stater before hois value absolutely drops thu the floor…?
there are many, many teams so starved for starting pitching: just look at how Jeff Weaver performed 2nite in a Cards uniform he had no business wearing,,, can’t we please trade Heilman as a pretender stater before his value absolutely drops thru the floor…?
Ellis Dee I assume your statement “That from the distinguished mlbtraderumors.com.” was dripping in sarcasm since MLB Trade Rumors at times is about as accurate as Gotham Baseball.
You guys started me reminiscing. If I remember correctly wasn’t Ray Knight a Golden Gloves Champion? He cold-cocked Davis.
Tim McCarver (Mets announcer at the time) used to constantly rave about the diversity of the Mets starting staff. Gooden had his 98 mph fastball and a curve that McCarver used to call “Lord Charles,” Darling actually threw hard and had a very good curveball which he later stopped throwing b/c he fell in love with the splitter, Ojeda had his junk from the left side (this was before he cut off the tip of his finger playing landscaper) and El Sid only threw about 88 mph but he had a funky motion that screwed up the hitters timing. El Sid was a fly ball pitcher and Davy Johnson did not want to start him against the Bosox in Fenway yet El Sid relieved there and was outstanding. BTW Rick Aguilera had a nasty sinking fastball and was later traded to the Twins in the Frank Viola deal and become the Twins and became an excellent closer for them.
That being said I’ll take the ‘69 starting staff over the ‘86 one and I’m saying this without looking at the stats.
Sorry for the length of this.
Hahah.
Speaking of free agents, I read an interesting article on that Matsuzaka that said he may be posted after this season. I’d rather throw money at him than Zito.