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July 3, 2006
Mets By The Numbers
No, I’m not talking about the greatest website ever dedicated to Mets uniform numerology. Over at my blog, I post statistical previews of each of the Mets’ opponents, normally the morning of the first game of the series. It’s basically a snapshot of the team and its players and how they’ve been doing this season, and it serves as a refresher (or sometimes an introduction) to the opposing team and their performance to date. Since I started doing these breakdowns of the Mets’ opponents, I’ve had countless requests (okay, two requests) to post a similar report for the Mets. Seeing as we are at the true halfway point in the season and it’s Independence Monday and a lot of you aren’t around anyway, I’ve decided to run the numbers for our favorite team. Record NL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA NY Mets 48 33 .593 -- 22-15 26-18 424 363 Philadelphia 37 44 .457 11.0 18-23 19-21 392 430 Florida 35 43 .449 11.5 18-20 17-23 360 359 Atlanta 35 47 .427 13.5 16-21 19-26 392 415 Washington 35 48 .422 14.0 17-20 18-28 362 422 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 48 33 424 363 46.5 34.5 47.5 33.5 46.8 34.2 W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Mets have played slightly better than their expected record. At its most granular application, Baseball Prospectus figures the Mets to be roughly a 47-34 team, just a shade worse than their actual 48-33 record. The team’s real record is what matters the most, though a significant disparity between expectation and reality is often a good indicator of future performance. Starting Rotation W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP Pedro Martinez 7 4 3.45 101.2 6.55 9.83 2.48 1.24 24.2 Tom Glavine 11 2 3.34 107.2 8.44 6.27 2.76 1.25 30.7 Steve Trachsel 7 4 4.70 90.0 10.10 4.20 4.00 1.20 11.8 Orlando Hernandez 4 8 4.89 38.2 9.08 6.98 2.79 1.40 5.2 Alay Soler 2 3 6.00 45.0 10.00 4.60 4.20 1.40 (-2.6) () parentheses denote negative numbers italics denote left-handed pitchers Pedro and Glavine have been terrific in the first half and were rewarded by Astros’ manager Phil Garner with selections to the All Star team. Trachsel has been passably effective, and Hernandez and Soler, apart from the occasional gem, have been erratic at best and abysmal at worst. WPA Top Two WPA Bottom Two Starting Lineup Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank Paul Lo Duca C 283 .288 .329 .400 3 0 6.2 11/25 Carlos Delgado* 1B 333 .259 .342 .531 0 0 14.8 7/21 Jose Valentin# 2B 176 .287 .329 .525 2 2 10.5 10/22 Jose Reyes# SS 382 .291 .349 .477 34 9 29.5 1/19 David Wright 3B 356 .324 .393 .580 11 3 36.3 2/19 Cliff Floyd* LF 217 .233 .323 .392 4 0 (-0.7) 18/21 Carlos Beltran# CF 315 .293 .400 .639 12 3 40.2 1/22 Xavier Nady RF 218 .258 .318 .480 2 1 3.9 11/19 * asterisks denote left-handed batters # pound signs denote switch-hitters rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA Wright, Reyes and Beltran are all going to the All Star game and deservedly so. Beltran and Reyes are the class of the league at their respective positions, and Wright trails only Florida’s Miguel Cabrera in VORP among NL third basemen. Jose Valentin has been far better than expected at second base given roughly half the plate appearances of an average regular. Floyd and Nady have both missed a chunk of time due to injury, though neither was consistently impressive when healthy. For all of his intangibles, Paul Lo Duca has only been better than roughly half of the NL catchers at the plate. I’m not sure that’s the definition of an All Star, but he’s going nonetheless. WPA Top Two WPA Bottom Two Bullpen ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP Billy Wagner 2.39 37.2 5.97 11.47 4.06 0.72 12.4 Duaner Sanchez 2.68 43.2 7.01 6.60 4.12 0.62 13.5 Aaron Heilman 4.40 45.0 8.80 7.60 3.20 0.80 6.4 Chad Bradford 2.43 29.2 6.98 7.28 1.82 0.30 12.0 Pedro Feliciano 1.74 31.0 6.97 8.13 2.03 0.29 14.0 Heath Bell 3.68 22.0 12.68 7.77 3.68 1.23 1.9 Darren Oliver 2.45 44.0 6.55 6.34 2.66 1.02 16.8 Heath Bell continues to have astronomical hit rates despite otherwise solid peripherals. His walk rate is up this year, though he has generally been decent in limited action. Darren Oliver has been a godsend in long relief and is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Pirates. Both Sanchez and Heilman were lights out to begin the season but have since hit rough stretches. Billy Wagner has outstanding peripheral stats, except of course for his walk rate which is terrible. Not shown in the chart above are blown saves or FAP (Fan Agony Percentage), neither of which would be in Wagner’s favor. WPA Top Two WPA Bottom Two Bench Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP Chris Woodward IF 101 .233 .316 .326 1 1 (-1.4) Eli Marrero UT 20 .294 .368 .706 2 0 2.9 Endy Chavez* OF 178 .275 .316 .400 6 0 2.1 Julio Franco 1B 83 .299 .349 .442 4 0 4.1 Ramon Castro C 107 .258 .340 .409 0 0 2.2 Not much to complain about here, though Woodward has been a little disappointing. Marrero has hit well with the Mets, and Endy Chavez might be my favorite player on this team. Franco has been solid as a pinch hitter and mentor, and Ramon Castro is good enough to start for a number of teams. Manager Willie Randolph loves Subway sandwiches and is in his second full season as manager of the Mets. Here are some of his tendencies: # Times NL Rank Pinch Hit 107 15/16 Stolen Base Attempts 104 1/16 Sacrifice Bunts 48 2/16 Key Injuries Brian Bannister Payroll Team Payroll MLB Rank $100,901,085 5/30 ———- 27 Responses to “Mets By The Numbers”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I like to look @ the Vorp every monday so thanks for saving me sometime.
This is a great comparison piece to hold up alongside the opposition (as detailed at Amazin’ Avenue). To me the big surprise here — though I ought to know it already — is the excellent performance of the Met bullpen, with almost every member having a double-digit positive VORP. They really are much better than Met fans generally think.
Off-topic: Do you all do browser testing? This page layout looks terrible in Safari, with the stats trailing out of the column to the right and under the right-hand column, and the comments in a ridiculously huge font. Time for a web geek to join the Mets geeks?
The site looks fine in Mozilla and IE, which account for roughly 96% of the browser market share. Customizing a website to appear correctly on every single computer screen in the world is a daunting task. This site is generally coded within the W3C guidelines, and if it looks strange on Safari I would guess it’s something with the browser.
It’s not that I don’t care how it looks in Safari, but I don’t own a Mac and have no means to test the appearance of MG on Safari; I thought Macs had a “fix all” button that would make annoyances like this go away? ;-)
If someone would like to sponsor Mac testing of the site’s layout feel free to e-mail me and I will provide an address for you to send a Mac.
Incidentally, are there any problems viewing the site in Firefox for OSX?
Great info, and even moreso your posts on the opposition — I’m bookmarking your blog.
That said, I think this quote contradicts the numbers you’ve posted:
If you pro-rate El Duque’s stats to match Trachsel’s innings, El Duque wins in VORP. Except for HR/9, all of El Duque’s peripherals are better. Both have had consistency problems, good starts and bad — they’ve basically been the same guy, with a slight nod to El Duque. I think you’ve got to clump them together, and say Soler is crap, but it’s not fair to put El Duque in that category. Plus he’s not boring as hell to watch…
Pedro Feliciano is in the bottom two for Mets relievers? That can’t be right.
I’m looking at this page on Safari, and it looks fine to me…
Is this a real stat? How is it figured?
Simple, how much does seing the guy come into a close game make you want to throw up :)
I have taken the plunge my fellow geeks and started a blog. I will not pretend to be able to do as good a job as the guys who run MetsGeek, but I wil give it my best. For those who care to take a look:
Ed’s Blue and Orange Cafe
not true! the tables bleed over in firefox (on my laptop anyway). it is much better if you make the window full size, but sadly the vorp numbers disappear into the advertisement sidebar.
it always looks good on AA! keep up the good work ES.
How do you like me now, Geeks?
I am viewing this through Safari (on a Mac) and everything is in place and looks good
But viewing this, Trachsel doesn’t look very good. With more than ten hits per nine innings, the low numbers of k’s and the high numbers of bb’s, its amazing that he has done as good (=mediocre) as he has.
Mets starting pitching needs help and I hope it comes from within. I have stated numerous times that I’d like to see Heilman in the rotation. What’s Bannister’s story? Is he throwing rehab games?
Does Pelfrey stand a resonable chance of further developing his other pitches with the Mets during bullpen tune-ups or is the only real way in the minors experimenting against live pitching?
Yanks signed a bonus baby for 2.2 million dollars named Jesus Montero, a catcher from Venezuela. From BA.com
What is this safari you all talk about. The only one I know is at Disney :)
FWIW, I have no prblems, but I use IE. I have no idea how to use anything else.
Cy Trachsel is not very good. He is a #5, a #4 on a bad day for the rotation. We need a #3, or a #2 that allows Glavine to be #3.
Of course, it is easy to ask for, but much harder to get.
Frankly, I do not see Heilman as a #3, maybe a #4. The problem is, he needs to be stretched. Last night might have been a good chance to do it if he was available.
Might be a good idea to do it tonight if Oliver only can go 4.
Crap, they are all but conceding tonights game. I like Oliver out of the pen just fine, but as a starter, not so much.
I kow, Maholm is not great, but with the way this team is playing, he may pull a Joe Mays on them.
That’s for WPA, which doesn’t necessary correlate with overall production. It’s a somewhat useful measure of “clutch”, which apparently Feliciano hasn’t been very.
Get a bigger monitor, mate! Would you prefer the tables wrap? 1024×768 should be plenty large to show everything on this post. If it doesn’t, my apologies.
Hard to argue with this; I’ve never been a fan of Trachsel’s.
Off-topic on the formatting again: I can’t tell how to fix the stat tables (though I think they should wrap if the window’s too narrow), as the formatting code is a bit obscure here, but it looks like the “huge comments” issue might well be caused by an open h2 tag (id=”comments”, mistakenly closed as an h3) right above the comments. Closing that tag fixes the comment typesetting for me.
How things look in Safari should be relatively similar to Konqueror’s rendering, since they’re based on the same core technology — that might be a way to do more design testing without getting a Mac.
Ed, in answer to you r question (in your blog)
The Mets are now worshipping Jobu in hopes they can hit Curveballs and mediocre pitchers, young and old. It worked for the greatest president Holllywood has ever given us.
Great post Eric I enjoy this work up on the competition on AA and it was cool to see it on the Mets.
While on Daily News live Adam Rubin just that Soler has a calf injury John Maine will be getting a start, and Pelfrey will probably get a start this week.
Soler has been sent down and Main has been called up to pitch tonight.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/probable_pitchers.jsp?c_id=nym
Then why not use Oliver last night before it got completely out of hand?
I guess they hadnt figured on Maine being called up last night. In the article about Wille says he doesnt expect Oliver to be able to pitch more the 50-60 pitches in a game as the reason hes not starting today
I just hope Maine does better then his last start for the mets 5.1 ip , 4 er, 2bb, 0 k
Im assuming he did that bad because of his finger problem. I for one will be rootin for him. Anyone hear whats going on with Bannister?
I’m rooting for Maine to do well.
Nice catch. That h2/h3 bug has probably been in the code forever; I’ve fixed that, so hopefully it will resolve the comments issue you are having. The stats tables are a different animal; since they’re contained in [pre][/pre] blocks they are treated by browsers as single, unbreakable strings of text, almost as an image is treated. Maybe cutting down on spaces in between columns would help. What is your resolution and how far do the comments shoot out the side?
Thanks — the comments are looking good now.
In a browser window around 800-850 pixels wide, with a default font at 14pt (this affects how Safari renders font sizes specified in CSS), about half the preformatted stats here are out of the column — say around the beginning of the H/9 column in the starting rotation stats. It takes a browser window roughly 1100-1200 pixels wide to get the VORP column for the starting rotation to be visible rather than hidden by ads. Might be helped by some massaging of the pre tag in your CSS stylesheet, but this is much nicer already with the readable comments.
Not that anybody is reading this thread anymore, but I put some code in place to auto-wrap pre-formatted stats. Wrapping makes the tables difficult to read, but I feel it’s preferable to having the table kick out the right side of the middle frame into the sidebar.