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May 26, 2006
Upcoming Series: Florida Marlins Pitchers
After a solid 2-1 series win against the Phillies, the Mets take to the road, and bring their traveling show of old, reliable starting pitchers with them. With a four game lead over the second place Phillies, the Mets will go into Dolphin Stadium with the same gameplan that made them successful in the early season — beat up on the weaker team. The Marlins, however, have gotten on a little bit of a hot streak themselves, sweeping the Chicago Cubs to raise their record to 14-31. In this series the Marlins will throw their best three starting pitchers, and hope to sustain their recent, short run of success. In Game 1 Pedro Martinez (5-0 2.82) will go for win number six when he takes on young righthander Josh Johnson (3-2, 2.62). In a Battle of the Lefties Tom Glavine (7-2, 2.48) goes to the mound against future Diamondback Dontrelle Willis (1-5, 5.12). And, in the finale, “El Duque” Orlando Hernandez (2-4, 6.11) makes his first start in a Mets uniform against Ricky Nolasco (3-1, 2.89) who’s filled in admirably so far for the injured Sergio Mitre. Game 1: Josh Johnson What’s the Story? Originally Johnson started the season pitching out of the bullpen, where he was fairly solid. He appeared in seven games, going twelve and two thirds innings and allowed five runs off of seven hits (and nine walks). However lefty Jason Vargas was atrocious in his handful of starts, and manager Joe Girardi decided to swap the two. Since then Johnson has been lights out — he’s undefeated in his four starts, holding opposing hitters to a .200 batting average and only giving up five runs in twenty-three and two thirds innings. Even his control issues have been — somewhat — worked out. Johnson sports a mid-90’s sinking fastball, a solid slider and a decent changeup. Last Year: The Mets did not face Johnson last season. What to Expect: Johnson’s never been considered a top prospect, as his ceiling has always been considered as that of a third or fourth starter’s. Control has been a big issue for the kid, though it’s gotten better as the season’s progressed. Though his slider has continued to improve, neither of his secondary pitches are strong big league “out” pitches, which can lead to trouble — though he’s managed to avoid that trouble so far this year. He likes to come inside against lefties, and he’s kept them in check so far this season. He’ll work predominantly down and away against righthanders. When he falls behind in a count he’ll throw fastball after fastball, and the natural sink of his pitches make him a groundball machine. Hitters should wait on him and make sure he’s got his command of the strike zone before they start hacking. Game 2: Dontrelle Willis What’s the Story? For Willis’ original scouting report, click here. This Year: Though Willis has struggled against some teams this season, the Mets weren’t one of them. Like usual, Dontrelle was fairly dominant against the Mets — though, thanks to Tom Glavine matching him inning from inning, he was unable to come up with a win. Over eight innings the Mets got two runs (a David Wright two-run triple) off of seven hits. Willis walked none and struck out four. What to Expect: The D-Train always falls off the tracks at some point during the season. Always. Whether or not a team’s offense will capitalize on the tons of hits he’ll give up during that time is another story, but Willis will inevitably have a three or four start run where he totally gets out of whack. The bad news? It looks like that time is over. To kick off May Willis went fourteen and two thirds innings over three starts, where he allowed twenty-one runs and gave up an incredible thirty hits. However, over his last two starts he’s been back to normal — seventeen innings, fourteen hits, four runs. We can hope for the best, especially with Tom Glavine on the mound, but a fully focused Dontrelle against the Mets is never good. Game 3: Ricky Nolasco What’s the Story? Nolasco was one of the pitchers sent to the Marlins in the Juan Pierre trade, along with Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto. So far the deal has paid solid dividends for the Fish, especially in light of Nolasco’s unexpected success (he was being considered to be left unprotected by the Cubs in the Rule V Draft). Nolasco has always been considered a middle-of-the-road/future number four starter kinda prospect, and really struggled in his first and only stint in AAA. So far, however, big league hitters are having trouble with the righthander. Nolasco’s another Marlins pitcher that features a heavy sinking fastball, this one comes in around the 90-92 mark, a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He’ll also work in the occasional, and pretty lousy, slider. Last Year: This is Nolasco’s first season in the Majors. What to Expect: Nolasco’s made a career in the minor leagues on groundballs and good control. So far, one of those has carried over. As is prone to happen to young pitchers in their first go around in the bigs, Nolasco’s control has been spotty this season, especially as a starter (five walks in eleven innings). He’s also given up his fair share of hits, but has been lucky to face some average offenses in his two starts — the Braves got five hits and two runs off him in three and a third innings of work, while he was able to hold the Cubs to a run off of four hits in seven innings. Nolasco throws a lot of fastballs and a lot of curves — both of which induce a lot of ground balls. Lefties have killed him so far this year (.308/.383/.462 in thirty-eight at-bats), and, probably for good reason, he pitches almost exclusively away from them. Against righthanders, however, Nolasco is willing and able to spot his pitches anywhere on the plate. He throws far more curves to righties, and will usually throw it as his out pitch when he’s got two strikes on a hitter. Just like the Mets should do with Johnson, they should let Nolasco prove he can throw strikes before they start to take their cuts. Overall: The Mets’ inability to hit with runners in scoring position once again reared it’s ugly head yesterday, and if it keeps up in this Marlins series it could mean trouble. The Mets are facing two rookie pitchers and Dontrelle Willis, all of which give the Mets trouble. The Marlins offense has been pretty up and down, but I imagine the pitchers the Mets will throw at them in this series will keep their run totals low. So, it’s up to the Mets offense to help out and get these starters some “W”s. The Mets should, by all means, win two out of three here. For some reason, I don’t like the Pedro start — probably because the bullpen’s blown his last three starts. I’ll say the Mets take the Glavine and Duque starts, go 2-1, and come back home in good shape for a rumble with the first place Diamondbacks. Predicted Record: 24-22 19 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Florida Marlins Pitchers”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Overconfidence vs this group of hurlers wont get us anywhere. I saw Nolasco’s start against the Braves and I was impressed. I dont know much about Johnson but we know that willis loves pitching against us. We are going to have to scrap against this group. someone yest. proclaimed this was an AAA team, they are not. As long as wee kepp their hitters off balance, we should do well
This should be a sweep, but seeing as how this is the Mets we are talking about, I’m sure Mr. Willis will manage to shut down this inconsistent offense for a complete game 2 hitter.
I say 2 outta 3.
i like 2 of 3 too. But I think Pedro will take it deep into the game this time. Young hitters are kept off balance for him, and you know the whole team is going to push for a W in his start given the past three. plus he gets the xtra day. Let hope for a win tonight and 8 from pedro!
Chris in GA - I think I made that comment yesterday regarding the marlins being a AAA team.
It was really directed at the position players on that team (outside of Cabrera).
But they’ve played more like a MLB team recently, even though beating the cubs right now is about a notch above beating the royals right now.
I’m always willing to sign for 2 out of 3 against anybody, Yankees or Marlins. Too many things can freakin’ go wrong. Don’t be sweep greedy. Play .660 ball and you win 109 games, no?
Well . . . “no” is right. Play .667 ball and you win 108.
But we’ll invoke the ole’ “Neighborhood Play” here and let it slide, ok?
Nice post, Andrew. We should take 2 out of 3, but who knows? That’s what makes baseball more interesting than other sports - it’s less predictable, and that’s the beauty of the game.
The Marlins aren’t really THAT bad. They have some fine hitters in their lineup, including Cabrera, Hermeda, Ramirez, Willingham, and Uggla. Mike Jacobs has been walking this year so he’s been something productive at least too. It’s that pitching staff that reeks. Willis is good when he’s on, but who else do they have? Petit and Sanchez should be good in the future, but they aren’t ready yet. Josh Johnson is decent and Scott Olsen might be good someday too. The bullpen is horrendous as well. They just are a very bad team, but because they have some good hitters, they aren’t completely hopeless like the Royals seem to be right now. I guess I’d be OK with 2 of 3, but I really want a sweep here.
You got me on that one, Ken. I was guesstimatin’.
I wonder about this series. We’d better not have a letdown after playing so many good teams over the last 3 weeks. And they can score some runs too, as they had 9 in one game against the Cubs.
The key is how we hit with runners in scoring position. I don’t see them rallying againsttus so if they win, they will likely lead early because we can’t drive runners in. So if we get some early leads, I don’t think there’ll be much drama this weekend.
Sorry, Accuracy Police gotta step in here. The Braves and Cubs are NOT “some average offenses.” The Braves dropped from 2nd in the NL in runs to 4th in the last 2 days, while the Cubs have been last in the NL for a while. Nolasco has been “lucky” to face one terrible offense and one excellent offense.
We’ve never seen Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco; surely at least one of them will dominate us. We’ll get some walks, but who’s gonna drive them in?
Wright looked messed up last night — Myers got a call on a slider 6 inches outside, and after that Wright was waving at stuff away for the rest of the game.
Beltran seems to be in an “all or nothing” mode. I’m glad none of these Marlins pitchers throws a curve…
Let’s hope some ground balls find some holes. And I bet Floyd will put some holes in Jacobs at first with a few rockets.
Jacobs has been very productive for a .220 hitter. He has 27 RBI’s despite that average, which puts him on pace to drive in close to 100. In his first 71 games in the Majors, Jacobs has 16 HR and 50 RBI’s with a .257 average.
So the Mets have never seen Josh “Sandy Koufax” johnson and Ricky “Bob Gibson” Nolasco. Thats what I was afraid of.
Going into this I figured we could either sweep this series or lose a bunch of 2-1, 3-1 games. Now that I have read that the mets have never faced these guys, I am officially terrified. Lets get into their bullpen. Go Mets!!!!!!
Cmon guys these are the Florida Marlins. Half these guys were rejects in our farm system. I am not worried about these guys. We beat them up in new york and will continue to do it again. They scored like crazy on the cubbies, we have 3 seasoned veteran pitchers going against them. I love our chances for a sweep. This group of Mets fears know one. Squish the Fish!!!!!
If one of them does dominate this erratic offense (which is certainly possible), and Willis performs his usual black magic against this club, then you are lookin at a 1-2 for this three game series.
It certainly is a tricky series to predict. And that is what worries me about this club. A truly dominant franchise should have no problem taking 2 outta 3 from this Marlins team. But the Mets may very well have problems with this series simply because of pitchers that they are facing.
Still, I’m sticking with my 2-1 prediction. Can’t go back now!
I’ve got to disagree with this statement. Every team loses to every team in baseball. That’s just the way the game is designed — over the course of a 162 game season, you’re not going to win every series against a weaker ballclub every time out. It’s like the old saying goes, “The game isn’t played on paper.”
Look no further than across town at the Yankees — 297-189 the last three years, and they’ve been struggling against the Devil Rays that whole time. They’re still a dominant franchise, regardless. The real test of a team, in my opinion at least, is how well they play against the tougher teams. The Mets have done well in that regard so far.
And I would have to disagree with you.
With such a solid defense behind them, Pedro, Glavine, and Trax should be able to handle this very young Marlins line-up with relative ease.
On the offensive end, Reyes, Lo Duca, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Floyd, Nady, and Matsui should have absoluely no problem scratching enough runs out against these pitchers so that thier pitching/defense can hold down the fort and win the games. Unfortunately this group has yet to get together on the same page. They constantly leave runners on base, missing many opportunities.
I am not an idiot. I am fully aware of the fact that they simply can not win them all. But against a team like the Marlins (especially with Willis struggling), they should be able to sweep this series. Contrary to what you obviously believe, these are the games that a truly dominant team who has hopes of not only making the playoffs, but going far into them, should win. Because while good teams certainly need to perform well against other good teams in order to show that they do indeed belong amongst the elite, they also need to take advantage of the weaker teams in an effort to pad that lead in their division.
But as I stated above, I don’t think that will be the case. Two out of three this time around, even though I would love to see them do what they are fully capable of seeing as how they are sending up their 1,2,3 starters in that order.
I’m always of the opinion that, if you lose to a bad team, it’s okay so long as you played well.
If a team comes out and your starter doesn’t have it and you lose, that’s fine. Losing close games to a bad team, however, is the worst kind of loss. The reason bad teams are bad is because they can’t pitch. The Marlins can score runs, but their bullpen stinks.