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May 11, 2006
  
Interview: BA’s Matt Meyers (Part I)

Matt Meyers covers the Mets farm system for Baseball America. He compiled the Mets top thirty list for their 2006 prospect handbook which can be purchased here.

MetsGeek.com: It has been said that Alay Soler’s slider is the best in the Mets organization, and that includes the Major League club. Do you see him making an making an impact in either the rotation or the bullpen in 2006?

Matt Meyers: I am not sure of how much of an impact he will make, but I do see him getting a shot out of the bullpen. The Mets signed him with the expectation that he would be in the big leagues quickly, and I don’t think they are too concerned about ruining his psyche considering he is 26-years-old. If he is still dominating after a few Double-A outings, I would guess he will move quickly, the Mets want to see what they have after two years of waiting

MG: Lastings Milledge and his power have been a point of contention. Do you think he can hit 25-30 homers in the bigs at his peak? Do you think a comparison to Gary Sheffield with a little less power and a bit more speed is far off? Do you think his newfound discipline is for real, or is just a case of a good player not getting pitched to?

MM: They say power is the last thing to come, and scouts believe Milledge has the bat speed to hit some homers, but I don’t see him being a guy who can hit 25-30 consistently. The Sheffield comp is a generous one, but as he dominates Triple-A, it is more likely he can approach the profile you suggest. Even if he is being pitched around, it is good to see him laying off pitches out of the zone. It is only a month, but one has to be encouraged by the improvement he has made in regards to plate discipline. If what he has done thus far in Triple-A is for real, he could turn out to be better then I thought, and I already thought he was going to be pretty good.

MG: Henry Owens is dominating in relief at AA Binghamton so far in 2006. The big knock on him was his lack of a secondary pitch. What strides (if any) has he made in that area this year? If none, do you think he will eventually develop that second pitch he needs to become effective?

MM: He has made strides with the slider, and coupled with a deceptive delivery and a fastball that sits in the mid to high 90s, it looks like he could be an effective big league reliever. His ability to miss bats is impressive. He is a personal favorite of mine, so I am certainly hoping he can sustain his success.

MG: Is Ambiorix Concepion worth getting excited about? He had a disappointing 2005 after a breakout 2004, but is he just an old player in high A ball beating up on young players?

MM: I don’t know what to make of that guy. I had kind of given up on him after last season and I am shocked to see what he is doing in the FSL. He is old for the league, but what he is doing is more in line with what he did in Brooklyn in 2004. I wouldn’t start to get excited about him until he can do it in the high minors, but you would certainly rather see a guy succeed than not, even if he is old for the league.

MG: What do you see in Hector Pellot’s future? He supposedly has tremendous makeup and has a solid glove, but do you envision him as a future utility player or a starting second baseman down the line? Who do you like better as a middle infielder, Jose Coronado or Hector Pellot?

MM: I think it is too early to make projections about Pellot’s long-term future. He is one month into his pro career, and we just have not seen enough yet. Neither Pellot nor Coronado are doing anything with the bat thus far, but since Coronado is an excellent defender at shortstop (as opposed to Pellot at second) and is at a higher level, I would take Coronado at this point, though I am not strongly attached to either.

MG: Does Jon Niese have the potential to be front end pitcher? Who does he remind you most of in the Major Leagues?

MM: He has the potential, but I would emphasize the word potential. He has such a long way to go before that is reality, I wouldn’t start penciling him in for the 2009 rotation just yet. I do love the profile of the power lefty and I rated him very highly because the organization seemed high on him. I saw him pitch on opening day and he looked good, but from what I have seen and heard he needs work on commanding his pitches within the zone, as well as refining his fastball, change and curve. I am hesitant to compare him to a major leaguer because I am not a scout, and I don’t want to create unrealistic expectations.

MG: Who is the best Met prospect no one knows about?

MM: That is a tough one. I’ll go with Junior Contreras, a 19-year-old first baseman who played in the GCL last season. He is listed at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, but from what I hear he weighs a lot more than that. He has power and patience, but because of his size, he will only be a first baseman so he will need to hit a lot to stick there.

MG: It is early and Fernando Martinez is young, but do you see him as a #3 hitter down the line?

MM: It looks like he has the kind of potential. What he has done so far, when you consider his age and the expectations and pressure that come with the money he got, is truly impressive.

MG: Bobby Parnell had a fine year for Brooklyn in 2005 and he just made his debut for Hagerstown this past week. Given the fact that he was a college pitcher who had some success in 2005 in pro ball, is Hagerstown the place for him? Were his 2005 numbers a mirage?

MM: I think him starting in Hagerstown is sensible. He was not a guy with a big pedigree coming out of Charleston Southern. The guy had a 8.86 ERA in college last season before leading the New York-Penn League in ERA. I think the Mets want to bring him along slowly for now to make sure his success was not a fluke. When you consider he missed most of spring training, it makes even more sense.

MG: Between Deolis Guerra and Jon Niese, who has more upside?

MM: We have seen nothing of Guerra, so it is hard to compare. But when you consider that the Mets gave Guerra $700,000 and Niese $175,000, it seems like they think Guerra has more upside. Think about this, Guerra turned 17 on April 17, Niese turns 20 in October.

MG: For the St. Lucie Mets, Jose Sanchez has been pretty good so far this year and he will turn 22 tomorrow. Have you heard much on this kid?

MM: Sanchez started off 9-0 last season at Hagerstown with a 2.45 ERA but then really faltered after that. It was his first time pitching a full season and stamina was a problem. He features a fastball that sits in the 88-91 mph range, a nice change and usable curveball. His stuff is by no means overpowering, but he has decent command of all three and the Mets think that because of his loose arm, he could add a little velocity. He is more of a command guy, but because of his good performance, he is worth monitoring.


53 Responses to “Interview: BA’s Matt Meyers (Part I)”

  1. Comment posted by ap on May 11, 2006 at 1:04 am (#37938)

    yea good stuff…im still dissapointed with henry owens i was hoping this kid would get called up soon

    i also am dying to see alay soler called up for a start…hopefully we win the game gonzales starts but he does crappy….also anyone have any kind of video of henry owens or soler?

  2. Comment posted by Emad on May 11, 2006 at 1:31 am (#37945)

    The Sheffield comp is a generous one

    Massive understatement. Other than bat speed, the comp is wrought with idiocy. I would die a happy man if Milo were even close to the bat Sheff has been. The power/plate discipline was there from day one with Sheffield. He was a ridiculously good prospect. Could Milo eventually develop that kind of power? Yes. But we’re NOT SURE YET!

    Understand why my expectations are tempered. The Grand Diety of Baseball(Tm) has blessed us with Jose Reyes and David Wright. Anything else is homemade gravy.

  3. Comment posted by chris in ga on May 11, 2006 at 1:36 am (#37948)

    SO lets just call milo Sheff-lite. Will always be compared for whatever reason but will never be as deadly as sheff

  4. Comment posted by ap on May 11, 2006 at 1:42 am (#37951)

    if i had to compare milledge RIGHT NOW to a player in the ML i would say offensively he is most like….2004 rocco baldelli or alex rios…i think he is real similar to these guys power wise…more than baldelli and prob equal if not a little more than rios…more obp than both or should i say discipline…..defensively he is probably better than beltran, if not now definitely in the future….this kid is the real deal defensively..sick arm, sick speed, sick timing, smart defensive player

  5. Comment posted by Emad on May 11, 2006 at 1:49 am (#37953)

    Will always be compared for whatever reason

    “Gary Sheffield-level bat speed.”

    I’ve been looking for a prospect who, in the high minors at an early age, exhibited relatively little HR power, but later developed into a slugger. It’s fun searching for comps, let me tell you.

  6. Comment posted by chris in ga on May 11, 2006 at 2:04 am (#37955)

    I’ve been looking for a prospect who, in the high minors at an early age, exhibited relatively little HR power, but later developed into a slugger. It’s fun searching for comps, let me tell you.

    You know who I was surprised about when looking for comps. Marcus freaking Giles. How the heck did he hit 37 homeruns in Macon as a 20 year old?

  7. Comment posted by Evan on May 11, 2006 at 2:19 am (#37957)

    To me, Milledge is no where close to Sheffield in power, (unless he decides to take steroids like Sheff). I think Milledge can have an avg around .300, an obp of .350 and slug .500 while hitting 15-20 homers and steal 30-40 bases.

    Do you think a comparison to Gary Sheffield with a little less power and a bit more speed is far off?

    I think that sounds like Beltran. I feel Milledge is like Carl Crawford with more power but less speed. I think Milledge can steal as many bases as the elite stealers now can; it all depends on where he bats.

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  9. Comment posted by JK47 on May 11, 2006 at 3:58 am (#37963)

    I’ve heard comparisons of Milledge to Bobby Abreu and I think that’s pretty apt. Actually, Milledge is probably a better player now than Abreu was at 21. In his age 21 season, Abreu put up this line at AAA:

    .304/.403/.516

    Milledge’s AAA numbers so far:

    .307/.452/.491

    Abreu put those numbers up playing in Las Vegas, a great hitter’s park. He had 67 walks, 120 strikeouts and hit 10 home runs. Milledge is on a pace to have a similar season, but with better K/BB numbers. He’s also doing it in Norfolk, which is a far tougher place to hit than Las Vegas. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Milledge can do it over a full season, but so far his minor league numbers hold up very well when compared to Abreu at the same age.

    Milledge projects to be a far better player than Carl Crawford.

    Age 20, AA ball:
    Crawford: .274/.324/.352
    Milledge: .337/.392/.487

    Age 21, AAA ball:
    Crawford: .297/.335/.456
    Milledge: .307/.452/.491

    No contest. Crawford has never developed plate discipline, even to this day, which severely limits his ceiling as a hitter. Milledge has shown truly outstanding plate discipline this year in AAA, which puts him into a whole other category as a prospect. He is much more comparable, in my opinion, to Abreu than to Crawford.

  10. Comment posted by Emad on May 11, 2006 at 4:23 am (#37964)

    Okay. That does it. Here it goes. Definitive skepticism:

    1. Milo has a total of 9 HR’s since 2005… in 495 AB’s. I’m sorry, but playing at Shea will do him no favors.
    2. Milledge compares more favorably to Ruben Mateo than Bobby Abreu.
    3. The vast majority of prospects don’t suddenly become sluggers at age 21. Probability says he will disappoint.

    We all need to calm down on the kid. SOOOO many prospects have performed better than Milledge and flamed out. If Willis is on the table, i’m jumping… may Ricardo and Mike burn me at the stake.

  11. Comment posted by Tim in LA on May 11, 2006 at 5:08 am (#37965)

    All you have to do is watch this guy play and read some quotes from him to know that he’s no Ruben Mateo. This kid is a winner, with a head on his shoulders. The absolute worst case scenerio (besides injury) is that he’s an above average major league outfielder, who can win a gold glove, get on base, steal bases, and hit for a little bit of power. In other words, worst case scenerio is that he’s a fine replacement for Cliff Floyd. Best case is that he’s a perrenial allstar. We can debate about the odds of him being closer to the best case or the worst case, but either way there’s not a whole lot to be skeptical about. He’s got all the tools, but he’s also heady and confident. That doesn’t come around to often.

    Would I trade him for Willis? In a heartbeat. But that’s not happening, and other than Willis, there’s no one I’d trade him for.

  12. Comment posted by Evan on May 11, 2006 at 5:16 am (#37966)

    1. Milo has a total of 9 HR’s since 2005… in 495 AB’s. I’m sorry, but playing at Shea will do him no favors.
    2. Milledge compares more favorably to Ruben Mateo than Bobby Abreu.
    3. The vast majority of prospects don’t suddenly become sluggers at age 21. Probability says he will disappoint.

    I do agree with you about the homeruns, but I don’t think 15-20 homers is bad and I don’t think 30-40 stolen bases is unrealistic. The expectations on this kid are extremely high and he will dissapoint if everyone thinks this kid is hitting 30 plus homers a year. He’s a very good hitter who should provide some pop and speed hitting second in the batting order.

    We all need to calm down on the kid. SOOOO many prospects have performed better than Milledge and flamed out. If Willis is on the table, i’m jumping… may Ricardo and Mike burn me at the stake.

    Any reasonable person trades Milledge for Willis straight up, I’ll even include Bannister. Next year we can always sign Cliff again or Carlos Lee to play left, and theres the possibility to have a rotation of Pedro, Glavine, DTrain, Zito, Pelfrey.

  13. Comment posted by Emad on May 11, 2006 at 5:41 am (#37967)

    El Caballo would be nice.

    Considering the paucity of elite, young starting pitching, a trade for Willis is a no brainer. Outfielders are a dime a dozen. With Beltran manning center for another 5 years, I don’t see any desperate need to keep Milo. The point of developing stud prospects is to keep a few and trade the rest. The Braves have done a masterful job of this. Right now, Milledge looks very attractive to a Marlins team without a CF. (Abercrombie stinks)

  14. Comment posted by ericfromdaboston on May 11, 2006 at 9:45 am (#37975)

    “Could Milo eventually develop that kind of power?”

    2 words: cream and clear

  15. Comment posted by Eli on May 11, 2006 at 9:53 am (#37976)

    Any updates on Phil Humber? How seriously are the Mets taking him? Is he throwing with similar velocity before his surgery?

    I guess it would be helpful when people make projections of minor leaguers, that they be made both with or without steroid use.

  16. Comment posted by Brian S. on May 11, 2006 at 10:01 am (#37977)

    We have a very big advantage having Beltran in CF. He hits for way more power than the average CF. If we have a below average power hitting corner outfielder we are giving away the advantage that we paid 100 million for.

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  18. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on May 11, 2006 at 10:03 am (#37978)

    I salivate every time I hear DTrain mentioned as a Met! I think adding him to the rotation would give us the best 1-2-3 punch in the NL this year. So yeah, I would give the Fish Milledge and even throw in Bannister and another prospect. Dontrelle would fit soooo perfectly on the Mets! Great attitude, he’s young and comes cheap, and would lessen the need to fight over any impending free agents next winter.

  19. Comment posted by BHAND on May 11, 2006 at 10:11 am (#37979)

    For Willis, the Mets Would Have to Give Up 3 of their Top 10 Prospects including two Starting Pitchers. Willis is a 24 year old and will not be a free agent until 2009.

    If I was the Marlins GM I would not want any player older than 24 back for Willis and 3 of the Ten Prospects that team has to offer. I would also want all the prospects to be at least in AA so they could contribute to the Marlins by end of 2007.

    For the Mets this means they would have to give up for sure

    Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey, and probably Jon Niese (or another young pitching prospect).

    The Mets are weak with the other prospect because
    Too Hurt - Phil Humber and Matt Durkin
    Too Old - Henry Owens, Brian Bannister, John Maine and Alay Soler
    Too Unproven - Jon Niese and Deolis Guerra
    Not Good Enough - Miguel Pinango, Evan Maclane, or Jose Sanchez.

    So I pose: Would you trade Dontrelle Willis for Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese?

  20. Comment posted by Joe A. on May 11, 2006 at 10:26 am (#37980)

    Pelfry wouldn’t have to be included in a deal for Willis. You’re right that it would take more than just Milledge, but it wouldn’t be Pelfry.

    I am surprised how many people on this site are in favor of trading Milledge for Willis but against trading him for Zito. In my opinion Zito is the better pitcher and cost less in a trade. I know he’s a free agent at the end of the season, but adding him to the rotation this year would make the Mets the clear cut favorite to win the NL - and I think he would re-sign.

  21. Comment posted by Sam on May 11, 2006 at 11:13 am (#37985)

    There’s no way that Zito is better than D-train. Look at the stats for the last 3 years, especially now that Dontrelle has the endurance to go the full season. He’s 24, and was at least one of the top 3 pitchers in the NL last year.

    I’d MUCH rather have him than Zito. However, the Marlins aren’t trading him. Why would they- he’s young enough and will still be around when they are ready to compete.

  22. Comment posted by cp on May 11, 2006 at 11:22 am (#37988)

    1. Milo has a total of 9 HR’s since 2005… in 495 AB’s. I’m sorry, but playing at Shea will do him no favors.

    Emad does that include his AFL & International competition last season? BA doesn’t seem to have AFL stats live right now but I have a vague recollection of Lastings having a bit of a power surge in both the AFL & the World Games (or whatever they were called) that Davey Johnson skippered.

    My point is that if that is true, then it could be the case that he will develop more power in his 2nd 200 AAA ABs than in his first 200. Maybe, maybe not but I think it’s still an open question.

    But I think even without the power (at least right away) he could make this lineup stronger in 2007. LoDuca is fine in the #2 hole but a legitimate .300/.400 40 steal threat with occassional pop would be even better.

    Having the power hitting CFer affords us the luxury of less power from Lastings.

    This makes Nady the key to the 2007 offense. If moved up to 6th, can he protect Wright? You’ve got LoDuca hitting 7th and the 2ber hitting 8th.

    But Reyes/Milledge at the top of the lineup could prove a better run creating mix than more HRs but LoDuca in the #2 hole.

  23. Comment posted by cp on May 11, 2006 at 11:30 am (#37989)

    Found AFL stats.

    Lastings had 5 HRs in 94 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. Seems to support the possibility that his power trails his BA as he adjusts to better pitching. Doesn’t prove anything conclusively but leaves the door open.

    Personally I’m much more interested in having a legitimate .300+/.380 guy for the 1 or 2 hole than an extra 15 HRs from a .270/.340 guy. Now if Delgado, Beltran or Wright goes down for a year it’s another story . . .

  24. Comment posted by cp on May 11, 2006 at 11:40 am (#37991)

    I also found the World Cup Stats.

    There Lastings had 3 HRs in 43 ABs.

    Put the two together and he put up 8 HRs in 137 ABs which projects to 32 over 550 ABs. Not sure what the International pitching was like but the AFL is clearly better than the average AA hurler he saw alot of in 2005.

    That paints a far different picture from

    1. Milo has a total of 9 HR’s since 2005… in 495 AB’s.

  25. Comment posted by chris in ga on May 11, 2006 at 12:04 pm (#37995)

    Found AFL stats.

    Lastings had 5 HRs in 94 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. Seems to support the possibility that his power trails his BA as he adjusts to better pitching. Doesn’t prove anything conclusively but leaves the door open.

    I witnessed 5 of his AFL games & 2 of his homers. He will never hit many flyball homeruns. His homers will be lined. He looked bad in one atbat (against Loewen of Balt) but other than that he worked counts and fouled of pitches with two strikes that were pitcher pitches. The two homeruns were both crushed. high enough to get over the wall.

    With that being said, I think you guys make to much of his hr (or lack of) power. This guy could very well be a doubles machine, much like biggio was for yrs with Houston. I like Milledges chances to hit 50 doubles a season. He finds gaps, opposing teams have to play him straightaway and he has an ability to hit balls with authority down foul lines. This guy can eaisly be a 70 XBH guy a season with maybe 15 to 20 coming from the longball. He is going to hit his doubles and he is going to hit his triples.

  26. Comment posted by Benny Blanco from da Bronx on May 11, 2006 at 12:10 pm (#37997)

    When talkigna botu Milledge ahve to put some things into perspective.
    1) THink about where he’s batting in the lineup. He’s been batting leadoff. I don’t think the leadoff hitters job is to hit dingers. I’m sure if he abtted 3rd or 4th his approach would deffinitly change. His job is not to knock in runs but to get on base to get knocked in.

    2) Power is the LAST “tool” to develop. Lastings Milledge is currently in AAA at the age of 21. You have to wait a couple of years.

    He can go many ways. He’s still too young. He could be all sort of different guys like Sheffield, Abreu, Crawford, Carl Everett, and someone even said Rocco Baldelli.
    That’s a wide range of players… we just gotta wait.

  27. Comment posted by Brian S. on May 11, 2006 at 12:17 pm (#37999)

    I am with Joe A. about Zito.

    Zito and Glavine’s stats are very similar in their careers (EPS+, Inning, K’s), though Zito started even better than Glavine.

    Zito coming to the NL would be better than in the AL and would be back with Peterson. I think I would trade Milledge for a 28 year old Glavine.

    If Milledge = Abreu it makes it tougher, but if he is more of a slap hitter, then i think I make the trade.

    Having the power hitting CFer affords us the luxury of less power from Lastings.

    I think this is the wrong way to look at it. It should give us the chance to have a much better line up if we got power out of a corner.

  28. Comment posted by chris in ga on May 11, 2006 at 12:27 pm (#38002)

    WHen the royals finally fire their gm, it is rumored that Steve Phillips will take over. I’m sure thats going to put some butts in the seats.

  29. Comment posted by Jose Reyes, RBI Machine on May 11, 2006 at 12:44 pm (#38006)

    So I pose: Would you trade Dontrelle Willis for Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese?

    Nope. As much as I like Milledge, I like Pelfrey even more right now. I think that Pelfrey could come up and be an above-ML-average starter in 2007.

    2) Power is the LAST “tool” to develop.

    Your mom’s the last tool to develop. Ohhhh.

    I’ve heard comparisons of Milledge to Bobby Abreu and I think that’s pretty apt. Actually, Milledge is probably a better player now than Abreu was at 21.

    Statistically yeah, I see the comparison. But physically, it doesn’t make sense to me. Abreu has some good wheels but the man is big - strong, large, portly. I don’t think thats a comp that makes sense.

    Every time I see Lastings I’m thinking Crawford, Soriano, young Corey Patterson, Beltran. Someone athletic and toolsy, still young enough to fill out and hit for some power. Also, as CP was kind enough to point out, its not like Milledge isn’t hitting for power right now. He just wasn’t when he was 19-20 in FSL and Binghamton, where homeruns go to die.

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  31. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on May 11, 2006 at 1:25 pm (#38011)

    However, the Marlins aren’t trading him. Why would they- he’s young enough and will still be around when they are ready to compete.

    I disagree with this logic simply because Loria has no clue about baseball or how to run a team. IMHO, he should not be an owner or involved in baseball. I think DTrain will very much be on the block, even just to save 4.5M. Again, the Mets must do everything possible to keep DTrain away from their rivals this year or we can kiss the pennant goodbye.

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  33. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on May 11, 2006 at 1:26 pm (#38012)

    So I pose: Would you trade Dontrelle Willis for Lastings Milledge, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese?

    No, I wouldn’t trade Pelfrey in that deal. But I don’t think it would take Pelfrey and Milledge to get DTrain anyway.

  34. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on May 11, 2006 at 1:52 pm (#38015)

    I would rather trade for Johan Santana then either DTrain or Zito.
    I would rather have my 2nd baseman hitting #2 in this lineup, and have OF’s in the middle of the order because it’s harder to get a power hitting 2nd baseman.
    That would mean trading for a 2B that can hit in the 2 hole.

    Since the Twins have Santana, AND Luis Castillo, I’d like to see a blockbuster for these 2 players. Hell, trade Milledge, Humber, Matsui+$5M (or AHern/Kepp), and maybe a throw-in from A ball.

  35. Comment posted by Stel Og Stem on May 11, 2006 at 2:03 pm (#38017)

    I can’t imagine the Twins even considering trading Santana and if they would, it would DEFINITELY take both milledge and Pelfrey. Santana is definitely the best pitcher in the AL and probably the league (I only say probably because I love Pedro).

  36. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on May 11, 2006 at 2:10 pm (#38019)

    The Sheffield comparison was made mainly because of his bat speed and ability to hit for average.

    Sheffield owns a line of .298/.399/.526, but I was talking more about Sheffield at his peak hitting. Like when he hit .325/.438/.643 for LA. He had a career high in homers that year that SLG is a bit skewed for my example, but a .325/.425/.550 line is basically what we expect of Sheff.

    As for Milledge, his bat speed will enable him to hit for a high average at the very least and I think most people agree on that. Power aside, the way he is taking walks now, he could net 60 in a season, which is less than sheff, but not far off. Sheff had some crazy walk years, but was in the 50’s to start his career. As for the power, that is where a lot of people differ. Will he be an 18 a year guy, 25 a year guy, or 30 a year guy.

    As for comps, some guy posted that here a bit ago. He had a bunch of players who were in the same boat in terms of power and the development at 21.

    Mike Cameron has decent pop. He hit 21, 19, 25, 26, and 18 homers in one of the worst right-handed hitter’s parks and then 30 at Shea the next year.

    He had six homers in 468 at-bats in 1994 at a lower level than Lastings. Personally, I think Milledge can develop Beltran-type homerun output (I did not say power, Beltran has big time power, but output) when he was healthy with the Royals. In 1999 he hit 22, 2000 he was injured, 2001 he hit 24, 2002, he hit 29, 203 he hit 26, and in 2004 he hit 15 before getting traded to Astros (I think Minute Maid Park suppressing homers from the left-side of the plate and greatly boosts them for righties, but my Bill James handbook it at home sleeping). Hitting 25-30 a year is not out of the question for me. Milledge’s bat speed and the fact he has not filled out yet tells me homers are coming.

    The bottom line is, for the type of hitter he is with the bat speed he has, Sheffield with less power and more speed is an appropriate comp. Of course he is not going to be as fearsome if he has less pop (and because Sheffield is just plain mean sometimes and looks it), how many guys that hit homers in the 20’s are ‘fearsome’. They may be respected and a tough out, but you don’t get scared when Jeter comes to plate like you get scared with Sheff. I think Lastings can hit for a .320/.330 average in his prime and knock 25 out and steal 30+ bases. Maybe I’m being generous, but with his bat speed and skill that he has already shown, I think he is going to be really, really good. He’s going to be the type of guy you can plug into the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd slot. Not too much pop for one, but enough to bat third and produce runs.

    Of course, none of this has happened yet, so it is all opinion. We’ll see who is right or wrong in four years. Hopefully this site is still around and you can yell expletives at me later if I’m wrong.

  37. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on May 11, 2006 at 2:11 pm (#38020)

    Johan goes no where and if he does, you would have needed to trade Jesus in his prime.

  38. Comment posted by Danny on May 11, 2006 at 2:16 pm (#38021)

    Johan goes no where and if he does, you would have needed to trade Jesus in his prime.

    Come on Michael, Jesus’ prime is at least 8-10 years away. He is only 17 years old for goodness sakes. Santana will be too old by then. :)

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  40. Comment posted by JK47 on May 11, 2006 at 2:16 pm (#38022)

    Milledge doesn’t need to hit 30+ HR a year to be an excellent player– you’re talking about a guy who has hit .300 at every level, with lots of extra-base hits and who is now racking up a .450 OBP at AAA at age 21. Throw in his defensive tools and well, there’s not a whole lot wrong with Milledge as a player. Many, many players develop power at age 21 or later. Milledge has put up excellent slugging percentages at every stop, and seems to me to be a prime candidate to hit more home runs as he gets into his mid-20’s.

    I fear we’re getting into Yankee mentality here, which is the thinking that we need an All-Star at every position and that somehow a player is bad if he doesn’t hit more than 30 home runs. If Milledge can sustain his current level of play for a full season at AAA, and that’s a big if I will admit, the odds of him being a complete bust at the major league level are very low. The comparisons to Baldelli and Crawford are really way off. You’re talking about two guys with terrible plate discipline, guys who strike out three times for every walk. If Baldelli ends up being a better player than Milledge, I will be shocked.

  41. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on May 11, 2006 at 3:08 pm (#38028)

    Danny, Jesus was that good at 17. Dude had a refined approach to hitting not seen in kids at that age….

  42. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on May 11, 2006 at 3:12 pm (#38031)

    JK47, I agree. That’s why I think Reyes fits perfectly too. He’ll never be worth as much as Wright, but that does not mean that won’t work. The Mets should be able to afford both of them.

    I think Milledge is going to be very solid. I don’t think he’ll approach the levels Wright will, but a very good ball player with some All-Star caliber years.

    If Baldelli ends up being a better player than Milledge, I will be shocked.

    I agree. Throw in the injury and Milledge might be better in 2007!

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  44. Comment posted by Ellis Dee on May 11, 2006 at 3:19 pm (#38032)

    No Johan Santana, then? You guys a blowin’ my high! Don’t know what his contract is, but I thought maybe the Twins wouldn’t be able to shell out the $ when it’s up (should be a lot).

    Anyway, I like the name. Maybe we can trade for Carlos Santana who could write us a good Mets song!

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  46. Comment posted by jowf on May 11, 2006 at 3:25 pm (#38033)

    SOOOO many prospects have performed better than Milledge and flamed out.

    Ok, name 1. (or better yet, find 20- out of those 20, how many became stars, how many became decent MLB players and how amny flamed out?)

    OK- how many Met prospects have outplayed Milledge?

    I can think of just 2 I would say outplayed Millegde in the last 20 years. Greg Jefferies and David Wright. Actually, it’s a stretch to say Wright outplayed Milledge- age by age their overall performance was similar in quality though different (Wright showed more power and patience- Milledge more average and speed).
    Jefferies was a disappointment but not a total flameout- he had a MLB career and made buckets of money.

    Milledge:
    Age 20, AA ball:
    Milledge: .337/.392/.487

    Age 21, AAA ball:
    Milledge: .307/.452/.491

    come on 20 guys better than that…

  47. Comment posted by Jose Reyes, RBI Machine on May 11, 2006 at 3:28 pm (#38034)

    I remember when the Twins were screwing around with Santana like they are screwing with Liriano now. I was thinking, this guy is RIDICULOUSLY good, I can’t believe he’s not starting. He came to Shea for an interleague game and I completely rearranged my schedule to see it. If memory serves, he was very good.

  48. Comment posted by Gabe on May 11, 2006 at 3:33 pm (#38035)

    The Twins recently signed Santana to a four-year extension. He’s not even eligible for free agency until 2010. There’s no chance of the Twins moving him.

    As for Milledge, predicting his power at this stage is impossible. His bat speed makes it more likely that he’ll be a line drive homer hitter than one who lofts ‘em out, but that’s a good thing. He was considered a 5-tool talent coming out, and having just turned 21, I see no reason he can’t evolve into a 20-30 homer guy. Cameron isn’t a good comparison–nor are Baldelli or Crawford–because Milledge has far superior plate discipline. I think Beltran is a reasonable high-end estimate. Low-end, Milledge should be a fine #2 hitter, or even a leadoff guy with Reyes second. Either way, I’m psyched to see him in Shea, and he should also REALLY tighten up our outfield defense.

  49. Comment posted by Jose Reyes, RBI Machine on May 11, 2006 at 3:34 pm (#38036)

    Thank you retrosheet.

    June 18, 2002
    Twins 6 - Mets 1

    Santana, 6ip 3h 1er 1bb 7k

    In the game, we pitched Jeff D’AMico, lefty Bobby Jones, Mark Corey, and Satoru Komiyama.

  50. Comment posted by brooklynMetFan on May 11, 2006 at 3:39 pm (#38038)

    Henry Owens has come up lame with a small ligament tear in his right arm

    I guess the doctors don’t think it’s too bad and will let him soft toss but this is never something you want to hear with a pitcher - esp a power arm

  51. Comment posted by chris in ga on May 11, 2006 at 3:51 pm (#38040)

    Henry Owens has come up lame with a small ligament tear in his right arm

    I guess the doctors don’t think it’s too bad and will let him soft toss but this is never something you want to hear with a pitcher - esp a power arm

    Its what medical people usually call a sprain. I posted the following yest. in another thread

    For mild tears, which are just sprains, treatment entails not pitching for 10 days to 2 weeks, taking anti-inflammatory medications, icing the area, and doing a stretching and strengthening exercise. Then, the pitcher could start a throwing program, in which he begins throwing lightly from short distances and gradually progresses to throwing from a mound to the catcher

    It is a common, easily treated ailment. I also explained that an athletic trainer (I once dated) told me that this is a good thing b/c Owens didn’t do the “Manly thing” and try to pitch through the pain like someone we know from venezuela (I still can’t figure out his name.

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  53. Comment posted by JK47 on May 11, 2006 at 3:58 pm (#38041)

    Ok, name 1. (or better yet, find 20- out of those 20, how many became stars, how many became decent MLB players and how amny flamed out?)
    OK- how many Met prospects have outplayed Milledge?

    Milledge has great OVERALL hitting skills– hitting for power, hitting for average, drawing walks, not striking out a ton. Milledge is good at every component of hitting. Hitters who mash AAA at age 21 with excellent K/BB statistics are very safe bets to be good major league hitters.

  54. Comment posted by Michael Oliver on May 11, 2006 at 4:32 pm (#38044)

    ameron isn’t a good comparison–nor are Baldelli or Crawford–because Milledge has far superior plate discipline.

    Cammy has good discipline…He’s a 70 walks a year guy. That’s about Milledge’s ceiling for walks. Juding by his past and his crazy improvement this year, I thnk the truth lies somewhere in between. Only 12 guys topped 90 in 2005 and Wright was head and shoulders better than Milledge throughout his career so figuring on about 60 walks for Lastings is about right.

    Baldelli cannot walk to save his life. I agree there.

  55. Comment posted by Super T on May 11, 2006 at 7:31 pm (#38058)

    Floyd is in the #2 spot in the lineup today. Good decision by WR, something needs to be done to try and light a fire under Floyd.

  56. Comment posted by PDNH on May 11, 2006 at 8:11 pm (#38063)

    I think the Mets feel the are in the self-esteem building industry. Come on, It’s Gavin F-ing Floyd!

  57. Comment posted by SyracuseMetsFan on May 11, 2006 at 8:22 pm (#38064)

    Not a very encouraging farm report. Other than Milledge and Pelfrey - no blue chippers until you get to A ball - unless you consider Humber, who will be coming off major arm trouble. Not particularly encouraging.

    Great catch by Rowan tonight, it’ll probably win the game for the Cheesesteaks as Trachsel has already responded to the long delay by giving up a first inning gopher ball. The delay while Rowan bled all over the field probably unbalanced Trachsel’s universe and now he’s shot for the night. Poor guy.

  58. Comment posted by cp on May 11, 2006 at 10:18 pm (#38072)

    There’s no way that Zito is better than D-train. Look at the stats for the last 3 years,

    OK lets.

    2003
    Zito 3.30 ERA, .219 BAA
    Willis 3.31, .245 BAA
    2004
    Zito 4.48, .263 BAA
    Willis 4.02, .273 BAA
    2005
    Zito 3.86, .221 BAA
    Willis 2.63, .243 BAA
    2006
    Zito 4.07, .205 BAA
    Willis 6.22, .360 BAA

    Zito pitches in the league with the DH but has had a substantially lower BAA than Dontrelle each of the last 3 seasons.

    On the ERA front they were dead even in 2003, Dontrelle by .46 in 2004, Dontrelle by 1.23 in 2005. Adjust for league and they each win one year with the middle one a push. Both home parks favor pitchers.

    Dontrelle is getting lit up this season 6.22 ERA & .360 BAA. He would be getting crushed by fans/media had we traded for him and he got off to that kind of start here.

    Dontrelle may well indeed prove to be the better pitcher over the next 5 seasons but it is hardly a sure thing. Dontrelle had a great season in 2005 but it’s unclear if he that will be the norm or exception for him.

    I’d grab him if we could but it’s not like the guy has had 4 straight top 10 seasons.

  59. Comment posted by metswin2006 on May 11, 2006 at 11:56 pm (#38073)

    Great post CP. There is a very big difference between AL and NL. Zito is a gamer and would be a great addition to the mets. The switch of leagues alone would drop his era, and he has had success in the post season, and would be reunited with peterson. I know willis is nasty too, and he is younger, but I’m just saying Zito is no Zambrano and if we could get him go for it. Dont part wit Pelfrey or Soler though. Pitching wins world series’. Including Milledge in a deal? maybe, definately perfer not too. But we are one good pitcher away as we all know. I dont think our #3 starter scares any team. Just saying Zito would solidify our rotation, and the bullpen is stellar. Milledge is no guarantee and we may be able to get Carlos Lee next year anyhow. So its very debatable, but we have the talent to win now.

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  61. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on May 12, 2006 at 12:36 am (#38075)

    Zito is a gamer and would be a great addition to the mets. The switch of leagues alone would drop his era, and he has had success in the post season, and would be reunited with peterson

    Thank you! I’ve been saying this for 6 months and have been mostly trashed for it!

    Off topic….I know this is sour grapes, but does anyone else feel ripped off tonight? I mean, the game gets called early and the Mets have been staging late comebacks. A 2 run deficit is really nothing for this team to overcome.

  62. Comment posted by nydia on July 25, 2006 at 4:24 pm (#62983)

    Very interesting & professional site. You done great work. nokia6630

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