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May 10, 2006
Rough Start
Coming into last night, Cliff Floyd, who went 1-3 with a walk in Tuesday’s night loss, was hitting .186/.286/.304 in 119 PA. Cliff’s start has been very disappointing, as he was coming off his most productive year as a Met as he not only put up a solid .863 OPS, but amassed 626 PAs, 169 more than he had in 2004 and 201 more than he had in 2003. As a Met, the problem was never about Cliff hitting (he had a .800+ OPS all three years as a Met), but about him staying healthy. And after playing in 150 games last season, Met fans were very bullish on Cliff once again hitting well while staying healthy. So far, Cliff has kept up the healthy part, but, what has happened to the hitting? Well, let’s take a look at his numbers before last night’s game. First, let’s start with his walk rate. BB/PA I’ve decided to use his numbers as a Met only and as you can see, his walk rate has gone down a little so far this year. But, counting Cliff’s walk last night, he has walked 4 times so far in May as opposed to only 7 times in April. I expect Cliff to keep walking like he has recently and therefore getting his walk rate over the .1 BB/PA mark. So, we know his early struggles don’t have to do with not getting walks. Next, let’s look at his BB/K ratio. K/PA Looking at these numbers, Cliff has actually dropped his strikeout rate a pretty good amount from previous years. So, if the issue isn’t a problem getting walks or striking out too much, what can it be? Well, there are two things. The first? No power. IsoP One of Cliff’s big issues this year is that he has hit for absolutely no power. He only has 6 extra base hits (3 doubles and 3 homeruns) and I don’t have a clue why his power has gone down so much so far this year. His other issue, obviously, is his average which stood at .186 before last night’s game. So, how can we explain that? Well, we can take a look at his LD% and BABIP. Why? Well, here is an explanation from our own Matt Gelb, at his old blog.
Unfortunately, I could not find an original article on the LD% and BABIP connection, but the above paragraph explains the concept. So, how is Cliff Floyd doing so far this season (once again, not including last night)? LD%: .151 As you can see, Cliff Floyd has been extremely “unlucky”. If his LD% plus .110 equaled his BABIP, his BABIP would be .261. If his BABIP was .261, Cliff Floyd would have 7 more hits, making his average a somewhat respectable .255. Most Met fans seem to think that Cliff has, at times, hit the ball hard, but just not in places where it has fallen in, so it is very possible that based on that, we will see a nice upswing in BABIP very soon. The other question off this is whether or not an upswing in BABIP would also help him pick up some more extra-base hits and add a little bit to his low power numbers. Of course, those balls wouldn’t be homeruns and his AB/HR rate, which is 34.7, is way below his career average of 22.2. Even accounting for an upswing in BABIP, we would have Cliff hitting .255/.355/.364 before last night. The .255/.355 is reasonably close enough to his normal numbers, so really, if we expect Cliff to eventually have some of those balls fall in, there is one issue left… will he start hitting for power? As I said earlier in the article, I’m not really sure why Cliff’s power is down this year, so for now, I’ll believe that Cliff is just off to a very rough start and that his power will come around eventually. And if it does, adding Floyd’s bat to the Mets already strong lineup when he is not hitting will make the Mets offense even more enjoyable to watch. 26 Responses to “Rough Start”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Maybe all the injuries he’s suffered over the years are resulting in an early decline. I’m certain he’s battling with nagging shoulder/rib injuries as we speak. Of course, he would never use such things as an excuse.
But what I really think is this: Cliff’s been such a streaky hitter throughout his career. He just happened to have a typically “bad” month in April instead of May or June.
If he’s still not producing in mid-June, it might just be the former rather than the latter.
He’s shown very little want to go to left field. He wasn’t always a pull hitter. Back in his Marlins day, he use to drive the ball alot more to all fields.
Jae Seo gave up 3 homers tonight and now has a 6.00era
That was an interesting analysis and suggests that his slump is not due to him swinging wildly. But I suppose that there can be some change in his swing that actually increases bat contact, but not good contact. Stats and luck factor aside, Cliff Floyd has been a streaky hitter, going one month below .200 and the next .350. I think that .280, 25-30 hr, 90-100 RBI’s is still within reach if he gets hot soon. If Beltran, Delgado, Wright and Floyd all get hot at the same time, the Mets will score a lot of runs. So far, it has not happened.
Nady’s average is sliding towards mediocrity but he is still hitting timely home runs.
Jeremy,
Maybe I’m confused here (that’s certainly been known to happen) - but can you clear something up for me?
OK, I get that he’s hitting line drives 15 percent of the time, and agree that makes him “unlucky” - but how could Cliff’s BABIP be LOWER than his actual batting average?
Doesn’t BABIP have to be significantly higher, since it essentially takes strikeouts out of the mix and treat them like they didn’t happen? Or did you already adjust for that somehow?
Another oddity for Floyd: they take Ks, BBs and HRs out of the mix. Since Floyd has 3 HRs and 11 Ks, his batting average is better on balls that aren’t in play (3/14 = .204 average on balls NOT in play). This is why when you count balls in and out of play, his average is slightly better than when you just consider BABIP.
Most batters either strike out a lot or don’t hit many homers which is when their BABIP is higher than their overall average.
I wonder if that stuff going on with his kidneys is affecting him physically/psychologically in ways we don’t know about. As said in a post above, Cliff isn’t one to make excuses - but you never know?
What’s wrong with his kidneys?
Personally I think Floyd is struggling so much because he is pressing at the plate. He is making contact yes, but he is swinging defensively and not trying to do anything with the pitches. You would almost rather see a few strikeouts at this point because maybe it will lead to him becoming more aggressive. Until he stops swinging to “not strike out,” this slump will continue.
“What’s wrong with his kidneys?”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/10/sports/baseball/10floyd.html?ex=1299646800&en=841cb9069c295381&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
sorry i’m a little slow, but what is the significance of .110 in all of this? i’m assuming its not just some arbitrary number…
I think Cliff’s troubles are the product of his approach at the plate. As mentioned above, he is not hitting to left field or even center field at all. He has become a dead pull hitter and what you’re seeing from him is a lot of topped ground balls to the right side of the infield, essentially the result of being out in front of outside pitches. I would bet that at least 1/4 of his outs are either unassisted 3’s or 3-1’s. David Wright actually went through this for a short period when he was slumping (pulling outside pitches to the left side). I’m not sure how Cliff’s fallen into this habit of yanking everything to right; possibly the result of pitchers pitching him inside consistently and his feeling like he has to speed up his swing. I am convinced he will come out of this and start hammering; but only once he makes an adjustment. I’m not a hitting coach, so I’m not sure what the best approach is to fix the problem. It may be for him to move a little off the plate so he doesn’t feel so vulnerable inside and force himself to take outside pitches to left.
The thing that has amazed me is that as poor as Cliff has played, nobody has gotten on him. I mean, Beltran was booed, then gets bashed for sitting out with the hammy. Matsui gets booed. Here comes Cliff, hitting 180, and nary a peep. I know he has come up big a couple of times, but still.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Cliff is a good ballplayer, and he is obviously a key part of the lineup, but why the pass? Valentin plays once a week and gets killed. Cliff plays every day, has hurt the team numerous times, and nothing. Even Wright got booed in the Atlanta game.
Perhaps I am wrong, and he has been booed, if so, fine. But if he has not, why not?
I think people just like Cliff. He’s one of our own. He came to New York because he wanted to play in New York, his first two years he put up solid numbers while playing through numerous injuries, he played like an 1960’s MVP candidate for about 80% of last season, he’s always open and honest, he’s a team leader, he gives it his all on every play — he’s just a fun player to have on your team. Yeah, he’s struggling, but he’s done enough for the team, and not hurt them that badly, where I think fans are willing to give him a pass for the time being. That’s just my opinion.
Come on Ed…the pass if for this:
Cliff has been the worst mets ever for the few years and carried the teams.
That’s why he gets a pass.
He’s been here longer than Wright and suffered as a met a lot longer than Wright.
*”Been on the worst mets team ever”
He was THE offense in 2004. He put the team on his back and played injured pretty much the whole season. He had a great year last year. Cliff gets a pass.
Do you think in Japan it is viewed as improper to get a hit with runners in scoring position, simliar to back handing ground balls?
He is tough and gives effort and he is honest. He failed to run on a ground ball and he owned up to it immediately with the media and did not blame injuries. He took DW under his wing when Super Joe left. Cliff is failing and tring, he is not failing and not tring.
Cliff did not come to NY with a huge contract or to huge fanfare, so he is below the radar. He’s also a great guy, as everybody’s mentioned, which helps, but usually that doesn’t get you a pass with NY fans (Beltran seems nice enough; as was Piazza, who got booed on occasion). Both Kaz and Beltran were ultrahyped and signed huge contracts, so there is little patience when they struggle. Wright is the golden boy, so people expect greatness from him. Same with Reyes…he’s been hyped as a star, so the fans will get frustrated when he gets into those interminable fly ball/strike out/pop up binges. Cliff was a great hitter before he came to the Mets, but he signed a modest contract and had a checkered health record, so he was never billed as the team’s savior. He has been a great hitter and has come through many many times for the Mets, but he was never front and center on this team. Consequently, the fans won’t beat him up so long as he plays hard and doesn’t do anything stupid to incur their wrath (e.g., whine to the press, make negative statements about NY or the fans, etc.).
I just want to be clear, I like Cliff, I know what he has done for this team in the past.
I understand all the reasons noted above, but I take exception to a couple. For one, last year was the only year he was healthy and produced. As for carrying the team, Wright helped him there, 302 avg, 102 rbi’s, so it is not like Cliff was all alone.
Piazza also carried this team for a number of years, and he did not have the honeymoon Cliff is getting. It is just inconsistent.
Again, I am not advocating beating up on the guy, I hated the booing of Beltran this year, I thought it awful when Wright was booed. Just wanted people’s thoughts on this. I appreciate the feedback.
I assume you are talking about Matsui. What about Saturday against the Braves?
How many men has Cliff LOB this year? Heck, Friday night he left the bases loaded twice.
Correction: The fans will be very patient with him so long as he plays hard…” Eventually, Cliff will start to get booed if he doesn’t start hitting and the Mets sputter. I’d give him until the end of this month. If he’s showing no signs of life by the end of May and the Mets are in a dogfight with Philly or (even worse) the Braves are making a run, the boo birds will start targeting him.
One Question??? Why isn’t Floyd batting 8th right now? He does not deserve to be hitting behind Wright or in front of Nady, and please don’t give me that lefty righty left BullCrap. That only works if both of the LeftHanders are actually hitting the ball which Floyd isnt. If you look at it like this, your taking away runs, RBI’s, hits with a man that is batting over 100 points less then Nady is. When does Willie sit Cliff on the Pine for about 3 straight games and put Chavez out there. Chevez can hit .180 also, but plays much better defense. I say sit Floyd 3 games in a ROW let him think about it and then play him again. If we had a pitcher pitching as bad as Floyd is hitting in Mid-May would that pitcher still be pitching as a starter for us? Wouldn’t they push his starts back as they did with Zambrano. Well right now Floyd is hitting as bad as Zambrano pitched. Sit him, give Chevez 3 solid starts.
This is for ELI, how in the hell can you say Nady’s batting average is sliding towards medocity when he’s hitting what .294?? I guess Delago must be sliding towards the Mendoza line since Nady has a higher batting average. The guy is hitting .294 and now he’s sliding towards the average hitter. What do you call David Wrights .307 average then just above Average? Man do your homework before you write stupid crap like he just did.
lets go mets!!
RG, In Eli’s defense, he didn’t say he had a mediocre batting average. He said he was sliding towards mediocrity. That means that his average has been going down from the astronomical levels it once was at towards the league average (around .265) I don’t necessarilly agree because I think Nady will hit like .285 but he definitely didn’t deserve any bashing.
I think it’s premature to flip-flop Cliff and Nady. Pitchers still fear Cliff, so he continues to provide Wright protection. Also, with a slumping player, you want to have somebody behind him to get him some pitches to hit. That will help Cliff to break out, and the team needs his stick. I firmly believe he will start pounding the ball soon; the ability is still there.