May 3, 2006
Minor League Recap
AAA Norfolk Tides
- The Norfolk Tides dropped their third in the row as they lost to the Rochester Red Wings 2-1. Tim Lavigne got the start for the Tides and went four innings while giving up three hits, one earned run on a homerun, and struck out two. He picked up the no decision and bullpen was impressive over the next five innings. William Vazquez went 2.1 innings while giving up no runs, Anderson Garcia went 1.2 innings of no run ball and has yet to allow anyone to cross home plate since his promotion, and Heath Bell was the hard luck loser as he took the loss to drop to 1- 2 in one inning of work while not allowing an earned run and striking out two. Lastings Milledge went 1 for 4 with his eighth double on the year and one RBI and Ray Navarrete went 0 for 2 with a walk and scored one run while walking once.
AA Binghamton Mets
- The Binghamton Mets dropped to 12-13 with their 5-2 loss to the Akron Aeros. Carlos Gomez went 1 for 5, Andy Wilson went 2 for 4, Bobby Malek went 2 for 4 with a double, and Corey Ragsdale went 1 for 4 with his second homer of the year. Miguel Pinango dropped to 0-2 with a 4.72 ERA as he was responsible for allowing all runs to cross the plate. Miguel went 4.2 innings and gave up eight hits, five runs, four earned runs, two walks, and struck out two.
High-A St. Lucie Mets
- St. Lucie beat the Palm Beach Cardinals 4-3 to improve to 16-9. Ambiorix Concepcion went 1 for 4 with a double and three RBIs, Jose Coronado went 1 for 3 with a run scored and a walk, and Joshua Peterson went 2 for 3 with a run scored, two doubles, and one RBI. Michael Devaney got the start for the Mets and was sparkling as he improved to 1-2 with a 3.16 ERA. Devaney threw eight innings and gave up only four hits, one earned run, no walks, and struck out eight. Carlos Muniz picked up his seventh save of the year and gave up two earned runs on two hits and a walk in one inning of work.
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Also, Alay Soler was promoted to AA. Obviously, he had nothing left to prove at the A level, which he shouldn’t, given his age and extensive experience in Cuba. If this guy proves to be a valuable spot-starter/bullpen arm for the Big Club by August or September, it will be a nice boost for the stretch run.
I certainly agree with MrJ; given his age and experience, he should not be left in AA if he does well after 3 or 4 starts.
Has Minaya been quoted as saying how long Owens will be left in AA? It seems absurd to leave him there. The only reason I can see for not having Owens playing for the Mets in another month or so (if he were to show similar dominance at AAA) is to allow him to experiment and develop one more good pitch.
I think it is more likely than not, that the Mets starting rotation will be revealed as not very good in another month or so. And I think that the Mets have the arms in their minor leagues to make the whole pitching staff much better without any trades. I would love to see Owens and or Bell in the bullpen by mid July and would love to see Heilman and possibly Pelfrey in the rotation and possibly even Solar as long relief. How good Bannister will be when he comes back is really a mystery. Beginning his last pitching in spring training, he has lost his control. Mets could however, use him instead of Valentin as a pintch hitter
Unfortunately, this may well happen. And while Pedro and Glavine have been great so far, Glavine is still 40 years old, and Pedro’s toe could still cost him starts. Aside from fast-tracking Pelfrey, though, I don’t see Minaya filling needs (long-term) from the minor league system. Minor leaguers are just too iffy to trust in the heat of a pennant race. Look for a major trade for a starter by the deadline.
MrJ said:
You agree, MrJ, that Pelfrey may get fast-tracked. That’s one SP hole filled. Heilman could be moved to be a starter, filling another SP hole. His spot in the bullpen could be given to Henry Owens (who is 27) or Alay Soler (26). There’s also Heath Bell to consider. Soler is not like a regular minor leaguer, with his previous experience in Cuba.
If the Mets do that, then they have a rotation of Pedro, Glavine, Trax, Pelfrey and Bannister. Soler would be available as a spot starter if somebody got hurt. They would still have Wagner and Sanchez at the top of the bullpen, backed up by a bunch of competent relievers. I think that most teams would swap their entire bullpen for the Mets bullpen minus Heilman and be happy as clams.
There is not much difference between AA and AAA any more so I don’t see an issue leaving Owens
there longer. As long as he is getting his work in, he should be fine. If and when the big club at some point in needs a reliever in the next month or two, I’m sure Owens would be considered for a move
to AAA.
I like Bell and Owens but stop with all of this move Heilman to rotation and bring one of them up to replace him in the pen. The org. is going to leave him in the pen for the year unless they are forced and I mean forced to move him, which will be after Maine, Soler, Pelfrey fail, and nothing good is on the market. On Bell and Owens if this team plans on continuing to contend you don’t replace your 7th/8th inning guy with someone from the minors who could blow up. Besides Heilman, Sanchez, and Wagmer who do you really trust in the pen? I know I do not trust anyone else in a 1 run game and I wouldn’t fully trust Owens or Bell if they come up they should be the 5th or 6th guy in the pen.
Farm Report : Alay Moves Up
As we reported yesterday, Alay Soler was dominant in Single A and now officially has moved up to Double A …
Picture this: Sept. 28, 2006, Turner Field, Atlanta. The Mets and Braves are tied for first place, so the winner of this game takes a one game lead with three to play. In the top of the sixth inning the Mets break on top 3-2. In the bottom of the inning, the Braves load the bases with two out against Mike Pelfrey, who is visibly tiring at the end of his first pro season.
After all that has been accomplished to get to this point, Minaya and Randolph are not (thank goodness!) trusting this situation to Soler, Owens or Bell. That’s why Heilman will remain in the bullpen through this season.
MrJ - the reason that the Mets will be tied for first place that late in the season will be on the strength of the games that starting pitcher Heilman won earlier in the season. I am thrilled having a bullpen where Heilman can come in for the 7th inning. I just think that Heilman will be able to make a more valuable contribution as a starting pitcher.
Or, to put it another way, every start that Heilman gets is one less start for Zambrano.
The debate on where Heilman provides the most value has been raging since spring training, and will obviously continue given the holes in the starting rotation.
I remain in the “keep him in the pen” camp, although I understand and am tempted by the arguments to put him in the rotation.
‘Picture this: Sept. 28, 2006, Turner Field, Atlanta. The Mets and Braves are tied for first place, so the winner of this game takes a one game lead with three to play. In the top of the sixth inning the Mets break on top 3-2. In the bottom of the inning, the Braves load the bases with two out against Mike Pelfrey, who is visibly tiring at the end of his first pro season’
the guy coming in is Julio…
Barring injuries, the first 2 spots in the rotation are cemented. For the bottom 3 spots we have: Bannister, Maine, Zambrano, and Trax competing. Assuming Pelfrey makes the rotation in July/Aug, that leaves the same 4 starters plus Soler most likely competing for 2 spots. That’s 5 starter to fill 2 spots by mid-late season. We need to risk taking Heilman out of the pen, why?
OR - your assessment is spot-on. why mess with one of the best bullpens in MLB when you have more than enough arms to throw a potential hole in the rotation. and knock wood and cross your fingers but i feel good about pedro. we’re giving him the same rest as last year and he says the shoe is working. the guy has shown he’ll play with pain and said all through spring that the foot would not have kept him out of a real game. as long as glavine keeps his seat belt on i don’t see any reason to worry. trax does worry me after last year but he looks solid. bannister is super young and just needs to modify his stretching routine - maybe old man julio can help. victor can get hit by a bus for all i care (just kidding. i actually think he’s going to do fine this year)
Despite months and months of discussing where Heilman should be, I still haven’t heard a good argument to keep him in the bullpen. Its either a) “Don’t mess with a good thing” or b) “Look, he’s so good there”… neither of which carry any real weight.
RBI Machine, the good argument is that Heilman really only throws two pitches, the fastball and changeup. Throwing only two pitches, you have to really be on to get a guy out for the third time in a night. This leaves him better suited to bullpen work, one or two innings, where he can dominate…and the stats support this, he’s been wicked in the pen, and average as a starter. If he’d learn to throw at least a ’show me’ breaking ball, I might switch camps, but given his repetoire, he’s just best suited to be a reliever.
JRRM,
Both og those are good reason, add in what Tim said nevermind that he can struggle a second time through the order. Right now Heilman comes in and all he has to do is worry about getting the batter this time and can throw all he has at him, as a starter you can not do that or you will get smoket the second. Another reason to keep him in the pen is that is the only place he has had sustained success at ML level. I am just curious what is your solution if he gets moved to the rotation flops, our pen struggles and his confidence is all f***ed up.
Heilman, 2005, courtesy of ESPN:
Pitches 1-15 - 3.20 ERA
16-30 - 1.78 ERA
31-45 - 4.20 ERA
46-60 - 4.91 ERA
61-65 - 5.19 ERA
66-90 - 4.50 ERA
And that’s the exact opposite of the team avg trend (more pitches mean a lower team ERA). Heilman isn’t suited to start, as much as he wants to be.
Why don’t these carry any real weight? They are basically the same point, and that point is that we are comparing a known contribution (70 innings of excellent relief) with an unknown contribution (170-210 innings of poor-to-excellent starting).
Just as one can make a rational argument for why Heilman will succeed as a starter, it’s just as easy to make an argument that he might well suck until he proves otherwise.
…to continue:
You have 4 cards to a flush. Your opponent has 3 kings and bets. Do you keep your money and say, “3 kings is a darn good hand, I fold,” or do you say, “I’m all in! If I hit my flush, it’ll be fabulous!” If you’d prefer the latter, cool, but I think you can understand why some would choose the former.
Ya know, now that you mention it, I still haven’t seen a good argument why Heilman would make a good starter.
Overall ERA W L SV SVO G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
Total 4.65 8 13 5 6 72 25 1 201.1 193 110 104 23 91 179 .254
Reliever 2.13 3 0 5 6 47 0 0 68.2 49 18 16 1 25 73 .202
Starter 5.93 5 13 0 0 25 25 1 134.2 144 92 88 22 66 106 .279
His peripherals are all great as a reliever and not good as a starter. The only time he’s had success starting is in spring training, where you only throw a few innings, and even when you go for, half of the other team’s lineup has been replaced by the time you get through it a second time.
Tim, I actually agree with you about Heilman staying in the pen (at least for now) but I still have to point out a problem with the above stats. Those who believe Heilman will be a very good starter are saying that he became a better pitcher in the middle of last year when he went back to his old delivery, and, therefore, you can’t use his mediocre past history as a starter(from ‘03, ‘04 and the beginning of ‘05) as evidence that he can’t hack it in the rotation. If you agree with that assessment, then you can’t use Heilman’s results after, say, 45 pitches to show he’s not suited to be a starter because they all came in the beginning of the year when he was starting (before he changed his delivery). The numbers for his first 30 pitches, though, come mostly from his relief appearances (after he changed his delivery) and that could be why they are so much better.
If I remember correctly he changed his delivery last year in spring training. You can argue that it may have taken a while for him to get used to it but he went back to his old delivery in spring training last year. So you can look at all of his starts from last year when he pitched well at times but got lit up other times.
Isn’t it just as possible that his recent success has little to do with the new delivery, and everything to do with the move to the bullpen? Think about it for a second — he did have a few dominating performances while throwing over the top, it was possible, but he performs poor overall, switches the delivery and goes to the bullpen. Out of the pen, being able to air it out, he starts throwing about 5 mph harder, making his good change that much more effective. We’ve got a scenerio where we’re assuming causality without isolating variables.
So the emperical evidence is murky, but there’s a very good rational for believing it’s the bullpen that’s causing his success — he throws two pitches, that travel difference speeds, but break in the exact same way. Once you get used to that, you can hit him. It makes sense that he would be better in short work, so while the numbers are questionable, it’s a better guess that that’s what’s going on. At least in my opinion.
Like someone said above, it is like a poker game, but unlike the scenerio he presented, we can also count cards a little, and have a better grasp of the odds.
Hey, let’s give some props to Rick P.:
“With the Dodgers, Sanchez said he used to set up for each pitch with his arms bent at almost a 90-degree angle, his glove hand and the baseball parallel with his chin.
“Peterson moved the set position down closer to Sanchez’s chest, at a 45-degree angle, a change which Sanchez says has improved his command while creating a less stiff delivery.”
From the Mets site.
Site ate my long-ish comment, which was a rebuttal similar to what udamnwright just said.
I’d like to propose a hypothetical, though — say Heilman’s success had nothing to do with his arm angle at all, that maybe the change allowed him some new confidence, and the move to the bullpen allowed him to air it out and throw 5 mph faster, making the changeup that much better. Would we notice that it had nothing to do with the arm angle? No, it would look just like it looks now. It’s just as likely that moving to the bullpen was a bigger factor in Heilman’s resurgence than the new arm angle. But in fact, like udamnwright said, it’s MORE likely, because he did start some games with the sidearm delivery, and had mixed success.
I thought the delivery change was a midyear adjustment (did he go back down to the minors at all in the middle of last year or am I making that up?) but if I am wrong about that then I think I am even more firmly entrenched now in the camp of keeping Heilman in the bullpen (at least for now).
Cool, responses to play with for once.
Heilman, 2005, courtesy of ESPN:
Yes, but those numbers aren’t representative. I don’t have the time right now to type out a long response, but the fact of the matter is, Heilman hasn’t beee hit hard since last May. He excelled as a reliever last year, he excelled as a winter league starter, he dominated in Spring as a starter, and now he’s back to dominating as a reliever.
He has the potential to be a great starter. Think anyone was worried about how two-pitch arsenal during the one-hitter? Any starter converted to relief will have a similar split to the one above. Rather than pacing yourself for a whole game, you can come in, face three guys, and throw your sickest stuff. Although I can see *why* people might be mislead, I don’t agree.
Also, his repertoire isn’t two pitches anymore. He added a third pitch (I do forget what it is) that he ditched once he entered the pen again. Doesn’t need it. Seriously fellas - when you watch Heilman, you know he’s back to the basics. He has been a starter his whole career, even as a stud prospect coming up the system. 2005 was a renaissance for Aaron - it wasnt conversion to the bullpen that made him what he is.
Right right Heilman should be a starter blah blah…
and Victor Diaz deserved right field too right? I guarantee our record wouldnt be anywhere near what it is if Victor started in RF.
No good arguments come on??? How ’bout out of the pen Heilman can affect 2-3 games out of 5 as opposed to 1 out of 5.
How bout our bullpen is the best in the majors right now WITH Heilman?
How bout Henry Owens + Bell (while very nice and looking good so far this year) cannot hold Heilman’s jock at the ML level till proven otherwise. I’m so tired of hearing the oh we can bring up Bell he can do what Heilman is doing…sure he can. Maybe if pitching was all aobut peripherals and not about actually throwing the friggin ball and getting outs.
If you dont see those as arguments to keep him in the BP…then I guess you’re right, there are no good ones.
And if we move Heilman back to the rotation…everybody in favor of it better take responsibility when Sanchez has 100-120 inngs or so and is not even close to being the same pitcher next year. Enjoy.
This debate always shocks me. I see it boiling down to this:
1) If Heilman can be an effective starter, then he is much more valuable pitching as a starter. If people disagree with this statement, then they shouldn’t be part of this discussion. An effective starter is always better than an effective reliever if only because he’ll throw more innings (and in this case, Heilman isn’t even necessary throwing all high-leverage innings so the only conceivable argument in my mind goes out the window).
2) Given that we have two viable replacements - Bell and Owens - who could be anywhere from solid to excellent, why would you NOT want to find out if Heilman can start? It’s not like a few bad starts will mean he can’t return to the bullpen. And during the time you give him those starts, Bell and/or Owens will throw at most 5-6 innings…and again at most 1 of those innings would need to be high-leverage when you have Sanchez and Wagner.
3) So finally, since we have the luxury of good bullpen replacements, why would you NOT want to know what we have in Heilman? I understand that he might not be a great starter, but we’re not saying that once he moves to the rotation he MUST stay there for the rest of the year.
All told, we have a logjam in the bullpen (Owens can’t move up because Bell can’t move up because this team wants to keep Oliver and Feliciano on the 25-man roster and Heilman in the bullpen), and we have an issue at starter. This situation has such an obvious solution - Heilman as starter - that it drives me crazy that we’re going to all costs to find a different guy. If we start Pelfrey’s arbitration clock early or screw up Maine’s confidence simply because we are too stubborn to even TRY Heilman, we are basically throwing away a potential year of “cheap Pelfrey” or “decent Maine” which we will desparately need when we are paying Wright, Reyes, Sanchez, Nady, and Heilman real contracts.
And no, I’m not saying that Heilman will be a good starter (though I think he will); I’m just saying that we should find out if he can be, because whatever tiny short-term costs we incur to the bullpen from Bell/Owens being less effective than Heilman are much much smaller than what we stand to lose long-term if we never discover Heilman’s potential.
with all due respect dd420…
Victor Diaz never had a shot. Him and Nady performed equally in spring. Who knows what might have happened. VD had an incredible April last season.
And yes, Heil will affect more games out of the pen, but “affect” isnt the right way to look at it. He can start, and pitch 200 great innings, or relieve and pitch 80 great ones.
JRRM - haha man, sorry if I came off as attacking you…some reason this whole thread really really got to me. Lets just chalk it up to a bad day at the office, and why I brought up Victor Diaz is beyond me…I dont even recognize the rant I wrote. Either way sorry bro’ didnt mean to come at you like that. I hope you never by now I’m not really the attacking type without a good reason, and I can’t come up with one now :)
I still don’t buy u look at just total innings of value provided vs games affected. I think the whole “team” concept has to be looked at…is the team stronger with AH in the pen or the rotation? Will Heilman do that much better than Maine or Pelfrey or whoever? I’m just not sure he will. Will Bell be able to pick up the slack left by heilman not being in the pen? I highly doubt it. If Heilman fails at starting…then what do you do? I think that could be a major problem.
I dont know…I love Heilman and want him starting, i just dont think it should be now.
I’d rather see Maine again, and maybe even Pelfrey and some other young’ns before I even thought about bringing AH back.
Heilman would have to basically pitch like an Ace (not really, no worse than a #3) to make it even worthwhile to move him…that’s a lot of pressure. We have a ton of #4s and #5’s as is…we don’t need another, we need someone at the top of the rotation, at least a #3. If Heilman pitches OK but not at the level of a #3 pitcher, its a wasted move this year.
I also think the effect on Sanchez if Heilman is removed is something that hasn’t even been talked about. He historically averages about 80 innings a year even though everyone says oh can pitch every day and wants the ball. I just think Sanchez is gonna get so overused and by the time we are going down the stretch, he might not be as effective as he is right now. And if Sanchez throws 120 innings this year, he will not be as good next year, no reliever ever is.
All in all I just think its a big gamble that has more risk than reward at this point. I really want Maine to get another start, I think his last one was no one near his potential.
Let’s look at Heilman as a two-pitch pitcher and wondering if he can be in the rotation as a starter.
I’m not going to compare the two, but for argument’s sake, Dwight Gooden was a two-pitch pitcher as well, until Mel messed him up.
With Duaner Sanchez’s emergence out of the bullpen, I think Heilman will be just fine in the rotation.
Let’s look at this way for just one second.
Is the difference between Heath Bell and Aaron Heilman out of the bullpen bigger than that of Heilman over Maine/Bannister/Zambrano?
No. Heath Bell would be doing just fine up here in the bigs, and so too would Heilman in the rotation.
I don’t see how in the world you can say no…just like I can’t say yes…it’s a big fat unknown. Bell was hitter harder than rented mule last we saw him at the ML level.
One more thing, why aren’t the Mets going hard after Roger Clemens?
Why should he go to the Yankees or the Red Sox when he can go to an NL team without the DH. Why go to the AL East where there is a dogfight, or the NL Central where everyone except the Pirates is a contender!
Why not come to the NL East, where offense goes to die? We have the money to burn, go hard after Clemens and fix this rotation question once and for all.
Pedro-Rocket-Glavine-Trachsel-Zambrano/Maine/Bannister
Heath Bell has shown marked improvement, of course we can’t figure out if there is a difference between Heath Bell and Aaron Heilman until Heath gets called up to the bigs.
I’d rather not win, then win with Clemens. but that’s just me
True that…it is time for Bell to get called up and lets see what he’s made of and if he can fill Heilmans shoes.