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March 29, 2006
Roster Shuffling
Here is a list of the things the Mets have decided on recently. 1. Brian Bannister in the rotation, Aaron Heilman in the bullpen Those three positions, 5th SP, 2B and RF, were the questions in Mets camp this year and as of yesterday, have all been decided upon. And I disagree with every decision made. First, let’s tackle the Bannister/Heilman decision. This offseason, the Mets made two trades involving starting pitchers. However you feel about those deals, the fact remains that the Mets traded away Kris Benson and Jae Seo for relief pitching help. That help would pave the way for Aaron Heilman to move into the rotation which, from all accounts, seemed like the plan. That is until two things happened… 1. Juan Padilla got injured in Spring Training. With the injury to Juan Padilla, the Mets became somewhat concerned about their bullpen again (specifically, who was going to get out tough lefties). Combine that with Bannister’s strong performance early in the spring and the Mets started to consider the idea of moving Aaron Heilman back to the bullpen, where he was lights out last season. And this is where I take the first issue. I’ve written about Juan Padilla before and still believe that it was, before his injury, quite reasonable to expect his performance to regress a good amount this season. I still feel he would have been an average (maybe slightly above average) reliever for the Mets this season. Is that the type of reliever that forces you to take a young pitcher, who has done nothing to show he shouldn’t be starting, out of the rotation and put in a player who has no major league experience? When Padilla was healthy, this is what the projected 6-man bullpen for the Mets looked like… Wagner, Sanchez, Padilla, Julio, Bradford, LOOGY With Padilla injured, the Mets had to find another reliever to take his spot. So how about Heath Bell? Heath, while he tends to keep his straight fastball up in the zone a little too much, still does have great stuff and peripherals and I think could be expected to bring his ERA back down to an about average level this year. Is this bullpen… Wagner, Sanchez, Bell, Julio, Bradford, LOOGY …that much worse than the other one that the Mets are now forced to take Heilman out of the rotation? I don’t think so at all (I actually think it is no worse). This is nothing against Bannister, who I think will become a solid middle to end of the rotation starter at some point. But, for right now, I think the Mets are being extremely short-sighted for two main reasons… 1. At some point, they have to figure out what they have with Aaron Heilman in terms of being a starter. Aaron has the potential to be a very good starter for this team for many years and I think, for the future of this team (which, with the money and young players they have, they should be concerned with), they need to let him start and see if that is where his future is. By relegating him to the bullpen again I fear that he may just end up as a reliever, which would make him much less valuable to the team in the future if he was only throwing 70-80 innings as opposed to 200. And this doesn’t even tackle his own desire to start. 2. What happens if someone in the rotation gets injured? Now, either the options are bringing Heilman out of the pen or a pitcher from Triple-A (someone like, shudder, Jose Lima). The latter is clearly not a desirable option and having to use Heilman would lead to having to re-adjust the bullpen order and force Heilman to get back into the routine of starting. I think the Mets are best off letting Bannister get a little bit more seasoning in Triple-A, while being ready as the team’s 6th starter if they need one, which they most likely will because all teams use at least one 6th starter throughout the season. I think the difference between Bannister in the rotation and Heilman in the bullpen isn’t that much greater than Heilman in the rotation and Bell in the bullpen for the Mets to not allow Heilman to start. I think for future reasons, both later this season when the Mets need a 6th starter and years down the road, Heilman should start the season in the rotation. But, this is not the decision that bothers me most (maybe partly because I became resigned to the fact that it was going to happen). The one that does is the Jeff Keppinger/Anderson Hernandez situation. Back in late January, I wrote a piece on the Mets second base situation and started by wondering why the Mets had not made a move to find a player to fill the position. Then, after discussing each player, came to the conclusion that the best option was letting Matsui start the season there. Which was the plan… until he got injured. So that left the Mets with two options, Anderson Hernandez and Jeff Keppinger. And from day one, Jeff Keppinger never had a shot. Jeff Keppinger is a solid hitter. He doesn’t have that much power, but he is a good average hitter and will take a few walks. Something around .280/.320/.400 seems like a reasonable output from him with the bat (ZIPS says .294/.342/.367, if you are interested). Defensively, he doesn’t do anything special, but he won’t hurt you that much either. Basically, an average to maybe slightly below average defensive player. And that’s his downfall, at least to the Mets. Anderson Hernandez has a flashy glove. He is a great defender. And that is what the Mets love about him. Unfortunately, he has no bat to go with it. At this point, I’d peg Hernandez to be batting around .200 at the end of a month and because I doubt he’ll take many walks, that might leave him with an OBP below .250. Even if we ignore my total pessimism on his hitting, I still don’t think many expect him to reasonably have an OBP at even .300. And considering that he doesn’t hit for power, he could very easily sit in a .600-.650 OPS range. Meanwhile, I would have Keppinger pegged in the .700-.725 range. After accounting for their defense, I don’t think Hernandez, who is still adjusting a little bit from SS to 2B, would make up all the runs he loses to Keppinger on offense. And even if does, and we can call them even players, I have a second problem with this move. And that is their futures. Jeff Keppinger is pretty much what he is. A solid hitter and an OK defensive player. Anderson Hernandez, on the other hand, is a great defensive player and an unrefined hitter. Since Matsui should not be out for that long, I think the Mets should play Keppinger, the more major league ready player overall, for the time before Matsui comes back. I think the odds of Hernandez actually hitting early this season are quite slim and I think he would be better off getting more Triple-A at-bats for his future then not hitting well at the major league level. Keppinger, on the other hand, has proven with his bat that he deserves a chance right now to at least show he can play on the major league level, even if it is eventually in a utility role. If we assume their total production is about even, then the Mets would have been better off letting Keppinger play until Matsui comes back instead of Hernandez, who still needs to work on his hitting in the minors to have a chance to be a regular starter down the road. And finally, we get to the Victor Diaz/Xavier Nady situation. We have all known for awhile that Nady would be starting in right field and that Victor Diaz would not. I even wrote an article on this topic last week. But I still don’t get it. After a torrid start to spring training, Xavier Nady has done nothing with the bat. And while Diaz has not fared much better than Nady’s total numbers, there is nothing separating the two at this point that makes it clear cut that Nady should be starting. Therefore, like I have believed all along, both should get a chance to start in RF this season. But, what is decided is decided, and Nady is the starter. The more pressing concern is whether Diaz will make the team. There has been a lot of different rumors about whether Diaz will be sent to Triple-A or not. I tend to believe that he will end up making the 25 man roster, but here are the locks for the bench, right now. Franco, Woodward, Castro, Chavez And here are the locks for the bullpen… Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Julio, Bradford, LOOGY That leaves 2 open spots. My choices for the two spots would be Victor Diaz and Jeff Keppinger (Now, obviously, Jeff Keppinger is not going to make the bench with his demotion to Norfolk today.) What is interesting is that part of Victor Diaz’s fate could rely on if the Mets decide to take a 12th pitcher, which they are now thinking about. That 12th pitcher would presumably (maybe I should say hopefully) be Heath Bell. In this case, there is one spot left between Jose Valentin, Victor Diaz and Tike Redman. And with Diaz having options and Woodward’s ability to play some OF, I could easily see the Mets take Jose Valentin (I have no idea why he would be chosen over Jeff Keppinger, but I’ve done enough Keppinger ranting for one day). In my opinion, if the Mets do decide to go with 12 pitchers (and I think they should only go with 11), they would be best off carrying Diaz over Valentin or Redman for his bat. While one part of these three decisions has yet to been made (whether Victor Diaz comes north with the team), I think the Mets have made a mistake with their choice in each situation. And while it is possible that these decisions could work out in the immediate future, I think the Mets have made the wrong decisions, when you consider both the short and long term. 135 Responses to “Roster Shuffling”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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If this is true, I certainly agree with your argument. But do we know this for sure? Do we know for sure that Willie won’t pull Heilman out of the bullpen for a couple of weeks in order to give him a couple of starts if someone goes on the DL? Willie has shown some surprising flexibility this spring. And I am sure Heilman would be willing to do it.
I do agree with your larger point. The absolute drawback of this decision is what the Mets may do if a starter needs to be filled in for. That is what I am waiting to see. What will the Mets do in this situation?
This idea has been bandied about a lot lately, is it all hearsay and conjecture or is it actually based on any sort of statistical/historical observation? I feel like my entire life I’ve seen guys make spot starts out of the bullpen. I could be wrong; maybe I’m confusing guys called up from Triple A with bullpen pitchers.
As far as I’m concerned, a guy like Heilman who’s young and desperate to crack the starting rotation should be able to muster competitive fire enough to get him through 5 innings in a spot start.
found this on rotoworld
I wonder if the nationals would trade him in division.
While we’re at it why not grab Church too.
JRRM, Rickey is NOT telling Reyes to “be aggressive”. He’s telling him to “be aggressive in the strike zone“. “Learn where the zone is” is the first part of that; Rickey said so. Reyes seems to be a slow learner.
I’m putting Jose at a .318 OBP this year. Higher than .340 and I’d be stunned.
I’m also disappointed that Reyes hasn’t tried Rickey’s basestealing approach (right foot steps first), but that’s more curiosity on my part than defficiency on Jose’s. :)
That seems a bit harsh. He is 22 years old and was rushed to the big leagues, not to mention the injury problems that also stunted his growth. Does he have great room for improvement? Yes, of course. But it isn’t that also what makes his potential so tantalizing?
Pitchers are not going to pitch around him. They are going to challenge him, particularly with fastballs early in the count. Let’s see if Reyes does a better job of making some adjustments. Goodness, he is still so young, let’s give him some time.
My two cents:
Put Heilman as your number 5 starter. Let Bannister pitch a month in AAA and in about a month Trax, Pedro, or Glavine will be injured or Zambrano will blow up.
Nady over Diaz. I think that Nady has tremendous potential. Send Diaz to AAA. He’ll be back up in a month or so too with Bannister.
Ahern over Kepp. Might as well throw Ahern to the sharks for a couple weeks until Matsui comes back. If he looks amazing bench Matsui, if he looks promising put him in AAA. However, if he looks just awful start making plans for another 2b of the future. Hopefully Ahern, Reyes, and Wright mold nicely together and they can make up the infield for the next 10 years.
Another comment:
I heard that next year we have very few people signed to big amounts of money. Does that mean that the Mets will try to trade their young (Diaz, Bannister, Milledge) for a huge contract, or does the Mets let their young take over.
I’m just excited for 5-8 years from now with Reyes, Wright, Milledge, Pelfry, Ahern just starting to see their prime. That is going to be scary (I hope)
First of all, for a short window, as with the staff now constituted, we’re still a better team with Heilman as a reliever.
Secondly, pitchers move back and forth from the BP to the rotation for spot starts all the time. I hate to keep referencing the Yankees (you can’t argue with their success), but Ramiro Mendoza bounced back and forth all the time, was effective at both, and became, according to Joe Torre, an untouchable when teams asked for him in trades. That’s just one example, but the point is, 5 innings in a spot start (or an extended relief appearance, for that matter) is not an unusual feat for a major league relief pitcher.
I hate to say it but i think they take on more big contract veterans like a zitto.too bad im a total let the kids play guy
This is true, but these are generally the “long relievers” who are counted on to pitch 3 innings or so in relief on a regular basis. There appears no indication that Heilman will be a long reliever. I mean, how can you expect a guy to go from throwing 30-40 pitches every two days or so to having to give you a solid 5-6 innings. That is a lot of extra strain on an arm, and while he might be able to do it, that is how careers are ruined.
There is a reason Heilman went to winter league ball to “strengthen” his arm to compete for a starting position.
Rather ironic considering your screen name. Wagner is a high-priced veteran who took a closers job that some would argue could be filled by the young Mr Heilman.
I’m a “get whoever gives us the best team regardless of age or original organization” guy.
And there is a reason he is back in the pen: to “strengthen” the 2006 Mets.
2. Anderson Hernandez as the starting second baseman, Jeff Keppinger in Norfolk
Jeremy 2 out of 3 aint bad. jeff was hurt yea that sounds like a great idea as the 2nd basemen.
If pulling guys out of the bullpen to make spot starts is such a good idea, why do so many guys get called up from AAA for that then? Why not call up an AAA reliever? And like sweetlew said, why did Aaron go start all Winter to prepare for a starting role if its that simple?
I mean, I can’t back it up with anything right now, but I think its pretty obvious that having Heilman relieve then spot start out of the pen is a pretty atrocious idea… both for his performance and his health.
As much as I’ve disagreed with some recent Met roster moves- The Nationals are worse- demoting Ryan Church in favor of Brandon Watson is just nuts. The equivalent move on the Mets would be if the Mets demoted Heilman to make room for someone like Tim Hamulack; or if the Yankees decided to demote Cano and replace him with someone like Melky Cabrera
Watch, as soon as Heilman, (who I think will be a solid number 2 or excellent number 3 starter in the furture), is available for free agency is gonna leave and not even look at the Mets offer. This is a terrible move for the Mets. He was gonna be our number 5 starter with number 3 capabilities.
Settle down there Evan — Heilman can’t go anywhere until after the 2010 season.
Way to cherry-pick my post. Considering I was discussing the arm strength and the fact that Heilman can’t just bounce back into the rotation. Really shows off your mental muscle when you do that.
regarding 2B:
The Mets (and anyone) could always use the best bat available for a position, but who would argue that our SPs aren’t the scariest part of the Mets roster this year? (Toes, AARP, extreme Trachselness, Zambranowalks, and rookies) And good defense helps pitchers. And AHern is judged the best defensive second baseman. Aside from Pedro, the rotation doesn’t seem to be built of strikeout pitchers. If the old saw is true that pitching wins a penant, and wins a World Series, then the Mets need defense at 2B to protect the shaky ptiching, first and foremost.
i am just dumbfounded by what willie and omar do sometimes…what keepinger and heath bell have done to be on willies backburner and be given absolutely no attention is beyond me…..i mean for god sakes lets say pedro glav trach or zam go down with an injury or because one of them is absolutely stinking up the joint, do you realize the mets will 99 percent sure give heilman the cold shoulder again…they willl more than likely and i will bet my lucky charms they give a spot to jose lima…yea the herpes infested old crappy pitcher…pathetic…pure pathetic….and let me tell you i have been watching nady this past sprong games and he is not that good…the guy looks retarted at the plate pulling every single pitch he sees and grounding out…the pticher throws otuside nonstop and he is pulling everything…
Way to get defensive when someone disagrees with you!
Yes, Heilman went to winter ball to strengthen his arm for a potential spot in the rotation. He pitched well there and in spring training. I get it.
However, with Bannister now considered a vialble 5th starter, Heilman is more valuable to the Mets out of the bullpen. Aside from the need for several shut-down arms in a top-flight bullpen (which we will not reach the post-season without), there is also the distinct possibility that Wagner will miss time this season. Had the tendon-sheath problem occurred next week rather than last, and Heilman was a starter, we would have exactly one pitcher I would feel even close to comfortable with in the 8th or 9th inning of a close game. Would you really like to start the season in that situation? I wouldn’t.
I can see why you prefer Heilman starting. There is some merit to that argument and if he had been named the 5th starter I would have disagreed but understood the rationale.
What puzzles me is that some posters here completely dismiss the merits of the decision to use him in the pen.
Do you think that Minaya, Randolph and Peterson have not considered the ramifications of the decision and/or are not intimately familiar with Heilman’s and Bannisters strengths, weaknesses and potential sensitivities?
Disagreement is fine, but you took my statement totally out of context — I did overreact however, bygones.
I don’t disagree with you that Heilman in the pen makes the 2006 Mets a better over all team. I think he is getting shafted a little, but he ain’t the first and won’t be the last.
My concern is starting pitching depth. Which we had and now we don’t. Bannister in AAA was top flight insurance if a starter got hurt. Heilman could transition back to starting under the right circumstances. However, if someone goes down in July, after he has been in the pen for three months, he cannot “magically” become a 6 inning dependable starter. The only option at that point is ______? Fill-in the blank, none of them are pretty.
IMHO, the depth to the starting rotation (considering Pedro’s toe, Glavine’s age, Trax’s back, and Zambrano inability to throw strikes) is more important than an improved bullpen. Heilman does make the pen better, but not as much better as the rotation will be worse if we have Lima picking up 10 starts in July-August.
Where are all those people who said we should have signed Burnett to a big deal?
So long Tike Redman.
I wouldn’t be so concerned about that. As others have noted, Heilman’s not a free agent until 2010 (according to today’s Daily News anyway), and if he’s given a chance to start in 2007 I highly doubt that he’ll still be stewing, in 2010, about being passed over 4 years earlier.
If you want to argue about putting Heilman in the pen for 2006 that’s one thing, but let’s worry about 2010 when the time comes.
I ponder that question myself. Head case and arm problem then, Head case and arm problems now. Wasn’t He the Marlins pitcher who had a band name on his bat to be cool.
With Glavine and perhaps Pedro at or near the end of their top-of-the rotation status, and any in-house options not yet ready to claim said status, we have a window in 2006 that could close on us quickly. So I say do what’s best for this year (within reason).
Agreed, and I think Minaya feels the same way. For this reason I see OM going hard for a front-line starter as the season unfolds. Anticipating this is part of why he feels confdent about using Heilman in the pen. Could it backfire? Sure, but if the rotation has major issues that can’t be repaired via trade, and/or the pen is not air-tight (which I don’t think it can be without Heilman out there), we’re not making noise in the post-season anyway. I appreciate Minaya’s go-for-broke mentality.
I was being a wise-ass. Sorry if it offended.
I was just at a charity event for the company i work for and they had a silent auction with one of the prizes being 4 field level seats to a mets game and on field passes for batting practice while the mets hit before the game…our big bossman took home a punch of auction prizes including that one…I am sooo psyched cuz there’s only one other met fan in the office so I know i’m in. :) I just hope I don’t come off as a total jackass to someone like d wright cuz i just stand right next to him with awe and my mouth wide open and not saying anything, anything at all…not cuz i dont want to, cuz i can’t.
The depth at the starting rotation is definitely a bit scary now, the bullpen has the ability to be dominant so maybe that helps by shortening some games over the course of the season…It will sure be interesting to see how things play out
thank god I dont think Omar views Lima as a possible 6th starter…he made some comment yesterday saying how lima doesn’t bring enough to the table for them but he loves his clubhouse presence. make him a trainer or court jester or local magician but for god sakes please dont think of him as a potential starter for the 2006 mets.
Here’s something else i was thinking about: Why not wait and let heilman start and see if the bullpen can hold its own and then leave heilman in the rotation for the entire year? what if the bullpen falters and the mets see the solution of putting heilman in the pen and bannister into the roation, but in the middle of the year?
Wouldnt that be like 1000x worse for heilman??? say he was pitching real well and the bullpen was killing us…he would’ve been crushed to go to a role he doesnt like when he was succeeding….and unfortunately for him that might’ve been the mets only option depending on the trade market, and every good team is always looking for bullpen help, s**t even TB is looking for bullpen help.
I just think that Omar and whoever thought this move had to be made and on top it had to be now…and it might actually be easier on heilman because of that.
I dont know, kind of rambling but it was on my mind.
Paul Lo Duca is gonna be huge for this team…did anyone see today? The guy has fire in his veins and will lead this team on and off the field, regardless of how many games he starts. Besides diving across the plate to try and make a tag and not getting the call and getting into with the blue…. He actually got ejected today (the only regular met in action, only there to catch glavine) arguing strikes while he was at-bat…not for his own cause, but to protect glavine and get on the ump for not giving his boy the same calls. I love it.
Isnt AJ burnett the same guy that got a batboy fired after betting him $500 or something he couldnt drink a gallon of milk in 10 minutes?
Possibly… I would still prefer it though. Lets face it - a bullpen arm is easier to find than a good starter. Right now, we have a guy who could be either. Wouldn’t basic math stand to reason that we should use him as a good starter and go find a good reliever?
Don’t you think we could even turn some poop like Zambrano into a reasonable bullpen arm? Or find some help on the Farm? I think we could. There’s no chance in hell we’re going to catch a flash in the pan starter like we might a flash in the pan reliever.
Brad Penny.
After watching Mike Piazza with the permanent look of indifference and passivity, it’s a welcome change.
I think any thought that Omar had about Lima being the Mets 6th starter went to Hell when he self-imploded the other day. Iriki, Maine and Soler are also now off the grid. If we need another starter, I’m afraid it’s going to be one of three possibilities: 1) Heilman comes back as a starter, leaving the bullpen in questionable hands 2) A trade which will force us to say goodbye to Lastings Milledge and Victor Diaz or 3) The Mets will roll the dice and throw Mike Pelfrey straight from Class A to the wolves.
Ask him if it’s hard to catch up to a good fastball if the pitcher’s been working him with soft stuff. (Then hope for a more thoughtful answer than “sure, sometimes”.)
That was the biggest weakness I saw in DW last year, and if he can “fix” it, he could be even better.
Put all the blame on me, say, “This Mets fan I know won’t leave me alone, he’s been hounding me to ask you this…” You won’t have to worry about thinking of what to say, just call me a dickhead and ask him my question. :)
Nice summary of our 6th starter options, Sean:
I’d guess that Heilman would be able to switch back anytime in April. And maybe in May, for a 65-pitch start and then working his way back up. I’d take this over option 3 and probably 2 as well.
Trade: definite possibility.
Goodbye Diaz: definite possibility.
Goodbye Milledge: rather unlikely. Omar stated during yesterday’s game that it’s important to bring up one significant player out of the minors every year. He didn’t argue with speculations that Milledge is in the plans for ‘07.
Bad idea. For a competing ML team, success is all that matters. In his first year in pro ball, Pelfrey should be learning and adjusting and thinking long-term. (And staying healthy!) His change looked avg-to-mediocre in camp. He wasn’t blowing his fastball by people. He can only occasionally command his curve. Just because he was a #1 pick does not mean he has so much talent that he can put away ML hitters right away.
A couple of things -
1) Heilman’s ERA was not good as a starter in 2005, but all of his peripherals were (WHIP, K/9, BAA).
2) Heilman was a statistically worse reliever in June and July last season than he was a starter in April. Inconsistent, just like he was as a starter. Just like most young pitchers trying to figure things out.
With the unknowns of Julio, Wagner’s finger, and the other lefty out of the pen, I see the wisdom in moving Heilman to the ‘pen to start the season. However, it should be a temporary move. As the season progresses, the Mets should be evaluating what they’ve got in Julio, Bell, Ring, Feliciano, Iriki, et al, and looking to ultimately give Heilman a longer look in the rotation.
Heilman’s big (6′5, 220), intelligent, and he’s bringing back his 3rd pitch (slider) now that he’s more comfortable with his new mechanics.
Kazmir had an ERA around 5 after his first 26 starts. That didn’t make him a bad starter, just inexperienced. Granted, he’s younger than Heilman, but Heilman’s delivery changes occurred last year, so pre-2005 numbers are kind of out the window.
You got it Agron :)
I have no idea what date the tickets are for…but I will let you know when I find out.