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March 14, 2006
Replacing Padilla
All offseason long, the Mets — and most notably Omar Minaya — have gotten flack for trading off their starting pitchers to shore up the bullpen. Jae Seo, despite turning 29 in May with a 22-24 record and an mostly pedestrian ERA of 3.85, has been trumpeted as the second coming of Greg Maddux by fans and talking heads alike. Meanwhile Kris Benson was probably the better pitcher given up this offseason, yet the guy has an undeniable history of wearing down as his season progresses. This would throw any postseason start into question, as well as some key starts he’d be making in September as the Mets would race for the pennant. In reality, the Mets gave up two questionable starting pitchers for a solid bullpen arm (Duaner Sanchez) and two other question marks (Jorge Julio and John Maine). With the news tonight being that Juan Padilla will miss this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Omar’s offseason additions either look a lot better, or a whole lot worse. As Jeremy wrote a few months back, Padilla was pretty much penciled in as the “Go To” guy when it came to facing lefthanded hitters. While it’s entirely possible that the Mets have plucked a shutdown lefty reliever out of the scrap heap — as of right now, the Mets have no one in their pen to turn to. With the subtractions of Benson and Seo, the Mets were forced to add Aaron Heilman to the rotation. While his spring numbers have been terrific (1-0, 1.80 ERA, four hits and a run in five innings of work — five K’s, no walks), his actual season numbers out of the bullpen last season were even better. Heilman held lefties to a .208 batting average in 52 innings, and showed attitude and dominance at the end of games. With Padilla now out, the Mets may be feeling the heat to return Heilman to the bullpen. But who would replace Heilman? Equally as good this spring has been Brian Bannister, a guy who’s been highly touted by the Mets scouts and coaches. In his five innings of work he’s allowed two hits while walking one and striking out four. In his game against the Astros, people continually were wowed by his poise and his control. Though Heilman has the potential to put up some terrific numbers in the rotation, it’s more likely that he’d be a league average or better starter for the majority of the year. Meanwhile, there’s a good chance that Bannister could provide just as serviceable a job as well. While the Mets have thinned themselves out in the rotation, this setback now thins them out in the pen as well. With Sanchez and Wagner at the end of games, the eighth and ninth innings look fairly solid, but what will the Mets do before that? While starters should be expected to pitch into the seventh inning, there’s a lot of age and injury risk in the Mets rotation. For this reason, it’s a good idea to go with the strongest bullpen possible, and the addition of Heilman would likely do that for the Mets. Though it’s not the ideal move, it may be the best choice they’ve got right now. 107 Responses to “Replacing Padilla”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Didn’t get it. If you would kindly resend to drpetelove@gmail.com, that would be mighty fine.
Anyone think Duaner’s gonna get rattled protecting an 8th inning lead against the Braves after this?
“Venezuela had the middle of its order up in the bottom half of the ninth, with one last chance to stay alive. Dominican Republic closer Duaner Sanchez sent down Abreu and Cabrera, and walked Victor Martinez. Ramon Hernandez reached on an error, and Sanchez then walked Carlos Guillen to load the bases. But there would be no miracle as Sanchez got Edgardo Alfonzo to fly out to end the game.”
“Benson’s K/9 rate fell off a cliff last year. Fewer than 5 per 9 innings. Terrible. His hits per nine innings were about the same despite this precipitious delcine in K’s, which strongly suggests Benson was pitching in good luck.”
I know where you’re going w/ this and it seems like and excuse to slight a player that is no longer here. You can take any one (fantasy) stat and skew it any way you want. Pedro’s k/per 9 was a career low last year, was he LUCKY? KB’s stats last year were very much in line w/ his career averages. Listen, if you want to bash KB for his late season health issues, im with you. But when he’s healthy he’s eff. (remember the yankees game last year) - and id take him as a 3 or 4 anyday. People love to bash this guy - but the Luck angle is a new low.
Let’s assume (hope!) that Heilman has a spot in the rotation. Can anyone think of a good reason (other than Rick Peterson’s ego) not to give Bannister a spot in the rotation over Zambrano? Think of the potential upside. If Bannister has any shot at all of earning a rotation spot, what could he possibly do that he hasn’t already done? You can put Zambrano in the bullpen as a specialist. Let Zambrano what he does better than anyone - hit opposing batters. When we need an opposing batter to be HBP, bring in Zambrano.
Obviously you’ve never heard of DIPS theory. I’m not just making this “luck” stuff up. Read some of Voros McCracken’s stuff. It’s a little elaborate for me to explain correctly off the top of my head, but DIPS theory basically states that only pitchers with high strikeout rates can sustain success in the major leagues. Once you dip below a certain strikeout rate, it is almost impossible to stay in the league for long. There are exceptions, like crafty left-handers, but Benson is a right-handed flyball pitcher. Strikeouts per nine innings is a crucial stat, not a “fantasy stat.” Bill James agrees. You want to disagree with Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, Bill James and Voros McCracken, go ahead.
Hits per nine innings and strikeouts per nine innings are very closely correlated. A pitcher like Benson in 2005 who only averaged less than 5 K’s per nine innings should be giving up a lot more than a hit per inning, yet Benson only allowed 8.8 hits per nine innings last year. When he struck out 5.5 guys per nine in 2002 with the Pirates, he allowed 10.5 hits per nine. That is more in line with his true level of ability. Benson was a pretty effective pitcher for a couple seasons and was not terrible in 2004 but his trendlines are headed down.
Either Benson will raise his K rate, or he will fail in Baltimore. 95 K’s in 175 innings is not going to cut it in the AL East. I am ecstatic he is gone. Bad contract, mediocre pitcher on the decline.
the Mets were not “forced” to trade Benson. They did it becase Aaron wanted to start. And now they have to find a new lefty. I thought Matt Perisho loked good before they snt him to the minor league camp. But my favorite was Henry Owens. If there is one thing Randolph is not good at it is picking players for the roster over their performance over sprin straining
[...] Two weeks ago, I wrote one of those pieces. [...]