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January 17, 2006
Who Am I?
Who Am I? I’m a toolsy six-foot tall switch-hitting shortshop from the Dominican Republic. I was signed as an undrafted free agent by New York and got my first taste of pro ball at the tender age of 17, where I posted about a 2:1 K:BB ratio and double digit steals despite a so-so batting average. It was good enough, though, because I was in the Florida State League by the time I was 19, hitting in the mid .280s with a little pop and improving my K:BB to almost 1:1. My age-20 season was a bit of a disappointment but I was in the big leagues by 21. I hit over .300 in the season that I came to The Show to stay, though my second full season wasn’t quite so pretty: a .300 OBP and a SLG in the mid 380’s. Some felt I was rushed to the big leagues and expected to produce right away for a team that had designs on a division championship, a judgment that might have been unduly influenced by weaker than usual divisional rivals. They say that I could have used more time in the minors working on my skills instead of trying to learn them on the job. My supporters, on the other hand, point to my youth, outstanding tools, and overwhelming athletic ability as signs that I will continue to improve. The more numbers-oriented folk say that I compensate for a low on-base percentage by scoring more than 42% of the time that I get on base. My coaches often mention how they’re impressed by my charisma, enthusiasm, and general joy when playing the game. Hometown writers love me. Any guesses? Time’s up. Cristian Guzman, come on down! For those just tuning in, Guzman posted a 111 OPS+ way back in 2001, making what seemed like a breakthrough. But since then he’s gotten steadily worse, posting declining numbers in each year since. Finally, six years after he broke through to the majors with a boatload of promise, Minnesota pulled the plug. The Washington Nationals saw untapped potential and signed him to a lucrative four-year deal despite his having posted some of the worst defensive numbers this side of Derek Jeter and having had only one half-decent season at the plate; Guzman went on to be one of the worst hitters in the major leagues in 2005, faring even worse than such luminaries as Endy Chavez, Roger Cedeno, Tony Womack, and Timo Perez (all speedy guys who can’t hit, by the way). So what does this have to do with Jose Reyes? On the one hand, maybe not much. Reyes isn’t Cristian Guzman, the Mets aren’t the Twins, and the Out-Guzzler is just one of any number of possible career paths that young Reyes could be on. On the other hand, it’s illustrative for a number of parallels. Not every toolsy kid who holds his own in the minors at a young age is destined for stardom; sometimes those tools just aren’t enough to get by at the major league level. It’d be wise to expect of Jose only the level of performance he has given in the past. Some tools players do reach their potential, though. Mike Cameron was a toolsy guy whose total package of defense, speed, baserunning, power, and patience (albeit not contact skills) made him one of the most underrated players in the game for a number of years. Magglio Ordonez, according to John Sickels (formerly of ESPN.com and currently of Minor League Ball), is another “example of a tools player made good”, and before his struggles with injury he was one of the premier outfielders in the game. And while we don’t know what makes one toolsy player a star and another a flameout, it certainly seems reasonable to guess that attitude and coaching — those things which help a young player understand how to use those tools of his — play a big role. That’s where the Mets should be focusing their energy on Jose Reyes: making sure he has the right coaching, and that he’s receptive to it. So far, the outlook may be bleak. While battling hamstring injuries, the young Reyes was said to have refused to follow the prescribed rehab and strengthening program, and Willie Randolph was quoted several times this season saying that he and his staff planned to fine Reyes for every flyball that he hit, preferring him to slap the ball around, hit it on the ground, and beat out infield hits. Never mind that Ichiro is the best player in the game at getting value out of his ground balls, and the average value of each of his ground balls is still negative!* There’s reason for hope here too, though. Many a veteran player is acquired with a nod towards mentoring the younger players, teaching them the little wily tricks that they’ll need to squeeze every drop of advantage out of their talent. And if that has real effects on a younger player’s career, then the Mets will be wise to put Reyes’ locker next to fellow Spanish-speaker and borderline Hall of Famer Carlos Delgado, and hope he listens to every blessed word that Delgado has to say. A player’s career could hang in the balance. * A study undertaken by Dave “studes” Studeman at The Hardball Times indicates that the average ground ball is worth -.1 runs, whereas the average ground ball hit by Ichiro is worh about -.04 runs: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pictures-of-batted-balls/. This should make sense: most ground balls are either outs, double plays, or singles, and faster players like Ichiro are more likely to beat out singles and less likely to hit into double plays. 37 Responses to “Who Am I?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Sorry to hog up the comments but i believ strongly that while could hit the ball on the ground and bunt and raise his BA by 15 points, he does have tremendous power to the gaps. IF any one recalls the article about LoDuca being a “clutch” hitter, i cited that Reyes was one of the most “clutch” hitters on the Mets. By taking away his ability to hit when we need Reyes to come through he might have just forgotten how to hit a real single
They love him in DC?
I don’t know about DC, but they adored him in Minnesota. I’ve spent a couple summers in Minnesota, and it was like every four or five days there was another Guzman article in the Pioneer Press. They were crazy about the guy.
Reyes is no Guzman. While I appreciate the parallels between the two career paths Jose Reyes is clearly a cut above. He obviously needs to work on being more patient, working walks, and raising his OBP but he’s still just a baby really and has already shown that he has greatness oozing out of him
As much as they loved him in Minnesota, Guzman was never close to being as electric as Reyes is
Were you a Twins fan in 2001-2002? No? Then I don’t think you can make a claim like that with any certainty.
I know I remember Guzman being projected as a Gold Glove SS with a .300 avg and 50 steals shortly into his ML career. And he was DEFINITELY electric, leading the league in triples twice.
Reyes’ bat speed and okay K rate make me think he won’t be a complete disaster at the plate the way Guzman is. But I certainly don’t think he’ll be passing Furcal or Rollins in the hitting department any time soon.
Brilliant. Let’s make sure that the ONLY way this kid gets hits is by using his legs. Forget about teaching him to get his body into his swing and drive the ball, the way you would with ANY OTHER YOUNG PLAYER.
I’m sorry, this makes me furious. Jose’s swing from the left side is embarrassing. Only his incredibly quick wrists ever get the ball out of the infield, the rest of his body is totally out of synch. Watch a slo-mo replay of his swing sometime, it’s PAINFUL.
(I know my response doesn’t perfectly fit the content of the quote — in fact, I agree that Jose needs to hit fewer lame pop flies — but the quote hints at the larger issue that I object to.)
How about pushups too? Say hey, Willie Mays Hayes.
Real fair to a guy that makes minimum. Is that legal w MLBPA?
This could be great advice or terrible advice - and frankly, at this point, I think the evidence, while mixed, indicates it would be a big mistake…
Let’s compare Reyes’ G/F Ratios and his batting averages over 3 seasons:
2003 - 1.58 - .307
2004 - 1.10 - .255
2005 - 1.36 - .273
Well, certainly looks like a pattern there - the more ground balls, the higher the average.
But I have three major concerns about this:
1) A high G/F ratio is not typically a good stat for a hitter. As Wes points out, ground balls are almost always negative for a hitter - even a guy like Ichiro. In fact G/F and K/9 are arguably the two most important secondary stats for a pitcher - look at Chris Carpenter’s stats - he either struck you out or got you to hit it on the ground.
2) Jose had 24 doubles, 17 triples and 7 home runs last year. That’s a .386 slugging percentage which should go up with time. Derek Jeter’s slugging percentage in his second season was only 19 points higher, and all of that was due to his batting average (18 points higher) not his power stats. You really want to turn Reyes into Luis Castillo?
3) Before you start messing around with the hitting style of your number two position prospect, you’d better be sure - absolutely, stone cold sure, that you’re not taking one stat out of context. For example, let’s compare Reyes’ strikeout percentage and average:
2003 - .13 - .307
2004 - .14 - .255
2005 - .11 - .273
Well, obviously the evidence is very thin - but you could look at that and conclude that the less he strikes out, the higher his average (true for any hitter just because a ball that’s put in play can find a hole). So should we turn Jose into a Luis Castillo type who just wrist snaps and never gets extra base hits? I think that would be a disaster.
Honestly, you want to see the stat that really matters to me - how about patience at the plate - Reyes’ walk percentages compared to his averages.
2003 - 4.0 - .307
2004 - 2.7 - .255
2005 - 3.9 - .273
Now that is showing something… he swung at everything in his second season and his average dropped. Last season, he struggled in the first half before he learned to be patient, and his average came back up. Sure his OBP is still low but:
- He is clearly becoming more selective. And…
- Even if his OBP is lower than we’d like, the more walks he takes, the more hits he gets - simply because he’s swinging at better pitches. That’s a secondary advantage that we don’t often think about.
Honestly, based on the evidence, I’d say instead of teaching Jose to pound the ball into the ground, we should work on the basics. Keep cutting down on strikeouts by not swinging at breaking balls in the dirt. Keep being selective at the plate. And hit line drives to all fields.
Truer words were never spoken, Walt.
He needs to get on any way he can - look who’s coming up behind him!
put me down in the walt camp. I think the Mets internal strategy of making an Ichiro out of two non-Ichiros (Reyes + Matsui) has failed and it’s time to move on. W. Reyes, I think his OBP would go up if he stopped wasting pitches trying to execute the Ichiro-slap or the running bunt or any of the other tricks the bench staff keeps harping on. Let the guy hit, work on his pitch judgement, leave him be!
I agree that j-rey has got some work to do to become a true lead-off hitter. But lets remember…the kid is 23 and other teams would be salivating to groom this kid in their organization. We got a superman in 23 year old D-Wright, but not everybody could be that perfect. Personally, i count my blessings that we still have Reyes for our Beloved New Look Mets.
The comparisons to Luis Castillo and a would-be slap hitter Reyes are not fair: Castillo does not have the overwhelming speed that Reyes has (and please, don’t misunderstand me> I’m saying Reyes is considerably faster, not that Castillo cannot run). Because of the discrepancy in speed and stolen base ability, Reyes hitting nothing but singles just isn’t true> it would be Reyes hitting singles, then making them doubles two pitches later.
If Reyes didn’t have the pressure of being a leadoff hitter and OBP on his back I think most Met fans would view him as the best shortstop in Met history.
That’s not saying much with the likes of Santana, Elster, Ordonez, etc, but still.
I think the comparisons to Castillo are valid. Reyes has a bit more power (both in the gaps and over the fence) but the one thing that separates the two is that Castillo has a great batting eye. As for the speed, Castillo was about as fast as Reyes 6 years ago but not now.
Overall my opinion of Reyes is that he’s a bit overrated. A great young player, no doubt, but not quite a potential superstar, simply because at no point in his career has he ever shown an ability to get on base. Remember Alfonso Soriano? Everyone seemed to think he would learn to take a walk, but it never happened. I’d bet money that the same will be true for Reyes.
no doubt reyes is overrated. but then again, this is new york. they overrate everyone here.
when overrated players, such as wigginton leave the Mets, they have trouble remaining
in the big leagues in other cities. that goes to show the influence of the ny media and all
the hype.
reyes should be practicing bunting 3 hours a day 6 days a week. he should be in the batting
cage, trying to recognize pitches in and out of the strikezone, and not swing at garbage.
i’m not sure reyes has the smarts. everybody in baseball will be looking for improvement in
reyes this coming year. i think a MINIMUM of .335 OBP should be in order for reyes next year
in the leadoff position. anything less then that, will be a dissappointment. it would show his
limited potential for the future.
I will be far more upset in the next couple years in managements ‘inability’ to bat Reyes were it’s best for the team rather than in Reyes’ poor progression. Truth is, there are a ton of ‘tools’ guys that don’t turn into all star major leaguers despite hard work, coaching, etc. Reyes will be whoever he’s going to be.(and hoping he works as hard as he can to achieve his ceiling is all you can ask for) I just hope Willie learns quickly that if he can’t take a step up in OBP this year he needs to drop to the bottom of the lineup. I don’t care if he’s capable of stealing 80 bases. If he can’t get on at a .330+ clip, he’s hurting the team getting more ABs than anyone else. And this is a team that’s ready to compete, not take a ’step forward’ towards 85+ wins…
I completely agree with your point Ian, however, every time I say that to one of my Reyes-loving friends, they go, “So who on the team do YOU want batting leadoff?” and I go, “Uh…”
I wouldnt know who to bat leadoff if reyes wasnt. And if you bat reyes down in the 8 hole, I just dont see how thats gonna help him develop, he’ll never get anything good to hit.
I just think we have to be patient with him……I honestly believe the OBP will improve this year and get better throughout his career.
Who Am I:
Jose Reyes began the 2005 season at 21 years and 10 months old, with 122 previous games of ML experience, and pt up the following numbers while playing SS every day and leading off:
Jose: 674 AB . 99 R . 185 H . 23 2B . 17 3B . 7 HR . 56 RBI . 27 BB . 77 K .
59-14 SB-CS . .274 / .303 / .390
Player X began the 2001 season at 22 years and 5 months old, with 14
previous games of ML experience, and pt up the following numbers while playing SS every day and leading off:
Jimmy: 656 AB . 97 R . 180 H . 29 2B . 12 3B . 14 HR . 54 RBI . 48 BB . 108 K . 46-8 SB-CS . .274 / .323 / .419
Jose showed a little more speed (+5 3B, +13 SB), while Player X showed
more patience (+21 BB, +31 K) and power (+6 2B, +7 HR). Overall,
pretty similar performances. Player X followed up his Age 22 season
with this:
Age avg .obp .slg .OPS BB HR
23 .245 .306 .380 .686 54 11
24 .263 .320 .387 .707 54 8
25 .289 .348 .455 .803 57 14
26 .287 .332 .430 .762 42 12
His walks stayed about the same, his power production stayed about the
same, and he eventually hit for a higher average. The overall trend
has been improvement, but it’s taken several years to come
not-that-far.
I guess this should serve as a cautionary example to those who think
Reyes will improve dramatically in a couple of seasons. I’m sure
we’ll be glad to have his legs and arm, but as for his bat, nothing
should be assumed simply because of his age and athleticism.
Can anyone name player X?
Dammit, I put “Jimmy” next to his stat line. I wish I could take posts back on this site… It’s Rollins.
HA! argon I was reading yr post and saw Jimmy and thought gee this isn’t too hard….
Clearly, Reyes should be batting fifth. Wright can run, get him up there in the leadoff spot.
(Actually, I’m half serious about this. Reyes shouldn’t be leading off. Check out these splits:
Overall: .273/.300/.386
When leading off an inning: .253/.285/.373 (clearly worse)
Close and Late: .292/.343/.396 (clearly clutch)
Runners in scoring position: .274/.295/.403 (the low obp includes rbi groundouts, etc.)
58 rbi! He’s a monster. I’m tellin ya. He only had 210 ab with runners on base.)
Maybe someone here can explain how this happens:
From Roto.
Shouldn’t he be giving money back?
Bunny -
Guzman hit .226 and .247 his first 2 seasons with 9 and 28 SB’s respectively (28 being his career high) in 400+ and 600+ AB’s - I’m not sure about your definition but wouldn’t call that electric
and I think you overvalue Furcal or undervalue Reyes if you thik Reyes can’t surpass Raffy offensively anytime soon
yeah, i saw the zambrano news. I think he’s also gonna be gone pitching for VNZ during spring training. With Zambrano not in camp any chance that tilts spot 5 towards Heilman? Please say yes. It’s what I want to hear.
Mark, I think it depends. If VZ gets shelled by all the big boys in the DR and PR teams, AND someone else in ST pitches like under 1 era, then maybe there’s a shot. But giving him a raise to 3mil doesn’t bode well for those who want his rotation spot.
F VZ. Jose is the mang. He has only played one real season. He has more experience than that, but only one real season of playing. Also, I don’t think he’s a money guy, but is this his last season before arbitration eligibility?
Jose is not overrated. His numbers were still decent last year even though he was barely on base. And he was practically a rookie!! A 21 year old rookie at that. Most guys don’t even get Major league experience until 26ish. He’s going to mature. I think he’s going to surprise a lot of you this year with his growth. I’m not predicting a master for this year, like ichiro, but his OBP will surely go up. We just have to hope he stays healthy.
Who else would hit leadoff? Matsui? Woodward? Nady/Diaz? All fairly ridiculous ideas, except matsui if he’s playing well. Come on, it wouldn’t be so bad if he was hitting .285 and playing good defense. Maybe those are big if’s but … I guess AHern would be a decent option, but he’s got 1 ML hit in his career (I saw it!!), so I’d rather take my chances with Jose’s electric speed and attitude.
After Bobby V. got fired and was doing Baseball Tonight, he was talking about Jose Reyes and said, (I think this is a direct quote): “This young man is going to be a special player as long as they don’t try to make him hit ground balls”
I liked how, according to just about every single broadcast of Mets Baseball last season, Jose “Deez Nuts” Reyes was deemed “simply a joy” to watch. I swear that at least one commentator wanted to propose to the guy by the end of the season. I for one refuse to propose to anyone who doesn’t have an OBP above 300.
Andrew would you have done the deal last offseason reyes for soriano
That is a very well-timed quote in the discussion. i think we should just let him be himself, but teach him to lay off that damn curve in the dirt when he’s batting lefty.
to change the subject manny acta is going to coach the dominican team. I thin maybe we should pay close attention to that becasue if he does a good job(all be it an all star team hes coaching)then if to the joy of fire willie randolph gets fired then maybe we could add him to the list of coach hopefulls(my opinion still remians give Willy another chance)
In one of his Abstracts Bill James wrote a column about batting orders. He did a statistical study that showed that batting orders have surprisingly little impact on runs scored. He did simulations and constructed the worst possible lineup– Babe Ruth hitting #9, Sandy Koufax batting leadoff, etc. Anyway, the “worst” lineup didn’t score that many fewer runs than the “ideal” lineup. His theory was that given a lineup of nine hitters, you can’t push everyone down in the lineup. Everyone gets their hacks eventually and over the course of a season a leadoff hitter doesn’t get THAT many more plate appearances than, say, the number three or number five hitter. You can make up for bad leadoff hitters if your bottom of the order is effective.
Of course James did not suggest that differences in lineups had NO effect, but that the effect is a lot less than you might think.
Bobby V. had his failings, but he’s always had a GREAT baseball mind. I’m inclined to trust his opinion on this. (Especially seeing as how it mirrors my own…)
How many games do you think we’re going to win of lose the East by this year? That small difference will likely have an impact.
by “of” I meant “or”
I just want to correct one thing in your excellent article. Groundballs aren’t negative events in terms of absolute runs. They’re only negative when compared to the average plate appearance. A team that hits a groundball every time up will obviously score runs, but less than the average major league team in 2002-2004.
If Ichiro were to hit a groundball every time up, he would contribute just about an average number of runs to the offense. I can only hope Reyes reaches that level in general someday.