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January 17, 2006
The Arc of Cornelius Clifford Floyd
In recent years two left-handed sluggers have come to us with great expectations, only to see their seasons with the New York Mets sidelined by injury or diminished performance. Mo Vaughn had missed a season prior to his being traded to New York, and went on to hit a subpar .259/.349/.456 with 26 home runs in his first season before imploding in 2003 and playing in just 27 games, putting up a .190/.323/.329 line. We were hoping for more of the 1995-2000 performance with Boston and Anaheim, where he averaged 38 home runs per season and won an MVP award. Adding insult to injury, we owe Vaughn $12.5 million from 2006-08. Cliff Floyd came to the Mets following two good (but not great) seasons - the latest including 28 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 146 games between Florida, Montreal and Boston. Prior to that he’d merely shown the same potential without busting out. His best was a 31-homer, 18-steal season in 2001 with the Marlins, but he’d also put up 22/27 and 22/24 in 1998 and an injury-plagued 2000. After losing 45, 101 and 93 games to injury in 1996, 97 and 99, respectively, it was hoped that a change of scenery - and a ballpark benefitting left-handed hitters - would change Cliff’s fortunes. It didn’t go so well. Floyd missed 54 games and had just 419 plate appearances in 2003, his first season in the Big Apple, belting 18 home runs and driving in 68 runners with a .290/.376/.518 line. Whereas the production was there, the health wasn’t. And on a team that had to say goodbye to Mike Piazza to injury, and which traded away Jeromy Burnitz at peak value in July, Floyd really needed to step up, stay healthy and lead the team with his promised 30-homer potential. It wasn’t to be. 2004 wasn’t too much better, either. He played in five more games and had 35 more plate appearances in total, but his line of .260/.352/.462 figured a drop of 26 points in his isolated power, and resulted in very similar numbers to the previous season - just 18 home runs and 63 RBI. Over this two-year period he stole just 14 bases. During the 2004 season he openly criticised teammates by declaring that there was “no light at the end of the tunnel” due to the team’s dismal play. He may have been correct, but the comment still resulted in calls for his trade. After two seasons of poor play hampered by injury, Floyd wasn’t the return on our investment that we asked for, and to boot, he was throwing in the towel! To his credit, however, Cliff came back in a major way last season. In only his second 150-game campaign (his first came in 1998 when he played in 153), Floyd had 624 plate appearances and belted a career-high 34 home runs while also stealing 12 bases. He led the team in the first category while ranking sixth in the latter - just a half-dozen away from ranking second but quite a few away from amassing as many as Jose Reyes (60). He also drove in 98 runs, almost becoming the second Met of the season (after David Wright’s 102) to reach 100 RBI - a milestone the Mets hadn’t achieved since Piazza drove in 113 in the pennant-winning 2000 season. In the field, Floyd had just his third above-average season as a left-fielder, rating a 110 in Baseball Prospectus’ Rate2 stat, or 10% above average, and saving 14 runs over the average LF and 24 over a replacement player, both his best numbers ever. In short, Floyd stood up and, with Wright, led a team that was once again middle-of-the-pack in terms of offense. Without Floyd’s contributions, however, they’d have been searching for help. With Mike Piazza again injury-prone (113 games) and marquee signing Carlos Beltran struggling (.266/.330/.414), Floyd was able to put his past troubles in New York behind him and make himself a fan favourite all while carrying the team. His 46.3 VORP ranked behind only Wright (66.1), and he was more valuable per at-bat and per game (.312 VORPr, .178 MLVr) than all except Wright and Mike Jacobs among players with 100 or more PAs. But, if 2005 was a personal best offensive season for Floyd, what should we expect in 2006? The truth is that we don’t need to expect as much. If Floyd were to hit 20 home runs, steal 15 bases and hit .265/.355/.450 all season, then the decline in his performance from 2005 to 2006 would easily be offset by the addition of Carlos Delgado and the improvement at first base. So, if the baseline is that .265/.355/.450 line with 20 and 15, then I think we’ve got somewhat tempered and realistic expectations of Floyd’s output. He shouldn’t decline any more than that, but I don’t think he’ll put up too much more than that, either. The outfield of Floyd, Beltran and Nady/Diaz will likely be outhit by an infield that includes Delgado and Wright, no matter how Reyes performs or who we put at second base. The important thing, once again, is that Floyd stays healthy and Beltran improves and then at least holds steady throughout the year. Why should we expect a decline from 34 down to 20 home runs, though? Over the past eight seasons Floyd has whacked 22, 11*, 22*, 31, 28, 18*, 18* and 34 four-baggers at the following rates (* means 121 games played or less): Year AB/HR Gms 1998 26.73 153 1999 22.82 69 2000 19.09 121 2001 17.90 149 2002 18.57 146 2003 20.28 108 2004 22.00 113 2005 16.18 150 When looking at a player such as Floyd, who is often sidelined by injury, it’s best to look at the rate at which he does something rather than just at an unquantified counting stat such as total home runs. His best seasons, judging by Baseball Prospectus’ WARP3 stat (an adjusted Wins Above Replacement Player) were 2001 (9.2 WARP3) and, prior to 2005 (8.0), 2002 (4.9). Taking rate statistics into account over counting statistics, we can see that 2000 (4.8) and 2003 (4.5), both seasons during which Floyd missed significant playing time, were right on-par with 2002, in which he played 146 games. Therefore the best way to look at Floyd’s performance - and the home run rate of a left-handed left fielder is obviously an important aspect of his game - is via the rate at which he does something. The above numbers show nicely the arc of Cliff’s career, but this gradual improvement/decline is best represented in a graph.  As you can see, Floyd’s performance improved each season from 1998 through 2001, including large improvements in 1999 and 2000, before levelling off prior to a 10% decline in each of 2003 and 2004. In fact, the improvements and declines were very steady: Year +/- % 1999 +14.6 2000 +16.3 2001 +6.2 2002 -3.6 2003 -8.4 2004 -7.8 2005 +26.5 You’d think that 2005 was a bit of a spike, wouldn’t you? Judging by his rate stats, even when healthy his performance wasn’t that bad in his injury-plagued New York seasons, so a 26.5% jump in his home run rate in a healthy season is still something to take with a grain of salt. The graph above shows basically what is expected of a major-league baseball player, wherein there is an improvement each season until one reaches his peak, and then a decline each season until one is no longer playing. In terms of his AB/HR rate, Floyd was taking as literal an approach toward this “bell curve” theory as one possibly can. Until last season, that is. So there are now (at least) three ways to attempt to judge Floyd’s 2006 from a prospective standpoint.
2. We could include 2005 and take the decline from this new point, or in other words forget that he’d declined to 22 AB/HR and take a gradual decline (again 10%) from the new setpoint of 16.18 AB/HR. This would give us approximately 17.8 AB/HR, or 31 home runs in 550 AB. This would obviously be the least accurate of approximations but the most desirable of outcomes. 3. We could figure that 2005 was a spike year and therefore take the gradual decline from the 2004 numbers, which would give us 24.2 AB/HR and 23 home runs in 550 at-bats. This is very similar to the first method, however we haven’t completely ignored the previous season. I think it should be clear to anyone that Floyd’s 2005 was a spike year in almost every way, offensively. His home run numbers were not out of line with his career despite being a personal best, but they were out of line with the way that his career was descending. Floyd’s gradual improvement followed by his gradual decline lends credence to this, and it’s more likely that he will fall back into this gradual decline from his 2003 and 2004 numbers than either gradually declining from or, even less likely, holding steady with his 2005 numbers. But, even if he does continue his decline and fall back to his 1998 home run rate of “just” 26.73 AB/HR, his decline will again be offset by the addition of Carlos Delgado and an expected improvement from Carlos Beltran. It’s that accounting for decline with improvement elsewhere that makes the 2006 Mets better than the 2005 team; it’s the expectation that the improvement from several positions will more than offset and possibly eclipse the decline from others that makes them a credible contender. 97 Responses to “The Arc of Cornelius Clifford Floyd”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. Who Am I? »» |
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Cliff had one of the best all-around performances ever for a Met outfielder. If ya’ll check out the Top Plays at Mets.com, you’ll see one could make the argument he was more deserving of a GG than Bobby Abreu.
Considering this is Floyd’s contract year, and he was considering retirement post-2006, we shouldn’t really expect a similar performance, but it’s certainly plausible.
I think that Cliff serves as great protection for whoever hits in front of him whether it be Delgado or Wright because of the fact that he can crush the baseball. Some of the shots i saw last year (which quite a few of came in clutch situations) were phenomenal. Especially with Wright ahead of him, pitcher will be cautious because of his raw power which from what i saw last year is equal to if not better than Delgado’s. Floyd is also a streaky hitter which could be a good thing because everyone else in our lineup is pretty level except for Reyes. If everyone is hitting the ball like they should and Cliff Floyd is on one of his tears, watch out.
If Willie would trust David Wright as a cleanup guy our lineup would be much better. Reyes Beltran Delgado Wright Floyd Lo Duca Nady and 2b has to be the most balances lineup propostion ive seen. However I doubt we will see this any time in the first half of the season
The best lineup of balance for the mets would be this one here:
Reyes
Lo Duca
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Floyd
Diaz
Matsui
that would give the best balance of breaking up the 2 lefties and having speed and another guy who can take pitches for Reyes to steal.
Surrounded by a stronger supporting cast and no longer counted on to be Willie Randolph’s main power threat, I see no reason why, despite the aforementioned “Arc of Floyd” that Cliff cannot hit homeruns at a similar rate if not slightly inferior to 2005. I’m more than willing to grant the probability that his home run rate will see a decline to numbers more representative of his career rate. However, last year was his first truly healthy season in New York. Perhaps the spike in power can be attributed to this newfound health and a bit of an evolution in his swing/approach at the plate. Whereas Floyd used to be more of a threat to hit .300 or better, his main strength is becoming his ability to hit home runs. So, assuming another healthy year ( a somewhat risky assumption) Id expect to see Cliff right around 30 homers again, albeit while carrying that .265 average that you predicted (maybe a notch higher)
Nice article, but it doesn’t take into account the book Alomar Sr gave him to read that got him moving in the right direction. After reading it, he can go for another similar year no problemo.
Mets86, why would you have Beltran (franchise player) batting 3rd again, when he already indicated he felt most comfortable batting 2nd? And, why would you give Lo Duca more “ab’s” by having him batting 2nd?
Here’s my Met batting lineup -
Reyes
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Floyd
Diaz
Lo Duca
Matsui/Ahern
2 speedsters at the top, 4 power guys in the middle, Lo Duca & the 2B.
Super T
I like Super T’s lineup as well, although I’m somewhat undecided as to the oredr in which we hit wright and delgado. At this stage I’d lean toward delgado third, but ultimately wrights your number three hitter, while delgado is your prototypical cleanup guy. I know that leaves us susceptible to a LOOGY attack, another reason why for know Ill agree with Super T. I think theres no question that Beltran belongs in the 2 hole and Lo Duca down in the bottom third. While LoDuca is a fine contact hitter, he has zero speed and doesn’t get on base at a particularly high rate. Let Beltran hit there, with more on base potential and great speed. That will slot LoDuca in a spot where he has a chance to hit with men in scoring position, something he has proven to be adept at. I would, however, like to see Nady given a shot to succeed now over diaz in right field. I think Diaz can have an impact now, but some more time in triple A may do him good. If Nady flounders, then make the move.
Super T, I know you love Willie, so I’ll break this to you gently. Willie has said many times already that Beltran will be his #3 hitter, that that is how he envisions him and he will continue to use him in that way unless the Mets got a Manny type hitter (yes this was well after Delgado came). You are likely to see Loduca in the 2 hole, as he indicated that to be likely as well. So although you don’t like 86’s lineup, and many of us could argue it, Willie has more or less committed to it, other thatn a no comment so far on Floyd and Wright yet (they may flip). Hey if he didn’t get the guy the hell out of the 3 hole last year, when he was bunting, what makes you think his stubborn ass will do so now? Haha, you disagree w Willie, your world seem cold now or what?
*sigh* I was soo happy and excited about the Mets just now and then I had to read this. What makes me soo sad to read this, is the fact that he IS gonna do this :(
nice article Damien.
The funny thing about Floyd is that he’s only 33 years old. Seems like he’s older especially with his talking about retirement at one point but there is no reason Cliff shouldn’t have a couple of prime power hitter years left in him - well no reason except for his health. So if he’s doing his yoga or whatever it was that kept him on the field this past year I expect him to put up similar numbers as 2005
“that would give the best balance of breaking up the 2 lefties and having speed and another guy who can take pitches (LoDuca) for Reyes to steal.”
Eh, have you ever seen a LoDuca at bat? The guy swings at everything. He also makes contact with everything, albeit with mediocre control and no power. Regardless, he ain’t taking no pitches for Reyes to steal.
No he hasn’t. 2005, yes. 2006, no.
God piece Damien. My only issue with it is the notion of dismissing 2005 as just some sort of aberration. Using that same logic, I think we can dismiss his “decline” for 2004 as well. Cliff played very hurt with a sore Achilles for the last couple of months of that season, until the Mets fell out of contention. You can easily point to the sore Achilles as to a contributing factor to his power decline in ‘04. Now do I think Floyd will hit HRs at the same rate this upcoming season as in ‘05? Realistically no, but I would not be surprised if it was somewhere close to that. Perhaps he is just a better and more seasoned power hitter now. I think 25 HRs or so is a reasonable expectation given above average health (I know that is a big given).
Of course, no one would be surprised if Floyd had another one of his 90 game seasons. (More reason the Diaz/Nady platoon in right may not be so bad after all, and then Wright would have to be the #3 hitter without Floyd in the lineup, I mean he would HAVE to be, right?)
I think Floyd’s defining quality is the streakiness. Besides health, it seems to me the difference from one year to the next reads more like a statement on his peaks and valleys. While ‘05 was a great year overall for Cliff—I think he was pretty near the mendoza line for all of may if i remember correctly. That was after tearing it up in April. And resuming in June with that amazing game vs. the Angels. Then another month long slump into the summer, etc.
I like Floyd where he’s at now in the line up, in the 6 spot. I don’t think a line up can sustain itself with a wildly steaky 3/4 or 5 hitter. As for his total #s in ‘06 I think it really comes down to how hot the hot streaks get.
two words:
walk year
floyd is a huge piece of the puzzle next year. him staying healthy will be key.
the 20 game hitting streak last year made floyds season. an incredible one at that.
super T’s lineup is the only lineup that makes sense next year. anything else
is by far an inferior lineup.
randolph should be FIRED if he bats beltran 3ed again this coming year.
also, LoDuca doesn’t have the speed to bat 2nd in the lineup.
the Mets should have enough talent next year to overcome randolphs low baseball IQ.
if the Mets are not leading the division by the all-star break, and if beltran is still batting third,
they should not only FIRE randolph, but also give him a lifetime ban from ever managing another
major league baseball game.
i truly believe that randolph actually hurts the Mets more then helps them. i think a 10 year old kid,
who knows statistics could manage the Mets better then randolph.
What really struck me about Cliff Floyd’s 2005 was how many fans kept referring (and still keep referring to it) as a “career year”.
Cliff for his career has hit: .281/.361/.494
in 2005 he hit: .273/.358/.505
in 2005 Cliff was healthier than usual: 150 games and 550 at bats- he was better on a per at bat basis in 2003: .290/.376/.518 but only played 108 games.
He hit .317/.390/.578 with 123 runs scored in 2001- that was his “career year”
Anyway- given Floyd’s age and injury history- I think Floyd’s performance with the Mets so far is almost exactly what should have been expected. I have no problems with Floyd or his signing at this point.
Mo Vaughn- I think we got better than what could reasonably have been anticipated- what could reasonably have been anticipated was his actual 2002 season .259/.349/.456 26-72- folowed by declining production from there to the end of his contract. Making him the most overpaid player in baseball at a budget busting 17mm per. Instead he got hurt, didn’t play, and the Mets were able to have insurance pay 3/4 of his salary.
The Vaughn move was just a horrifically bad move which was actuall made “less” bad by his injury.
(Makes you wonder- we were willing to pay 17mm per to an out of shape 34 year old Mo Vaughn- coming off a completely lost season- and we weren’t willing to pay nearly as much for a 28 year old Vlad- who while having an injury riddled year had STILL managed to put up a .330/.426/.586 line in 112 games.)
Trade Floyd, Kris Benson, Kaz Matsui and Aaron Heilman for Manny then sign Jeff Weaver and Pedro Astacio to one year deals.
Reyes - SS - S
Beltran - CF - S
Manny - LF - R
Delgado - 1B - L
Wright - 3B - R
LoDuca - C - R
Diaz - RF - R
A. Hernandez - 2B - S
Bench: Nady, Castro, Franco, Woodward, Redman, Valentin
SP: Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Trachsel, Zambrano
RP: Wagner, Sanchez, Perisho, Astacio, Bradford, Padilla
Before we argue further about Randolph’s lineup, can we get a link to his post-Delgado re-assertion of Beltran as his third hitter?
I am in noway comparing floyd to manny but if that trade you proposed goes through, then we weaken ourselves instead of us being stronger. Offensively it would help, but by how much? How much more is manny going to give us then floyd? Going from Doug M at first to delgado was a HUGE improvement…..im just not so sure going from floyd to manny is big enough. By getting rid of heilman, you’d be losing one of our best relivers. Pedro has had toe issues, glavine is old and trach was on the DL last year…what happens if one of those pitches goes down and has to miss extended time? Who starts if u get rid of heilman and since Seo is gone already.
This whole manny thing is crazy….it would hurt more then help this team. Any benefit he would provide offensively would be cancelled out by his defense and the pitchers we would have to give up to get him.
Our offense is just fine. Its the starting pitching im concerned with. I’d rather them focus on getting quality starters then manny
re: Beltran at #3
I heard an interview with Willie on the FAN post-getting Delgado and he made some very serious references to Beltran batting third. Although he had a horrendous season last season (it was painful to watch) I think there are some good reasons to believe that Beltran will be a good #3 hitter, even if he isn’t now.
He’s a toolsy outfielder - those guys who are fast and athletic overall, tend to have a switchin their emphasis as they age. Speed gets traded for power. With experience, they become better hitters. Look at Bonds, look at any other quick and skillful outfielder. That’s just what happens.
Even in his lost season, Beltran had serious pop in his bat. I don’t know how, but every so often he would get a hold of a pitch and absolutely launch it. And he made it look effortless. There’s a lot of power in that bat, more than I think you guys here at the site realize.
That being said, I don’t like him as the #3 next season… but I think Willie sees what I see, and thinks its ready to happen tomorrow. And you know what? He might be right. Nobody has a better view of the game and of the players than the coaches do.
re: Floyd
I agree with JPWF’s ideas about Floyd. His stats last year were not really that out of line last season except for two things.
a- Games Played…. obviously.
b- Double/HR ratio
2001- 44 / 31
2002- 43 / 28
2003- 25 / 18
2004- 26 / 18
2005- 22 / 34
I think we can expect a significant decline in the number of home runs Floyd will hit next season because of both of these factors. If he plays a full season again, he’ll probably put up the same rate stats. But even so, we should expect him to hit less homers and more doubles, to be more in line with his career ratios.
Maybe he’s older and stronger, maybe he was healther, maybe he adapted his swing to hit for the fences more often… I don’t know. All I know is that last seasons proportions were unusual, and I would expect him to hit no more than 25 homers nest season.
As JRRM said, there were 2 separate FAN interviews, so if you want (I don’t) go dig in their archive at wfan.com. So to Robbase, just bc you don’t know doesn’t mean it ain’t true, maybe do some hw first.
I loved hearing the MVP chants in that stretch, winning games, and robbing HR after HR like a defensive stud, or while throwing out runners. All y’all bashing Floys best step up, the guy could only wear a cape top show you what a hero he is if you can’t see it already.
Mozart, I wonder if Super T, who spent a long time backing and defending WR and imploring us not to question him or his tactics and lineups the other day, would agree w your conclusion. Mozart, for what its worth, I agree completely, banned from ML managing would be the conclusion already the other GMs I believe have already made.
Damien - this is the thing with pure “stat-heads” that drives me batty sometimes. You guys focus so much on “stats” and “trends” and “projections” that you lose the human factor of baseball.
Quite simply put, athletes are human, they can be flat, they can be motivated, they can work out hard in the off season, they can come to spring training in the best shape of their careers, they could hate playing everyday because there is “no light at the end of the tunnel” or they could show up and give it everything because they respect their manager and their teammates.
Floyd showed up at 2005 spring training in the best shape of his career - he acknowledged it himself. His goal was to play over 150 games. You could tell by looking at him how much better shape he was in. So his “spike” was directly a result of his better conditioning.
Also, as much as people (rightfully so) bash Willie’s in game management, he knows how to work his players, keep them on the field and keep them healthy. Remember back in April - Floyd “tweaked” his ribcage and Willie sat him for 3 or 4 days - none of the Art Howe theory of playing through the pain - as a result, Floyd plays 150 games. I don’t think it is a fluke.
That being said, I doubt Floyd hits 34 HRs again, but you never know. Remember, his previous career best came hitting in Florida. I wouldn’t be suprised to see him hit 30 again, especially with less pressure on him. But, I would take a .280 avg, with 25 HRs and be very, very happy.
Factor in this as his walk year, and Floyd might suprise a lot of people.
I know that I for one wasn’t bothered at all by what Floyd said down the stretch in 2004. The guy is a winner. He’s motivated by winning. He’s not going to stay on the field and put up homers in garbage time. He’s a real gamer, a real player, and I like that alot.
He was a revelation this season. You saw it back in the day too when he was getting in people’s faces, feuding with Valentine and what have you. I love it. He’s only 33, though for stretches he’s seemed much older than that.
I think he’s got a couple real good years left in him if he doesn’t get hurt. I’m thinking along the same lines as a lot of you guys when it comes to this season…. maybe .280 20hr 90rbi .350obp
In watching Floyd a ton this past season, I’ve really come to believe that Floyd no longer even resembles the hitter he was in Florida when he put up most of those career numbers that you guys are using as a baseline. Floyd has frequently been quoted as saying that he “is not a homerun hitter” but rather a line drive gap hitter. I wouldn’t characterize him as such anymore. He is a homerun hitter now, pure and simple. His swing and approach at the plate has changed, to the point where is average will never again consistently threaten .300+, but will continue to be a threat to slug 25+ homers. That being said, don’t look for .280 20hr 90rbis 350OBP from floyd. instead look for something more like this
.270 28hr 90rbi .350 obp
I’ll take either one of those lines. I just suspect that some of those homers won’t make it out this season and they’ll be doubles instead. But hey… who knows?
I’d also like to state my agreement with sweetlew’s comment about projecting trends for players. Of course, the easy thing to do is project some kind of straight line or exponential trend for guys, but the truth is, its impossible. Even if you were to run a million simulations and just be wimpy and take the average of all of them, projections are nearly useless. There are too many variables at work.
Willie has plenty of critics, and a lot of them are justified: especially if it comes to the botched double switches from early in the season (chalk it up to inexperience) and the much maligned batting order drama. However one arena that I think Willie deserves some credit, is in the revival and dependibility of Clffy and Jose Reyes. I’m not saying that Willie provided some sort of miricle training that kept them healthy or anything like that, but I am saying that there are times when players sit out from little bang ups that don’t need to necassarily bench them. This type of behaviour does not happen under the watch of a manager who is a former player, that the players actually respect. Imagine for a second how much easier it is to tell Art Howe that you’re hurt vs. willie Randolh. randolph. While his tactics aren’t there yet, I do beleive Willie is leading theMets in a good way, and is indeed playing a huge part in changing the lockerroom culture at Shea into a winning one.
David, while I definitely respect your opinion, I don’t think you can ever sit a guy in the middle of the hit streak he was on, and Floyd didn’t want to sit either. Why let a guy cool off? By your logic, as a former player, WR should have known not sit a guy on fire. Also, I think Alomar Sr coached him w the book (I forget the name, 7 Habits of Highly Effetcive Outfielders?) his perspective of health and SELF-reliance was essential, according to Cliff. I really think you have to credit Floyd for his work ethic in returning healthy and effective.
as far as the lineups go i would rather hit wright 2nd than loduca. I think that we can put beltran at 2nd and have delgado third so here is my lineup
reyes
beltran
delgado
floyd
wright(for the first month until we have to move him to cleanup)
loduca
diaz
ahern/whoever
Absolutely, don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking anything away from Flloyd’s credit for his renewed vigor this season. But there are certain intangibles a manager can bring to a team, and i think this was one that willie brought. Your points about the hitting streak are totally understood, but what about all those monthes after the streak ended during the season and Cliffy stayed healthy? And about your Alomar point, I’m not saying just a former player, i said a foremr player who the current roster respects. Not to take anything away from Sandy, but he’s a bench coach and not exactly the same stature in NYC as a player (hence as respected by the roster) as Willie.
Wright will not be our cleanup hitter. He is the ideal number 3 hitter, but Willie will not allow him there. The one Mets86 proposed will be the opening day lineup, it was pretty much set in stone the few days after we got Lo Duca, when Omar said he sees Lo Duca as his 2 hitter. Right there was your first hint that it was gonna happen that way.
Why would the mets put that kind of pressure on Wright to bat cleanup when they brought in Delgado to do it, since he has done it for many years. Just let the lineup be for a few games and if it does not work, it will change.
Ideally, I don’t think LoDuca should hit second in the lineup, but I agree with Rich, let’s see how this lineup works out before we pass judgement. I think the problem is that with Willie having stuck with Beltran in the 3-hole all of last year, we are all afraid that if this lineup sputters, Willie has shown very little history of being flexible with it.
I don’t think you can have Delgado and Floyd hitting back to back no matter what the lineup looks like. The 2-3-4-5 has to go Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Floyd.
That is why Mets86 lineup is going to be the one Willie will pick because he loves Beltran in the 3 and then that will be followed with Delgado Wright Floyd. It is pretty sad when all the fans realize this but our manager wont.
I think that we should defiantly NOT bat Beltran in the 3 hole. David is our best hitter and should fill that shop. Beltrans numbers in KC and Houston where he batter 2nd were clearly better then last years sub-par numbers. Whether that is because of injuries or too much pressure I don’t care. I think that he would preform much better in the 2 hole. I don’t buy into the lefty after lefty thingy. Thus my lineup wold be something like this:
1- Reyes - S
2- Beltran- S
3- Wright- R (if you want to start him at 5 until the may that is fine too)
4- Delgado- L
5- Floyd- L
6- Diaz- R
7- LoDuca- R
8- Herdandez- S
9- Pitcher
This lineup provides speed at the front (Reyes, Beltran) power in the middle and contact at the end.
LETS GO METS
I agree that Beltran should bat 2nd, but only if followed by Wright.
Reyes, Beltran, Delgado is a huge mistake to open our lineup. If Reyes and Beltran slump at all in OBP (like practically all of 2005, esp Jose), Delgado’s bat would go to waste. David Wright needs to be in front of Delgado, imagine the number of times Reyes and Beltran go down on a combined 5 pitches. D Wright draws a 8 pitch walk and Delgado blasts the first pitch he sees for a 2-run homer. All those 2-run homers vs. 1-run homers will mean a lot more W’s!!!
Beltran has statistically done a bit better from the 2 hole and has a higher OPS of 100 from the 2 hole, but if those stats include his postseason run with Houston, they could be a bit inflated.
Career Games in 3 Hole 542, career games in #2 hole 222.
Listen I agree he should bat 2nd too, but I feel like people are trying to build a misconception that Willie took this guy that batted 2nd his entire career and forced him into the 3 hole…THAT IS NOT TRUE.
I’ve made this argument many times but here it goes again.
Given normal circumstances, I would have no problem with having Delgado and Floyd bat back to back. They handle lefties well enough that it wouldnt hurt us to have them back to back but I think we fail to play to one of our greatest strenghths, David Wright. David Wright becomes a huge roadblock to the plans of the opposing teams manager in late inning situations when he is sandwiched in between Delgado and Floyd. Now, Managers are going to think twice about leaving a loogy in the game to face wright after having that loogy pitch to Delgado. David Wright destroys lh pitching like few other players I’ve ever seen. He’s great against rh but is in a small class against lefties. my line up would look like this
1. Reyes
2. Beltran
3. Delgado
4. Wright
5. Floyd
6. Loduca/Nady
7. Loduca/Diaz
8. Matsui/Hernandez/Boone
I worry about Diaz’s strikeouts and would rather have him in the 7th hole if he is in rightfield. Loduca could be really key in the 6th hole if willie calls alot of hit and runs with floyd and wright on base.
thanx for convincing me about putting wright third i realize it makes more sense now.
i think beltran has got to bat second. if we put loduca there he will just slow the lineup down.with reyes,beltran,wright most likely one of them is certain to get on and if more than 1 is on bade a double could score them or a single if there on2nd and 3rd. Then if floyd plays anything like last year he would definetly pick up whatever delgado left and than loduca and diaz are a pretty solid bottom of the order.if willie can figure this out than wow im excited how many days till pitchers and catchers report
I agree that having Delgado/Floyd back to back does create some LOOGY problems in late innings. But that’s only one inning (albeit it would be late inthe game), but what about the first 6-7 innings????
Are we supposed to sacrifice what could be the most productive lineup the entire first 6-7 innings just so we be safe from LOOGY’s in the 7th/8th? That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I honestly think this team could fall apart if Reyes/Beltran struggle at the top of the lineup, and it would make Delgado’s bat not as big of an addition as we all thought. I just think it’s silly to have our best OBP guy (Wright) batting BEHIND our most potent bat.
I’m surprised more ppl aren’t even considering the option of batting Floyd 6th behind say Diaz batting 5th to fix the Delgado/Floyd LOOGY problem.
for all of us mets fans heres a great deal for all thats involved.the deal will be a three-way deal with the mets,phillies,and red sox. the mets get ramirez, the red sox get matusi,benson,abreau,and zambrano ,and the phillies get diaz/nady, clement, and minor leaguer from red sox.and the mets line-up will then look like this: 1st-reyes 2nd-beltran 3rd-ramirez 4th-delgado 5th-wright 6th-floyd 7th-nady/diaz (which ever one isn’t traded} 8th-loduca.this would be a great deal for all three and a great line-up for the mets. and our five starters would be 1-martinez 2-glavine 3-heilman 4-tracsel 5-bannister/soler
Z, when you woke up were your sheets all wet?
I guess nady or diaz are playing 2nd?
this deal makes no sense.Now were just giving up pitching for manny so we will have an unstablerotation and im sure that the phillies would love nothing more than an outfield prospect and an unstable pitcher for there best player. just give up on manny zebeque we are better without him(for what wewould have to give up
i think z might be alittle “Broke Back Mountain” over manny ramirez
Hear, hear.
Stack the lefties back to back. It’ll be fine. Once in a while it’ll cause a slight problem late in some games… and it’ll give us a chance to sit delgado or Floyd early, and simply use Franco, and either Nady or Diaz (whoever was sitting that day), or Franco.
How many times do you honestly expect that we’ll lose a game b/c Franco and not Delgado had the AB? Or Nady (LH hitter extraordinaire) and not Floyd?
i see alot of mets fans see diaz as a better option than nady, but what everyone is forgetting is although diaz had a pretty good year he strikes out a awful lot and he sure looked as if he couldn’t catch up with a good fastball all year.i really hopes that randolph gives nady a shot at starting. i really believe that nady has alot of pop in his bat, and he’s a better power and contact hitter than diaz.i really believe that nady is a 20 plus hr guy or maybe 30 if he plays a full season
Wait a second there are 2 people that use the same name of Zebuque???? You first propose the trade then bash your trade, please let me know why 2 people would even use this name to begin with?
The guy prob realizes how foolish his comments are and tries to play it both ways Rich.
bottom line is wright should bat 3ed or 4th, preferrably 3ed.
beltran batting 2nd is a no brainer.
2 facts about randolph. he lovessss beltan batting 3ed, and he also likes a balanced
lineup of lefty, right, lefty. he seems to be obsessed with it even if the numbers don’t
call for it.
the reason i hate wright hitting 5th, is that many games during the year, he doesn’t get
to bat until the second inning. also, several games during the year, he will not get a final
turn atbat and Mets will lose in a one run game.
it could be worse i guess. randolph could still have wright hitting 7th in the order, and not
get an atbat until the 3ed inning. i’ll never in my life figure that one out. randolph should
have been fired last year for something as idiotic as that. that was a disgrace to Mets fans.
You are 100% correct my friend. Besides, if you check the stats, you will find that both Delgado and Floyd have over an .800 OPS v. LHP. So neither will be particularly “neutralized” by a LOOGY.
The fear of the LOOGY is no reason to move your best all around hitter (Wright) out of the #3 spot. And, for all of Willie’s misgivings, I believe that by mid-May, we will see Beltran in the #2 and Wright in #3. (Or else Willie will be looking for a job NLT October)
Dude Mozart, its 3RD not 3ed, You can make that mistake once but throughout the entire post, cmon.
ok rich, you have a point……….3RD
i stand corrected..
I feel the need to second FW on this one. Z, give me a break man.
Mozart, sorry if I sounded like a dick, so I apologize if it seemed that way, it just bugged me that you did it throughout your post.
I’m not sure that those 800+ OPS numbers against lefthanders are necessarily accurate, fellas.
The majority of a player’s at-bats against pitchers of either hand will come versus starts, against whom there are much less significant splits usually.
The lefties that Delgado and Floyd will face at the end of games will be killer LOOGY’s… who usually have established and drastic splits, and probably would reduce Delgado and Floyd to below 800 OPS.
I used to think it wasn’t a big deal to bat them back to back, but if Chris in GA is right about Wright crushing lefthanders, I think we have no choice. I wouldn’t want to put the burden of cleanup on Wright either, nor would I enjoy wasting Delgado at the three-hole, but I think the LOOGY problem is larger than we would think from looking at career splits.
I hate to say it, but through the lens of Delgado-Wright-Floyd… it might even be wise to bat someone else second other than Beltran. Sure, it would push them back to 4-5-6, but I think the whole issue of losing a game while so-and-so is on deck is truly overstated.
I don’t like this order for a few reasons: mainly, Delgado will clog the bases in the 3-hole.
But also, I’d love to see Wright embark on a quest for 20/20 (or better yet, 30/30 as his mentor Hojo accomplished, which I think DW could also do one of these years). But for now, let’s say 20/20 is more reasonable (especially since he nearly did just that last year: 27HR/17 SB). I think the Mets should maximize both DW’s speed and power. But where in the lineup would DW do that best? Well, let’s quickly look at Hojo’s 30/30 year in 1991: he hit cleanup in 42 games and hit in the 5-hole for 84 games (I’m not sure how many bases he stole in those lineup positions). I realize 1991 had a much different lineup, so all this is just some food for thought I wanted to throw out to you guys….
Let’s see just how much Delgado will clog up the bases…
593 plate appearances
80 singles
72 walks
17 HBP
= 169 times on first base, or 28% of the time
33 home runs
3 triples
41 doubles
= 77 times he left first base open via hit
364 times leaving first base open via out
I don’t see it being that bad of a problem. One time out of four he’ll be on first base slowing DW down. One time out of eight he’ll do something excellent. If one of you guys wants to come up with his baserunning slwts or whatever it is, that might even paint a better picture.
You’re the one with the username about Willie, not me. Just because I don’t share your delusional obsession for him to be fired, I guess you feel the need to label me. As long as the Mets as a team perform (W-L record) as they should, I could care less who the manager is. Most intelligent baseball fans are aware that the difference in managers for a team through the course of a season is only worth a few wins or losses anyway.
Tell me something I don’t already know, that’s old news. I don’t think their’s a Mets fan who agrees with every move the front office or manager makes, but just because they don’t agree with every move, doesn’t mean they stop being objective and compulsively obsess.
That ain’t healthy.
Super T
In addition, Wright hit 106 singles last season and walked 72 times, ending up on first base 185 times when you include his HBP.
Let’s say that 28% of those times on base, Delgado is on first with a silly grin and being slow. That’s 51 times. If he repeats his 2005 season, and all my arbitrary other numbers hold true, that would be 134 opportunities to steal, give or take, if Delgado goes from first to second on every single.
So all David would have to do would be to steal successfully one out of every 4 times on first base, and thats if he never stole third. I think that won’t be a problem at all.
As the more intelligent ones would know though, that saying was first introduced by Whitey Herzog, who after a while was not up to par w what his expectation level was, and he said it as a way to protect himself and the managerial fraternity. The fact that so many people take it as a baseball adage and never question it is beyond reason.
You did after all spend a long time arguing the merits of Willie the other day. Don’t backtrack too far now, Model T.
Of course “their’s not”, bc you see, “their” is a possessive pronoun and is impossible the way you used it. So you I gues are right in that their’s not bc there’ll never be a “their’s not”.
Delgado will be the CLEANUP hitter. Man do you guys ever read what Willie and Omar say publicly in the papers and on mets.com. Delgado is batting Cleanup. So forget about David Wright batting Clean up, he will be batting 5th. So either way, Delgado is going to be in front of Wright, unless Willie allows him to bat 3rd.
It’s more than just a “baseball adage” as studies have been done by Bill James and the Pythagorean Theorem of baseball production.
And I’m still awaiting an objective response from you on them.
You’re really not trying to give me an english lesson are you?
Super T
Super T, I think he just did give you one. HAHA
No, I didn’t “try to” I just did! Conjugate this, Willie lover!
James also says batting Sandy K leadoff and Ruth ninth would have been marginal in difference. You agree there too? I think he says things to see how far his backers will go to support him. If you’re such a James backer, why do even care about the lineup and assert one previously? He says its marginal, like a manager. You keep marginalizing your points, you may want to drop the shovel and just climb out already.
Holy crap will you guys stop turning every thread into a pissing contest? Its so obnoxious. Correcting someone elses grammatical errors does NOT make your point more vaild than theirs, firewillie. Its a sign of immaturity. Beat someone on the merits of their argument, or be quiet.
Thanks 86, you beat me to it.
JRRM, you have illustrated for all of us the proper way to use “theirs”, in a possessive way. Congratulations for using it correctly. You get the gold star.
No doubt Fire Willie, It was just too funny not to say it.
Any way, Looks like Woodward signed too, so the mets do not have to go to arbitration again this season. This marks the 14th consecutive season we do not have to do that. I wonder if that is the longest stretch currently in baseball.
Oh yeah, Rich, thanks for educating what Willie and Omar’s plans are w Delgado. Before they got him, we need a cleanup hitter. When they got him, we needed a cleanup hitter (sometimes, “other than Floyd”). Its funny since thats the way they talk of him anytime his name is brought up. I’d love to see Wright in front of him in 3rd spot, Floyd in 5, and worry about 6-8 in ST. But we can hear the loose marble (I won’t go there now).
Fire Willie, I would deffinitely agree that Wright should be 3 Delgado 4th and Floyd 5th, but we do know who our manager is. The dumbest manager in baseball.
Personally though, I wouldn’t care about the 3-5 as long as Beltran were in the 2. The 3-5 would be great regardless of who was where if CB was 2, but that ain’t happenin’ so, I just think it’ll be dumb. At least WR bats the pitcher 9th.
Most intelligent baseball fans are aware that the difference in managers for a team through the course of a season is only worth a few wins or losses anyway
i would say that is true to a point. the above already takes into consideration that the manager utilizes
the best possible starting lineup available for a given roster. knowing statistics and probabilities is a
necessity. randolph is clueless in that area of baseball.
randolphs inferior lineups puts the team behind the power curve before the first pitch is pitched.
having beltran hit 3RD in the batting order because in 4 years from now, he will become a good #3 hitter is just
plain stupid. having wright hit 7th because he has to pay his dues is also stupid. having cairo and matsui
hit 2nd all year is also stupid.
if randolph doesn’t have this team in first place by june, they should ship randolph to Japan along with
matsui……a one way ticket.
Actually, he’s trying a new stance today (correcting grammatical errors). Normally, he’s too busy inserting his own words (instead of replying to mine) he misses my grammatical errors.
Super T
Is it lonely out there on that limb with your all-knowing crystal ball? It’s January and you know for sure the lineup card already based on ONE quote Willie made about Lo Duca batting 2nd and not Beltran? Man, you sure do work both sides of the plate very well, my friend. I mean, sometimes the media will quote someone and you take it as set-in-stone, yet other times you chastize people in here for believing that very same media!
And yes, I did steal part of your quote from the other day about being on that limb! So there!
i remember reading on mets.com last year about willie said he thought about having beltran bat in the 2-hole if the mets were able to pick up a big bat to hit clean-up. well now with delgado as our big bad clean-up hitter maybe willie will consider batting beltran #2.
i agree. as long as we have beltran in the 2-hole and not loduca or our 2b there any combination of wright/delgado/floyd in 3-5 should be more than sufficient. the big problem is sliding all four of them down in the lineup to give an obviously less proficient hitter more at-bats, because he ‘makes good contact.’ nevermind that he’s slow and doesnt really get on base all that well.
while nobody knows what our lineup will look like come opening day, i think it is pretty safe to say loduca will be batting second. anything else would come as a complete surprise to me. that just seems the willie thing to do, and sadly omar seems to be on the same page.
What? The limb is for a prediction, like you made saying Woody would make the team. Playing both sides from media quotes?! The hell are you talking about?! That I heard out of the ass’s mouth. On several f’in occassions. Maybe you read it once in the media, but when ever I hear WR talk, other than duh and uh I hear him say CB in the 3 hole, Delgado 4, LoDuca 2. ONE quote?! you went down a notch or two, 71. Primary content is indisputable. Its not like the interviews were put in context, played in clips. I heard him several times say this, and I forget who else on here backed me up on this. Listen to his FAN interviews, you might just learn something. Next time you steal my lines at least use them in the right context.
Super T, just bc you get shut down each and every time, doesn’t mean I don’t respond to you. I shut you down and threw in the english lesson for free, I figure you might learn baseball and english. We’ll see if it takes.
Maybe, maybe not. All I’m saying is that ballgames are played on the field, not in the media. Let’s wait and see.
Sadly, your baseball intelligence is greatly over-shadowed by your bitter arrogance. What a pity indeed.
Absolutely THC, although Omar does say its all up to WR, I think somehow he may tell him and WR will act as owner of the thought, although who the hell knows (that may be my anti Willie bias bleeding through as I find it hard to believe that WR can have thoughts of his own from hearing him speak.) You’re right tough, it does seem the “Willie thing to do”.
It is a pity you have no idea what you’re talking about. You come out and talk smack to me for no reason. Yet, the facts and materials you choose, you lack the base of knowledge to speak. What a shame for you, and you have no idea of idioms and expressions, esp at your age. I feel bad for you…
The Mets should do anything to get Beltrans bat going. If it is batting second so be it. This is mauch more important than any order per se.
Not at all. You attack my posts all the time. You can dish it out quite well, but obviously cannot take it. Chill out, man. Stop acting like you’re the expert in here, you’re not. News flash: my opinions (and everyone else’s for that matter) are every bit as worthy as yours whether you agree with them or not. Ease up on the self-righteous crap, it’s worn out.
71, If by “expert” you mean someone who knows more than you, that’s a given, my grandma knows more about baseball than you. But by no means do I ever value my posts more than most of the other posters here. I could give you a list of posters (but I won’t) whose opinions I find very worthwhile. The thing about your opinion mattering: You never state your opinion, you just wanted some revenge, it seems, for past shut downs. I can take it, I defended it, now you’re left out on an island w/ it. Educate yourself, you are taking a good first step, the geeks here are very good at educating on baseball theory, you are obviously trying. Keep it up and you’ll get there.
Okay, that’s it for me. I’m outta here, folks. I don’t need all this negative energy thrown at me from FW’s soapbox. I value myself more than that. And I value also kindness and fair play more than knowledge.
Great site, Geeks and I wish you all the best. Let’s Go Mets.
No, it isn’t true because it isn’t true.
So you will not post anymore because you and Fire Willie got into arguements?? If so be good MetsFanSince71, you had some good opinons and thoughts. Wish you the best.
Just saying something “isn’t true” doesn’t make it so. Your fellow posters are telling you it is true, you may want to pay attention to it.
Fire Willie, I know I heard the interview you are talking about. This guy argument is its not true because its not is just plain BS so he doesn’t feel dumb to himself.
You’re the master, of avoiding debates with grammatical talk and putting your own words in for other posters thoughts, no doubt about it.
With such ability maybe you should stick with the minors (where you and your skills are useful), and leave the big league debate talk to the adults.
Super T
You’re the funniest one here ST. You cite James when it suits you yet I call you on your theory and you say I’m avoiding you, yet the truth is, you can’t rebut what I say to you so you avoid me by saying nonsense and getting off track. I should leave the “debate talk”? Ok, buddy, I’ll leave all the debate talk to you. What is it again you think you know? By saying this you are claiming an expertise or just running off at the mouth? You seem to think, IIRC, that managers don’t acount for anything but trivial amounts in regard to win-loss records. You cite James theories as your backing for this. Yet you assert a lineup that I disputed, [major edit], and fail to realize how the James theory on the same damn thing negates any value whatsoever. You’ve said nothing to respond to this since you have nothing, you only reacted to my impromptu english lesson, which judging from your post did nothing to help. Don’t step unless you have something to talk about.
Well if they don’t, please do explain how the Mets managed to win 83 games last season with your buddy at the helm?
Super T
By this statement, you’d think you’d have something powerful and profound to contribute, lets see how inspired your current comment is:
Wow That is a huge Major League contribution to the discussion. You are of the unique mindset that DW will improve? Wow, know I know the genious at hand, great in-depth commentary, I’m sure everyone will benefit from your post, thanks on behalf of all of us. Another notch? What will that be, the super duper notch?
FW, Grow the %^&* up! Are you capable of actually just taking something that is written to you and replying to it? Numb nuts, that was posted in the opening of another posted thread garnered to start other posts and more thoughts. But of course, if you can bring it into this thread to try and discredit someone and act the bigger fool than you already are, you’re all over it. As earlier stated, go play with the kiddies.
Super T
Masterful job, noone gives a crap about that weak crap you posted and has yet to reply. I have been replying to you; you sais I was minor, a kid, yet your adult theme is “DW will bring a new notch”, ooh what mature thought conceot that is. Like I said, you’re the funniest mofo here, that cracks me up!!!
conceot, concept