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January 16, 2006
  
Where there’s a Weaver, there’s a Way

In a year where Kevin Millwood can walk off with sixty million dollars, Jarrod Washburn can grab thirty-seven and run, and even Matt Morris can somehow land a twenty-seven million dollar deal over three years, one would think there’d be a market for Jeff Weaver. Weaver, and his agent Scott Boras, admittedly spent most of their time trying to negotiate a deal with the Dodgers, only to find out that the team wasn’t all that interested in paying Weaver the Monopoly money everybody else was getting. Now it’s January 16th, a time when most big name free agents are falling asleep on their newly formed piles of money, and Weaver — who led the Dodgers in wins (14) and strikeouts (157) last season — finds himself without a home.

Meanwhile, in his haste to restock the bullpen, Omar Minaya has suddenly weakened the Mets’ starting rotation by trading off Jae Seo. Though Aaron Heilman had a terrific season last year, and would love to return to the starting rotation, the Mets have stated publicly they intend to keep him in the bullpen to setup Billy Wagner and/or Duaner Sanchez. Whether they privately have not yet decided where Aaron’s future lies, we are left to believe that the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation belong to Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano. This in a year where two other question marks, Tom Glavine and Kris Benson, are the Mets numbers two and three.

Weaver was considered a future ace coming out of college, and the Tigers snagged him with the fourteenth overall pick. After thirty-six impressive minor league innings, where he went 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA, Detroit slotted him into their rotation. And there he remained, the ace in name of some truly awful Tigers teams. However, one of the biggest drawbacks for Weaver’s career was what happened after his time with the Tigers — his one and a half year stint in the Big Apple.

Because of Weaver’s grand failure — and it truly was grand (12-12 with an ERA over five in 237 innings) — many are hesitant to even think of bringing Weaver back to New York. Pressure to succeed in this town is already high enough for players as it is, let alone players who’ve already tried and flopped.

However, the list of names of the pitchers who have come to the New York Yankees — even in the last few years — and failed is extensive: Hideki Irabu, Kevin Brown, José Contreras, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright, just to name a few. Is it that the spotlight is too bright for some men?

Or is it just that these guys were given the hook too fast to improve on the biggest stage in the world?

While Irabu was traded into the exile of Montreal, where he quickly fanned out — Contreras, Vazquez and Jeff Weaver found success after leaving the club. It’s also important to note that even guys with track records of success like Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Kenny Rogers pitched far poorer in their first go-around in a Yankees uniform, only to go on to be successful later (Johnson was 9-6 with a 4.16 ERA before the All-Star break last season).

Since leaving for Los Angeles, Weaver has rediscovered what made him successful in Detroit. He’ll never be confused for a number one pitcher again, but he’d certainly make an excellent number two or three. He pitches a ton of quality innings (he’s thrown over 220 his past two seasons, and has averaged 218 innings over his career), his strikeout rate continues to increase, while his walks decrease (though his increase in homeruns allowed may have something to do with that number). And while Los Angeles will never be confused with New York in terms of media and rabidness of the fanbase, it’s not as though he’s putting these numbers up Kansas City. The fact is, Weaver has pitched very well in the second-most popular town in baseball.

As a Met fan, it’s fairly easy to write a guy off for failing as a Yankee, if only because the Mets have been so very lucky with the pitchers they’ve landed. Al Leiter, Mike Hampton and Pedro Martinez are the last three big name pitchers the Mets have acquired, and all did very well in their respective stays. Even guys considered busts — such as Kevin Appier — pitched pretty well in retrospect.

The fact remains, however, that the Mets need another starting pitcher — this much is pretty clear. Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber both won’t be ready this season for different reasons, and Brian Bannister is a question mark as to what he can give you in terms of quality starts down the stretch. Relying on Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano in a year you’re expected to take the NL East can be a very scary gamble, and it’s even more of a risk when there’s no guarantee a Barry Zito is going to be on the trade market come July.

So what can the Mets do?

Well, they can try giving Jeff Weaver a call. In his article last Friday, Peter Gammons reported that Weaver might be inclined to sign a one-year deal in order to go back on the market next offseason — and that of all teams, the Orioles were the most interested. Whatever the case, the Mets can surely offer far more in terms of success, money and a better home ballpark (stats wise) than the Orioles can.

Meanwhile, signing Weaver would give the Mets a more reliable three or four for their run to the pennant, and most certainly bump Zambrano out of the rotation and into the bullpen where he belongs.

A signing of Weaver would give the Mets a truly symbiotic relationship, in that a one-year deal gives both sides what they want: it gives the Mets a better shot at winning games and gives them a reliable arm in case they can’t come up with somebody come the trading deadline, and it gives Weaver a place to call home for a year, and put up some nice numbers, before he goes back out on the market.

Most importantly of all, though, Weaver’s simply better than most of what the Mets have got. Especially if Tom Glavine’s more 2002 than 2004.


82 Responses to “Where there’s a Weaver, there’s a Way”

  1. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 12:11 am (#24875)

    I think the mets should sign Weaver to a one year deal or even a 3 year deal. The guy is a pretty decent pitcher, and he wont even be considered a one here. If he was to drop his asking price to about 7 million a season I would give him a chance, he would be a nice piece to the rotation to eat innings and give us a chance to win every time he pitched.

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  3. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 12:36 am (#24878)

    I’ve been on the fence about the Mets signing Weaver, mostly, I’ve been leaning towards signing him. Now, after Andrew’s article, I’m convinced the Mets should take a shot on him, even if it is just a one-year deal. Here’s what convinced me:

    Most importantly of all, though, Weaver’s simply better than most of what the Mets have got.

    That line is right on the money! I’d certainly feel a whole lot better sending Weaver out there than Zambrano or Benson. Weaver eats up innings and so what if he posts a 4 ERA? He could very well lower that number at Shea and besides, this lineup should give him more than enough support.

    Nice job, Andrew.

  4. Comment posted by Wagner Dominant on January 16, 2006 at 12:40 am (#24880)

    i would only want weaver for a one year deal.if we could that would be sick and we would definetly improve are pitching and have a reliable arm but i wouldn’t want to be stuck with him for 3 years b/c of the bust chance he presents

  5. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 12:41 am (#24881)

    Does anyone know if Weaver is usually considered the number 1 for the dodgers the last 2 seasons? If so, if he came to the mets he would not be higher than the 3 or 4 starter so maybe that would help and he would pitch more effectively than last 2 seasons. I was reading a little scouting report on him on espn.com and says sometimes when he lets up a hit he gets a little nervous and will ruin the way he was pitching. Hopefully if we got him they would work on that and he could put it all together and he could help the mets. Only sad part is I do not think the mets are really looking at signing him.

  6. Comment posted by JK on January 16, 2006 at 12:42 am (#24882)

    give the guy 7 mil a year? what if he straight chokes like he did for the yanks? feel a lot like the matsui deal. only a 1 year deal, if at all. I’d give him 4 or 5 with incentives to bring it up to a potential 10 mil. If he is an all star or rates in the cy young, then yeah he’s done a good job and deserves to get paid. but the risk with him is so high in new york. he has potential, but just doesn’t seem like a new york guy. maybe he has grown to be able to handle it like billy wagner said he had. i guess grown isn’t the best word, but it’s close.

    If he could eat over 200 innings though, that’d be nice. but not an era over 5. that just sucks.

  7. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 12:44 am (#24883)

    Okay maybe 7 million for a season was high. Also the era will never reach 5 in an NL stadium. He would play the NL east mostly and there are not too many great offensive teams in the NL east this season. His era should lower down to the high 3 to the low 4 which is acceptable for the 3 or 4th starter.

  8. Comment posted by JK on January 16, 2006 at 12:46 am (#24884)

    Trachsel and Benson aren’t that bad. Benson needs to prove he can pitch a whole season. Trachsel needs to prove he’s healthy. If he is, he’s a good option, especially as an innings-eater and quality starts. He may be painful to watch cause he’s so slow, but he’s become pretty dependable. I used to like benson, and I don’t want to have been wrong.

    Weaver’s got nasty stuff, but I’m not confident in his ability to pitch in new york.

  9. Comment posted by JK on January 16, 2006 at 12:47 am (#24885)

    if his numbers could come down there rich, then i’d be okay. but this team does not need meltdowns. looper was enough, right?

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  11. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 12:49 am (#24886)

    Only sad part is I do not think the mets are really looking at signing him.

    That’s what I’ve been asking. I have seen no mention of the Mets interest.

    BUT, remember, Omar did mention a “mystery free agent pitcher” a few weeks back. PLUS, I’ve read that he has a pretty good relationship now with Boras after the Beltran and Pelfrey signings. Maybe Omar is purposely playing this low key to keep the bidding down? Just speculating.

  12. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 12:50 am (#24887)

    I do not know if he would meltdown like Looper did, but this is just all talk. It is not really a possability of Weaver signing, just the geeks coming up with an article that makes it seem like it would be a good move. The mets and Weaver are deffinitly not talking, because he wants a contract with stability and not a one year deal. The mets do not want him because he did not pitch well in NY before so they will not try to get him. So we do not really have to worry or discuss this, because the possibility of Weaver pitching for the mets this season is the same as me becoming a ball player, which is ZERO percent lol

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  14. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 12:52 am (#24888)

    the possibility of Weaver pitching for the mets this season is the same as me becoming a ball player, which is ZERO percent lol

    How’s your fastball, Rich? LOL :)

  15. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 12:57 am (#24889)

    Not too good, thats why I used that analogy lol.

  16. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:27 am (#24890)

    It is not really a possability of Weaver signing, just the geeks coming up with an article that makes it seem like it would be a good move. The mets and Weaver are deffinitly not talking, because he wants a contract with stability and not a one year deal. The mets do not want him because he did not pitch well in NY before so they will not try to get him. So we do not really have to worry or discuss this, because the possibility of Weaver pitching for the mets this season is the same as me becoming a ball player, which is ZERO percent lol

    I’m curious, Rich, do you know something or is that just an assumption?

    From what I personally have heard, Weaver wants a chance to pitch for a contender and is willing to take a one year deal with a team that has chance at the postseason in order to capitalize on that in the 2007 offseason. And I’ve also heard that Omar’s not happy with his rotation the way it’s currently set up, and he’s looking for another reliable arm anywhere he can get it to slot in between Glavine and Benson.

    That would make it sound like the Mets and Weaver could be a good match for each other, but then again I haven’t heard anything stated that said the Mets or Weaver weren’t interested in each other. Have you?

  17. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:30 am (#24892)

    Yea I read over at mlbtraderumors.com where the monger of that says that he talked to his mets source and said the mets are not interested in him. So that is where I got that from. So I am just citing what I read over there from a guy who supposedly has a mets source.

  18. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:32 am (#24893)

    Here is the link to that site where he said he talked to his mets source.
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/01/more_jeff_weave.html

    Where have you heard Omar is not liking his rotation and said he wants to get a pitcher to slot in front of Glavine and Benson.

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  20. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 1:33 am (#24894)

    Andrew, would your guess be that Weaver COULD be the mystery free agent pitcher Omar mentioned a few weeks ago??

  21. Comment posted by Super T on January 16, 2006 at 1:36 am (#24896)

    While he would definitely offer security, I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s an upgrade over what the team currently has.

    The Mets SP as a whole isn’t as strong going into this season (at this point) as it was last season, but the teams bullpen is also much improved over last season too. The team should only need 6-7 good innings from their starters and then should be able to turn the pitching over to a capable bullpen, unlike last season.

    Super T

  22. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:39 am (#24897)

    Andrew, would your guess be that Weaver COULD be the mystery free agent pitcher Omar mentioned a few weeks ago??

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it was. Omar’s a smart guy, and if this rumbling of Weaver being willing to accept a one year deal is true, I could see him jumping on that. It makes too much sense not too, especially seeing that Omar clearly doesn’t care for Kris Benson.

    Where have you heard Omar is not liking his rotation and said he wants to get a pitcher to slot in front of Glavine and Benson.

    It’s been said in the papers all winter that Omar’s looking to tighten up his rotation, and he’s proven it by his actions (trying to move Benson, trying to trade for Vazquez/Zito). That’s why that “They don’t like Weaver because he pitched badly in New York” excuse doesn’t hold water with me — if that’s true, why would they go so hard after Vazquez? There are certainly guys you could be wary about bringing back into New York, but I don’t believe Jeff Weaver is one of them.

  23. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:42 am (#24898)

    Who said they were going hard at Vazquez? The media writes alot of bs to sell the papers. Also you said you heard personally who did you hear from that said the mets was interested in Weaver or that Weaver wants to pitch for a contender?

  24. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:45 am (#24899)

    Andrew, I know you wrote your article and it was a good article. You do not have to argue from what I wrote. You sold me on the idea that if the mets signed Weaver it would be alright, I am just skeptical that it is even a possability, because Omar likes to work fast, and if Weaver was a possability, he would have gone after him hard and fast. I could be wrong he could be talking to him and keeping it under the radar and be a huge surprise move. I personally just do not see it happening. If it does, I will be on this site and apologize to you for saying it had no chance of happening.

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  26. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 1:46 am (#24900)

    So let’s suppose for a moment the Mets did snag Weaver. I assume the odd man out would be Benson or Zambrano. What would Omar do with them? A trade for prospects?

  27. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:47 am (#24901)

    possability, should be possibility

  28. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:49 am (#24902)

    Andrew, I know you wrote your article and it was a good article. You do not have to argue from what I wrote. You sold me on the idea that if the mets signed Weaver it would be alright, I am just skeptical that it is even a possability, because Omar likes to work fast, and if Weaver was a possability, he would have gone after him hard and fast. I could be wrong he could be talking to him and keeping it under the radar and be a huge surprise move. I personally just do not see it happening. If it does, I will be on this site and apologize to you for saying it had no chance of happening.

    Hey, no, I wasn’t taking offense to what you were saying — I was genuinely curious if you had heard something I had not. I appreciate any and all feedback.

    To answer your last question, I haven’t heard anything about the Mets being interested in Weaver — but it seems like the kind of guy they would have interest in, especially if he’s willing to settle for a one year deal and then not have to be committed to him when Pelfrey or Bannister’s ready to go.

  29. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:50 am (#24903)

    So let’s suppose for a moment the Mets did snag Weaver. I assume the odd man out would be Benson or Zambrano. What would Omar do with them? A trade for prospects?

    If I had to guess, Omar’d bump Zambrano to the bullpen. At this point, I don’t see Benson going anywhere, at least not until June or July.

  30. Comment posted by Mets86 on January 16, 2006 at 1:51 am (#24904)

    If we got Weaver, I hope they would try to trade Zambrano for prospects. Benson as the number 4 or even 5 would be sooooo good for the mets next year. I think Zambrano might be a little more worth while for teams since he has soo much more potential compared to Benson. But since salaries probably come into hand, Benson would have to be the odd man out since he makes more than Zambrano.

  31. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:52 am (#24905)

    Also, to Rich: it should be noted that no teams were able to negotiate with Jeff Weaver until January 11th, because he put all his efforts into re-signing with the Dodgers. In regards to Weaver, think of him as just now entering his free agency — so he’d still be in the process of receiving offers, looking around, weighing options, etc. Remember, though Omar does likes to work fast, it still took him a month to land Billy Wagner.

  32. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:53 am (#24906)

    Alright good, I did not want you to think I was trying to push any buttons the wrong way on you and have you mad at me.
    Like I said, I would not mind getting Weaver in here, I think he is a decent pitcher but I do not have a clue what Omar is thinking or wants for the team.

  33. Comment posted by Rich on January 16, 2006 at 1:54 am (#24907)

    Andrew, Thanx for letting me know that, I did not know he was not able to negotiate with other teams until then. So I could be wrong and this could be the pitcher Omar does want.

  34. Comment posted by Mets86 on January 16, 2006 at 1:55 am (#24908)

    Hey Andrew, since you are one of the geeks, do you know anything about the new stadium. I asked in the other thread but only got a little bit of information from a couple of guys. Do you know if they have a design for it, when they are going to start building any info you have would be great thanx.

  35. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:55 am (#24909)

    Andrew, Thanx for letting me know that, I did not know he was not able to negotiate with other teams until then. So I could be wrong and this could be the pitcher Omar does want.

    Or you could be right, and this all could have been for nothing. ;-)

  36. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 1:58 am (#24910)

    Hey Andrew, since you are one of the geeks, do you know anything about the new stadium. I asked in the other thread but only got a little bit of information from a couple of guys. Do you know if they have a design for it, when they are going to start building any info you have would be great thanx.

    Sadly, no, I know about as much as you do.

    I’ve been going off this, as it seems to update occasionally: http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/future/MetsBallpark.htm

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  38. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 2:00 am (#24911)

    I think this was a worthy article. Andrew, you’re writing was not a waste of time at all. It does make ALOT of sense to bring Weaver here. And you’re right, his free agency period has just begun so the playing field is wide open now.

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  40. Comment posted by MetsFanSince71 on January 16, 2006 at 2:06 am (#24913)

    I’ve been going off this, as it seems to update occasionally: http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/future/MetsBallpark.htm

    That article is fairly accurate. But the 600M is just the Mets part, not the total. Add 20% which the city and state will kick in. I keep hearing 800M for the new digs. Also, last I heard, the “sliding grass” and retractable roof were both nixed, too expensive (the roof alone would cost nearly 100M!)

  41. Comment posted by Mets86 on January 16, 2006 at 2:08 am (#24914)

    Thanks for the site Andrew, atleast now I can look it up at all times. Thank you very much.

  42. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:21 am (#24916)

    especially seeing that Omar clearly doesn’t care for Kris Benson.

    Didn’t Omar clearly sign him to a 3yr deal last winter? That was Omar right? Brought the market WAY up for midlevel starters to 3/21 range and pissed of all other GMs, that was OM, right? Must really hate him to do that….

    Remember, though Omar does likes to work fast, it still took him a month to land Billy Wagner

    That was bc BW dictated the tempo since he wanted to field offers and such. Would Weaver need to be compensated for even after the arb fell through w LAD? Something to consider if so.
    If he was brought here, which would be good, I could see Benson still being dealt for Julio or MacDougal. Although I don’t profess to know Bal or KC payroll deal, aka budget.
    Weaver is the only FA that makes sense to bring in still, other than minor FA relievers, although he could bring in a Lima or other DR FA, Astacio (I still worry Sosa is in the works to be a Boone type guy).
    I saw Weaver beat the MEts, although he fell apart, I was impressed having remembered him suck. He was very good early.

  43. Comment posted by Andrew Hintz on January 16, 2006 at 2:26 am (#24917)

    Didn’t Omar clearly sign him to a 3yr deal last winter? That was Omar right? Brought the market WAY up for midlevel starters to 3/21 range and pissed of all other GMs, that was OM, right? Must really hate him to do that….

    You’re right, my bad. I totally forgot that once a GM signs a guy, they are now obligated to like them for the remainder of their contract, no matter how they perform — especially if they don’t perform up to expectations. Must’ve slipped my mind.

  44. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:39 am (#24918)

    Easy slim, just goofing around. The guy did overinflate the market to keep him, now he’ll trade him for any reliever he can it seems. I think he’d sign a Weaver just to push that one out. Although Weaver was tied for 2nd w the most HRs allowed w 35. That is more scary than the k’s are pleasant. Hell even Minky went deep on him. That may be a good reason many GMs have shown reluctance. He is also the only NL pitcher to hit more guys than Zambrano. Mr Met would have to bring the binoculars to another fifth of Mets games. I do like his ability to go deep into games, though, so a one year deal w a team option seems decent, but no way go to 3.

  45. Comment posted by dagezi on January 16, 2006 at 5:20 am (#24919)

    A one year deal with performance options (base 5-6 up to 12 if he wins the cy (right…) would be great and would help me forgive the Seo trade. Dude, though, Weaver just looks like a stoner. He seems like someone Mazzone might help.

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  47. Comment posted by jpwf on January 16, 2006 at 7:15 am (#24920)

    Weaver’s got nasty stuff, but I’m not confident in his ability to pitch in new york.

    No he doesn’t- he used to with the Tigers- his stuff slips a little every year- he’s now got no btter stuff than Benson.
    He put up a 4.00 in Dodger Stadium- he’s not going to do bteer than that anywhere else- Shea Stadium included.

    He’s repped by Boras

    Unless it’s a one year deal- pass.

    What’s really funny is that the Dodgers wanted Seo because they think he can effectively replace Weaver’s role with them- so now we need to get Weaver to replace Seo?

  48. Comment posted by CHris in ga on January 16, 2006 at 12:43 pm (#24933)

    Please forgive me but……..

    I would rather have Zambrano than weaver

    What about Pedro Astacio?

  49. Comment posted by newt on January 16, 2006 at 12:46 pm (#24934)

    Things have changed since he last pitched in NY - its called maturing. A one year deal for a quality starter who will give you 220 innings (Shea will help w/ hrs) AND you get to offload Zambrano for good prospects - do it in a heartbeat.

  50. Comment posted by Harry on January 16, 2006 at 12:56 pm (#24935)

    I would trade zambrano and Matsui for one really solid prospect

  51. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 1:04 pm (#24937)

    Andrew you need to get off the Jeff Weaver kick, because 1) it isn’t likely to happen and 2) he is not nearly as good as you (and others) tout him to be.

    Yes, Weaver throughs a lot of innings, and yes, he won 14 games and occasionally looked really good (two shut-outs). But, over all, he is mediocre at best.

    Let’s look at some stats:

    ERA - 4.22 (the much maligned Victor Zambrano’s was slightly better at 4.17)
    BAA - .256 (worse than Kris Benson’s .253)
    HRs allowed - 35!!! How about good for second in NL?
    He gave up nearly a hit an inning (220/224), if it wasn’t for his good control, his ERA would have been closer to 5 than 4.

    It is not like he was way off track on any of his career numbers. He did give up a career high in HRs, but he walked a career low - maybe a correlation - but his career ERA is 4.44 and his career BAA is .269.

    It is not like Weaver was pitching in Arizona or Colorado - he was pitching in Dodger Stadium - which, correct me if I am wrong on this - is a pitcher’s park!

    Not to mention, he pitched in the worse division is baseball, so it was not like he was facing stacked offenses on a regular basis.

    In short, Weaver is a solid pitcher, but other than a durabile track record, he isn’t better than anything we already have. In some areas, I think he is even worse. Especially when you factor in his NYC meltdown.

    Truthfully, I go to battle with what we have and rely on Bannister/Soler if someone falters. If our offense and bullpen are as good as they should be, we can live with what we have. Besides, come post-season, we only need four starters.

  52. Comment posted by nyleetch2 on January 16, 2006 at 1:07 pm (#24939)

    hmmm i wonder what the dimensions will be like for Ebbets II. Hitter’s park or pitcher’s? I would say compared to ebbets, but those walls changed around a bit. Check it out: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/stadium/stadiume.shtml

    Went from Lefty’s dream/Pitcher’s park vs. righties to flat out hitter’s park, but always with quirks. With Wright and Milledge both being righties and Delgado gone by the time the park is built, i might stay away from the original dimensions though. Sure we can get another good lefty bat when the time comes, but 419 in left and 450 in center? You’d see maybe 10 homeruns a year on that side of the park.

    of course the new phillies stadium proves you can’t guarantee anything with wall dimensions.

  53. Comment posted by Chris in ga on January 16, 2006 at 1:07 pm (#24940)

    (Shea will help w/ hrs)

    He’s coming from a pitchers park in LA. I dont see how shea will help something that Dodger stadium couldnt fix.

  54. Comment posted by Wagner Dominant on January 16, 2006 at 1:33 pm (#24943)

    What about Pedro Astacio?

    I think Pedro Astacio would be a great guy to give a chance to. he as of now has nowhere to go becasue padres declined his arbitration. he also has already been at shea so the weaver uncertainty isn’t there and he would cost less and it could definetly only be a one year deal.

    Maybe that was Omars mytstery starter(he sounds like a guy omar would like)

  55. Comment posted by argonbunnies on January 16, 2006 at 1:59 pm (#24945)

    Thank you, Sweetlew! I can’t believe it took 43 posts for someone to point out that Weaver is not a particularly good pitcher. His stuff has impressive movement on TV, but it doesn’t seem to be that hard to hit. Think Brian Lawrence — occasionally he’ll dominate, but more often he’ll pitch 7 and give up 10 hits.

    What’s the chance that Weaver will be better than Benson in 2006? Than Trachsel? Than Zambrano? I’d say somewhere in the 50% range. Is there ANY point?

    Simply getting a new starter and bumping Zambrano is the worst possible use of our current assets:
    1) we have ZERO need for Zambrano in the ‘pen given its current composition (not to mention his tendency to need a while to settle into a game)
    2) Zambrano has ZERO trade value at the moment and we would not get back anything we want if we dealt him

  56. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:18 pm (#24947)

    He’s coming from a pitchers park in LA. I dont see how shea will help something that Dodger stadium couldnt fix.

    Like I said earlier, he gave up two shots to RF in Shea in like 6 inn or so. One to DMinky, who isn’t Delgado or Thome. He seems alot like VZ by numbersw anyway.
    Astacio’s best thing for him is that he would continue the trend for Omar. I hated watching him pitch last year, I’d hate to watch him this year.

  57. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 2:28 pm (#24948)

    Simply getting a new starter and bumping Zambrano is the worst possible use of our current assets:
    1) we have ZERO need for Zambrano in the ‘pen given its current composition (not to mention his tendency to need a while to settle into a game)
    2) Zambrano has ZERO trade value at the moment and we would not get back anything we want if we dealt him

    I concur. There is a big fallacy on this site that Zambrano is a terrible pitcher. He is right about average (with an upside window that is rapidly shutting!). If he puts up the exact same numbers as last year, he will probably go 13-6 b/c he will have more run support and a better bullpen. That is not too shabby for a #5 starter.

    The real concern should not be VZ, it should be Trax’s back. But even this is not something that will side track us next year. If Trax returns to 2004 form, then we have no problem with our rotation at all. If his back goes again, then we need to slide VZ into the 4 spot and hope Bannister/Soler can give us quality innings. But, even if neither can, the worst case scenario is we move Heilman into the rotation - leaving Bell, Padilla and Sanchez as the bridge to Wagner.

    In short, while our rotation could have a couple of holes, there is no reason to add anyone else. If we lose multiple starters, we might be screwed - but tell me how many teams can lose 2 starters and still win the division?

  58. Comment posted by Brooklyn Battle on January 16, 2006 at 2:30 pm (#24949)

    I’ve been down on Weaver since the yankee days (obviously) he’s been better in LA but Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park as much as shea so I wouldn’t expect his numbers to improve. I’m surprised Texas hasn’t signed him, seems like a good fit - but I don’t want him here - I’d rather let Zambrano pitch, who I think is a fine #5.

    also thanks for the great links above re: stadiums & Rumors

  59. Comment posted by Fastball on January 16, 2006 at 2:32 pm (#24950)

    He’ll never be confused for a number one pitcher again, but he’d certainly make an excellent number two or three…The fact is, Weaver has pitched very well in the second-most popular town in baseball.

    I can’t see Weaver as a #2 on the Mets or any good team. A #3 at best. And he’s been no better than mediocre with the Dodgers, putting up an ERA+ of 103 and 96 the past two seasons. His career ERA+ is just 99, a sure sign of a mediocre pitcher, and is 11 points lower than Seo’s career ERA+ of 110. I can’t understand the fascination with Weaver. If some Mets fans all too easily dismiss pitchers who were failures as Yankees, others seem to over-value ex-Yankees (ie, Cairo). Look at Weaver’s stats objectively (league and park adjusted) and he’s done nothing special in his career. He’s worse than Seo, and even worse than Zambrano (in terms of ERA+). I’d rather they stick with Zambrano in the rotation than sign Weaver.

  60. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 2:33 pm (#24951)

    Astacio’s best thing for him is that he would continue the trend for Omar. I hated watching him pitch last year, I’d hate to watch him this year.

    I agree with you - Why would we bring in a way past his prime, injury risk starter when we have a couple of good young options? I thought Astacio was not a bad move for us — in 2003! But today - unless he is willing to sign a minor league deal with the express understanding that he is #3 in line for a ML shot (behind Bannister and Soler) then let him just retire and get on with his life!

  61. Comment posted by james on January 16, 2006 at 2:36 pm (#24953)

    While I agree that Weaver is a fairly average pitcher, and certainly wouldn’t argue for the Mets
    to do a hard push to get him, he is, despite his ERA, better than Benson and Zambrano. His k/9
    last year was better than both, as was his k/bb. He’s consistently been a league average pitcher,
    who throws 200 innings, while both Benson and Zambrano have been below average a number of times,
    and haven’t shown the ability to regularly eat innings.

    As for his homers, Dodger Stadium is a pitchers’ park, but that’s because it supresses doubles
    and triples not homers. Shea, on the other hand, supresses homers. So for a guy whose fly balls
    turn into home runs, Shea is ideal.

    The eal reason to consider Weaver, assuming he can be had for a reasonable deal, is the
    loss of Petit and Hernandez and Kazmir. Without those 3, and with the free agency next year of
    Glavine and Trachsel, the 2007 Mets would be left with Pedro and Benson and little else. It’s
    possible, of course, that Soler, Humber, Bannister and Pelfrey will all make it next year
    but that seems unlikely. With no real pitching depth, the Mets would need to sign at least
    two free agent starters next off-season, and perhaps three. They can do that, but it’s likely at
    least one of those guys who be no better than Weaver, at best.

    My preference is for Heilman to be put in the rotation, but since this seems to be beyond the
    Mets’ imaginings, signing Weaver wouldn’t be bad. In that event, I’d trade Trachsel before
    Victor, since he’s likely to bring more, and in effect you’d be replacing a mediocre old
    pitcher with one year left for a mediocre young (ish) pitcher with 2-3 years. In the Mets’
    situation, that’s an upgrade, albeit a minor one.

    There is irony, of course, in replacing Seo with Weaver, since Seo may be better, but the barn
    door’s closed on that one I’m afraid.

  62. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 2:39 pm (#24954)

    Pitchers who deserve to start for the 2006 Mets before Weaver or Astascio:

    1) Brian Bannister
    2) Alay Soler
    3) Jason Scoobie
    4) El Sid (he tried to come back a couple of years ago)
    5) David Cone (ditto)
    6) Doc Gooden (maybe we can get him to win #200)
    7) ME (hey I’m a lefty)
    8) fire willie - if his fastball is as nasty as his verbage (I mean that as a compliment), then no one could hit him!

  63. Comment posted by Fastball on January 16, 2006 at 2:48 pm (#24956)

    He’s consistently been a league average pitcher, who throws 200 innings, while both Benson and Zambrano have been below average a number of times

    Weaver has been below league average in ERA+ for 3 years during his career, most recently last year. OTOH, Zambrano has had only one year, 2002, in which he was below league average. Considering Weaver’s pitched the last few years with much better bullpen support than Zambrano’s ever had, the difference is even wider.

    So even though I’ve never been a big Zambrano fan, I think he’s probably a better bet than Weaver. And at least no worse.

  64. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:50 pm (#24957)

    8) fire willie - if his fastball is as nasty as his verbage (I mean that as a compliment), then no one could hit him!

    Slew, I’d be better as a weak hitting 2b than anything else, but thanks for the consideration. Although w my “funk” (I can turn it loose) I could be out of the pen.

  65. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:52 pm (#24958)

    Slew, also, when did El Sid try for a comeback (and w what team, mets?)? I recall Cone’s but I don’t SF’s. He was one of my alltime fave mets, I’d love for him to try another comeback. I can’t believe I missed that one.

  66. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 2:54 pm (#24959)

    James, next year is a good FA class for starters. If it is a priority for Omar, he seems to get what he absolutely needs. In that case, whoever he targeted as a priority would be better than Weaver.

  67. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 3:31 pm (#24961)

    Slew, also, when did El Sid try for a comeback (and w what team, mets?)? I recall Cone’s but I don’t SF’s.

    It was sometime in the past three or four years - he came to spring training to see what he had in the tank. he was actually thinner and in better shape than he was in the late-80’s!

  68. Comment posted by argonbunnies on January 16, 2006 at 3:51 pm (#24963)

    I seem to recall that Sid made a brief attempt to pitch for the Orioles (which resulted in some ML innings) and then one for the Astros (which didn’t).

    Closest delivery today to Sid’s: Brian Fuentes.

  69. Comment posted by argonbunnies on January 16, 2006 at 3:54 pm (#24965)

    James, next year is a good FA class for starters. If it is a priority for Omar, he seems to get what he absolutely needs. In that case, whoever he targeted as a priority would be better than Weaver.

    Not to be a dick, but could you post a list of 2006 FA starters better than Weaver? I don’t remember there being any besides Zito.

    James makes some good points about the future, but I still don’t think it makes sense to acquire Weaver now unless we can trade one of the guys in their final year (Glavine, Trachsel).

  70. Comment posted by Nails on January 16, 2006 at 3:57 pm (#24966)

    I agree with most recent posters that rolling the dice with Zamb may be a better poison to swallow than Weaver and his 35 hrs. I also hated that photo of Weaver when he bit into his glove after a 2inning start with the Yanks. That photo was on the back of both the NY Post and the Daily News and it reminded me of when I did that one time and it really hurt my teeth.

  71. Comment posted by sweetlew on January 16, 2006 at 4:52 pm (#24967)

    Not to be a dick, but could you post a list of 2006 FA starters better than Weaver? I don’t remember there being any besides Zito.

    Radke, Santanna, Buehrle, Zito, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, Mulder, Woody Williams, Jason Schmidt, Mussina, Schilling, Wakefield, Wells.

    I don’t know if any of these guys signed extensions, and I know some of them are old, and not all of them are better options than Weaver - but considering we have Pedro, Benson and Zambrano (unless denied arbitration) under contract for next year; plus (hopefully) Bannister and Soler for all of 2007; and (maybe) Pelfrey and Humber for late 2007; what do we need short of one dominant #1 or #2 starter?

    Considering we have every position under contract for 2007 except LF and 2B (both can be filled more than adequately internally), our bullpen is set through 2008, and Glavine, Trax, Floyd and Matsui all come off the books there is no reason we cannot overwhelm Zito, Mulder, Pettitte and, maybe, Radke.

  72. Comment posted by Fastball on January 16, 2006 at 4:53 pm (#24968)

    Oh geesh. I didn’t even realize he gave up 35 dingers last year. That’s awful. If he was with the Mets and did that, fans would be calling for his head. I guess this shows that to some, the grass is always greener on the other side.

  73. Comment posted by Chipper is Super on January 16, 2006 at 8:43 pm (#24974)

    Thought you guys got rid of me didnt you. If you guys get Weaver that would be music to our ears down in Atlanta. It would make your starting rotation even worse than what it was. Besides Pedro who is hurt you guys have no one. Yes the braves rotation might be weaker than in years past, but atleast we still have Smoltz and Hudson who is better then the rest of your rotation. I will level with you guys and say both Pedro and Smoltz is a injury risk for both guys, but Hudson is better then everyone else in your rotation. Watch out mets the braves are going for 15 in a row. HAHAHA Braves rule.

  74. Comment posted by cp on January 16, 2006 at 9:00 pm (#24975)

    Why is it that Weaver was not free to negotiate until a few days ago? Was he offered arbitration & then talks went nowhere? If so does that mean he would cost us our 2nd round draft pick?

  75. Comment posted by Super T on January 16, 2006 at 9:36 pm (#24976)

    Considering we have every position under contract for 2007 except LF and 2B (both can be filled more than adequately internally), our bullpen is set through 2008, and Glavine, Trax, Floyd and Matsui all come off the books there is no reason we cannot overwhelm Zito, Mulder, Pettitte and, maybe, Radke.

    Exactly, Sweetlew. 2007 best case scenario - Lastings Milledge takes Cliff Floyd’s OF spot, Anderson Hernandez or possibly even Jeff Keppinger takes 2B, and with Glavine, Floyd, Trachsel, and Matsui’s contracts all coming off the books the team should have about $30 Mil to throw on a couple of those named starters.

    Super T

  76. Comment posted by Chipper Is Super on January 16, 2006 at 9:57 pm (#24977)

    The Braves are going to win the division, so you guys do not even have to worry about it. I will send postcards from the playoffs again. This year we win it all.

  77. Comment posted by Chipper Is Super on January 16, 2006 at 11:32 pm (#24979)

    I guess all the mets fans agree with me, they finally realized that the METS SUCK and will not win this year. HAHAHA Braves in 06.

  78. Comment posted by fire willie on January 16, 2006 at 11:36 pm (#24980)

    Not to be a dick, but could you post a list of 2006 FA starters better than Weaver? I don’t remember there being any besides Zito.

    Slew, Santana is not up next FA. I think Buerhle (sp) (or Garland, I do confuse them) just re-upped as well. I don’t know how definitive this list is, but its a good sketch at least:
    http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html
    They usually keep up w the years and such. Also have contracts for the teams, you can see the details of the clauses, most at least, that teams inc mets have. They’re SD fans. Anyway, for whatever its worth ARGON, and anyone else who would want it.
    Any chance Willie convinces to get his guy in Pettitte, that shit would be awesome, he is a very clutch lefty.
    They list Mulder also, but I thought he extended too, unless I’m thinking of Hudson. Anyhow, replacing Glavine should be easy. There are 4 good lefty starters next year.

  79. Comment posted by Wagner Dominant on January 16, 2006 at 11:54 pm (#24982)

    The Braves are going to win the division, so you guys do not even have to worry about it. I will send postcards from the playoffs again. This year we win it all.

    yea you guys have really improved, i mean there is no way you will choke this year but last time i checked your relying on prospects, lost your pitching coach, got no closer, and most importantly no fans.so have fun in the basement of the nl east

  80. Comment posted by Chipper Is Super on January 16, 2006 at 11:57 pm (#24983)

    Whoa, It only took 3 hours for someone to come back at me. Ha, any way every year we are suppose to suck, so why would it be diff this year?? Well we got youth on our side, with the right veterans. So please do tell me how the basement this year will be for you mets fans. Better hope Pedro doesn’t blow out his arm and that Glavine doesn’t pitch like he did in the beginning of last season.

  81. Comment posted by Wagner Dominant on January 17, 2006 at 12:20 am (#24984)

    go talk to the braves fans about how excited you are on your own site. you guys have more question marks than we do. at least we have a closer and i don’t recall larry being healthy for most of last season or anything to show for the titles in the past couple of years.

  82. Comment posted by Super T on January 17, 2006 at 12:30 am (#24989)

    Whoa, It only took 3 hours for someone to come back at me. Ha, any way

    Guess, he must of missed the memo that the rest of us were just ignoring you!

    Super T

  83. Comment posted by Chipper Is Super on January 17, 2006 at 12:45 am (#24991)

    Super T, First off, You are probably the LAST mets fan on this site that can ever try to act witty. I have read on most of these threads your stupid ideas, of how the mets are gonna miss Jae Seo and your love for your manager. For you to try to even come at me is funny when none of your fellow mets fan even respects you. SO you can try that again cause, you pretend to say you wanted to ignore me yet you responded.

  84. Comment posted by fire willie on January 17, 2006 at 2:05 am (#25001)

    So for a guy whose fly balls turn into home runs, Shea is ideal.

    James, I don’t know if you read this or not, but he DID give up 2 shot v Mets IN Shea last year to DMink and Carlos B, so your theory isn’t that strong for Weaver being ideal for Shea as far as his HR distribution goes.

  85. Comment posted by B-Dub45 on January 17, 2006 at 11:47 am (#25035)

    There was a time when Braves fans didn’t feel the need to come onto Mets sites and run their mouths. Apparently, that time has ended.

    Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Braves faithful (do such people even exist?) are reading the tea leaves and beginning to come to the realization that the end of the streak is upon us.

    While I do agree with him that Tim Hudson is better than any of our starters other than Pedro — when, exactly, was that in dispute? Along similar lines, I’m here to argue that John Smoltz is better than any of the Marlins starters, except Dontrelle.

  86. Comment posted by james on January 17, 2006 at 1:08 pm (#25041)

    Fire willie, it’s a bit of a reach to claim that Weaver’s 6 innings in Shea tell us much about whether he’d give up a lot of home runs here.

    I posted in part in response to the claim that since Dodger Stadium’s a pitcher’s park like Shea, Weaver’s numbers wouldn’t improve. I’m merely suggesting that since Shea supresses homers a lot more than Dodger Stadium, and Weaver’s a fly ball pitcher whose main weakness is homers, he might well do better than Shea.

    It should be noted that 2005 was a career-high for Weaver when it came to home runs. For 5-6 years before that, he’d given up around 15-20 home runs per year. His total nearly doubled, as did the percentage of fly balls that went out of the park. That screams fluke to me. Cut his home runs down to even, 25, still higher than recent years, and he’d probably give up 20 fewer runs, which would have put his ERA at 3.40 or so. FOr other reasons, he ERA would probably increase (more walks, etc.). As I said, he’s probably good for a high 3/low 4 ERA, or around league average.

    As to free agents in 07, there’s some (Zito, Mulder) better than Weaver for sure. My point was just that getting more than one in a single off-season is tough sledding, and that signing a guy like Weaver who is decent if not great might make it easier to just focus on getting one top notch starter next year, plus improve the pitching this year. I’d feel differently if Kazmir, Seo, Petit and even Hernandez were around, or if Heilman was likely to start, since that would give the Mets a much better chance of filling the slots in 07. But those avenues are gone, so that makes Weaver worth somewhat of a look to me. At $10 million or 4 years, I’ll pass, but at $7 and 3 years, I’m interested.

  87. Comment posted by fire willie on January 17, 2006 at 1:38 pm (#25048)

    James, thats cool. I’m still not sure what it worth, if anything. He did give up more HRs on the road, 19, last yr his previous high for a season, so maybe its a new trend. If you think RPete might help w it, it may throw other things out of whack, although keeping it down ususally is a good thing.

  88. Comment posted by marc on January 17, 2006 at 10:33 pm (#25101)

    Nice job–you’d think someone would take a chance on Weaver. If Pavano can get money, so can he.
    I think if he’s not signed soon, you could even get him pretty cheap. And relying on him as a
    5th starter is certainly much less pressure than at the front. Zambrano could be effective
    out of the bullpen, as if he walks the leadoff hitter you can just say “today’s not his day”
    and yank him right away. Otherwise, you’ll have a scary strikout combo of Zambrano/Sanchez/Wagner
    rivalling the nasty boys. Add in Heilman and Bradford as situational guys and that’s not too bad.

  89. Comment posted by fire willie on January 17, 2006 at 11:45 pm (#25109)

    Zambrano rivaling the nasty boys in terms of hit batsman, or k’s?

  90. Gravatar
  91. Comment posted by Adrienne on January 25, 2006 at 8:08 pm (#26123)

    I think Jeff Weaver should go to the Mets. He is a reliable pitcher and could be our answer in order to get us to the World Series. Pitching in NY might help him cause with players like Delgado, Wright, Lo Duca and Floyd, it might give him more confidence in knowing wat great players he has to back him up.

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