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January 6, 2006
Wayback Machine: October 4-5, 1999
Author’s Note: This is the second part in a weekly series that will chronicle the 1999 postseason run in detail. Part one can be found here. OCTOBER 4 — NEW YORK (96-66) AT CINCINNATI (96-66)
Game 163. Since the expansion of the playoffs in 1995 to include a Wild Card team, there had been two one-game playoffs, the most recent coming just last season at Wrigley Field when the Cubs behind Steve Trachsel defeated the Giants for the NL Wild Card. The starting time for this game had been originally set for 2:00 p.m. Eastern, but because of the late finish to the Reds game and the weather delaying the Mets arrival to Cincinnati, the game was pushed back to 7:00. By 7:15 the Mets had scored plenty of runs for Al Leiter. Leiter, who was considered to start game 162 at Shea on three days rest, instead took the hill at Cinergy Field and never gave it back. Edgardo Alfonzo ensured that there would be no drama. On the third pitch he saw from Reds starter Steve Parris, he launched a two-run home run over the centerfield wall to give the Mets a 2-0 lead they would never relinquish. It was his first career hit off of Parris in ten at-bats. In the sixth, Fonzie knocked home Rey Ordonez with a double to put the Mets ahead 5-0, the eventual final score. Alfonzo finished the season with a .304 average, 27 home runs, 109 RBIs and a 69.8 VORP — best among National League second-basemen. Alfonzo made the final out when Dmitri Young lined out with runners on the corners. Leiter two-hit the Reds. The Mets won four straight to end the season with 97 wins.
For the first time ever, the Mets and the cross-town Yankees qualified for the playoffs in the same year. John Franco’s 15-year streak without a postseason appearance was over. Bobby Valentine, after 1,714 major-league games managed, was finally headed to the postseason.
OCTOBER 5 — NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES GAME ONE — NEW YORK (97-66) AT ARIZONA (100-62) So much for the celebration. Just one day after clinching postseason play for the first time in 11 years, the Mets made a cross-country flight to Arizona, where the two-year-old Diamondbacks and Randy Johnson waited. The playoff roster still had to be finalized by Valentine. In a surprising move, Bobby Bonilla was added to the roster, despite just 12 at-bats since returning from the disabled list on September 3. Melvin Mora, almost guaranteed a spot after solid September play at the plate and in the field as a late-inning replacement for Rickey Henderson, made the roster with just 31 total at-bats in 1999. Luis Lopez, a utility infielder was left off along with pitchers Billy Taylor, Chuck McElroy and Bobby (White) Jones. Benny Agbayani, who did not play in 1999 until May 11, was inserted into the starting lineup, batting fifth against the powerful lefty Johnson. Valentine’s playoff rotation would stay intact from the regular season, even if it meant using five starters. Thus, the pitching matchups were to be Masato Yoshii against Johnson in Game 1, Kenny Rogers and Todd Stottlemyre in Game 2 and Rick Reed in Game 3 opposite Omar Daal. Yoshii was Valentine’s Japanese project for 1999. He was briefly dropped from the rotation in early August after the acquisition of Rogers, but nonetheless finished 12-8 with a 4.40 ERA. In September he started five games and went 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA. Still, with Hershiser and Rogers added to the starting mix, Yoshii was unsure of his inclusion in the postseason roster. Valentine not only put him on, but made him the first pitcher since Ron Darling to start a Mets playoff game. Much to the dismay of the city of New York and the entire eastern seaboard, Game 1 started at 8:00 p.m. Arizona time. Yes, the game was at 11 p.m. EST. It made for even better stories. Author’s Note: Through the magic of Retrosheet, we have play-by-play data for this game and each of the playoff games. You know what this means, a Win Probability Graph! The remainder of this series will attempt to track the ten 1999 Mets playoff games and truly assess who was the most and least (Do not fret, Ordonez nor Rogers will be spared.) valuable. As a guide to how I will score these games using Win Probability, I give you Dave Studeman’s (studes) work:
Yes, a loose guide, but it is how things will follow. Many of you are familiar with the WPA graphs from my earlier work during the 2005 season. New York Mets Arizona Diamondbacks 1. Henderson lf Womack rf 2. Alfonzo 2b Bell 2b 3. Olerud 1b Gonzalez lf 4. Piazza c Williams 3b 5. Agbayani rf Durazo 1b 6. Ventura 3b Finley cf 7. Dunston cf Frias ss 8. Ordonez ss Stinnett c 9. Yoshii p Johnson p 
Technically it happened well into Wednesday morning in New York, but Edgardo Alfonzo continued his clutch hitting to key the Mets to their first postseason win since October 11, 1988. If anything, the Win Probability Graph reinforces the fact that the Mets were lucky to escape Game 1 with a victory. All five of the most important at-bats according to p values, occurred in the top of the ninth. In the two most important at-bats, the Mets made outs, including one at the plate. Alfonzo’s grand slam off of Bobby Chouinard added 45.1% to the Mets’ chances of winning the game — a huge swing. Through five innings Yoshii threw a solid game. In the sixth, Jay Bell reached on a single and Luis Gonzalez homered to tie the game up at four, where it stayed until the ninth. The Cook-Wendell-Benitez trio pitched 3.2 innings for the Mets only giving up one hit and walking two. When in trouble, they were assisted by timely defense. Johnson smacked a double off of Cook in the seventh with one out, but Henderson turned a double-play on Johnson when Womack flied out to left and Henderson nabbed the Big Unit off of second. In the eighth, Wendell walked Gonzalez but then induced a double-play from cleanup hitter Matt Williams to end the inning. Olerud hit the first home run by a lefty off of Johnson in 1999 and Alfonzo continued his torrid pace as the Mets ensured at least a split in Arizona. Good thing, because just after Benitez recorded the final out, the Mets had to prepare for their sixth “postseason” game in six days.
WIN PROBABILITY ADDED
OFF PITCH FIELD WPA
Gonzalez 0.298 0.000 0.000 0.298
Finley 0.016 0.000 0.010 0.025
Durazo 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.019
Bell -0.011 0.000 0.017 0.006
Frias -0.083 0.000 0.000 -0.083
Johnson 0.018 -0.101 0.000 -0.083
Womack -0.103 0.000 0.006 -0.098
Stinnett -0.101 0.000 -0.008 -0.109
Williams -0.209 0.000 0.032 -0.176
Chouinard 0.000 -0.299 0.000 -0.299
Alfonzo 0.428 0.000 0.004 0.432
Cook 0.000 0.113 0.000 0.113
Mora 0.101 0.000 0.002 0.102
Olerud 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.100
Wendell 0.000 0.096 0.000 0.096
Ventura 0.069 0.000 0.000 0.069
Ordonez 0.020 0.000 0.021 0.042
Benitez 0.000 0.023 0.000 0.023
Dunston 0.008 0.000 0.007 0.015
Hamilton 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
Piazza -0.036 0.000 0.000 -0.036
Cedeno -0.081 0.000 0.005 -0.076
Agbayani -0.093 0.000 -0.001 -0.094
Henderson -0.141 0.000 0.022 -0.119
Yoshii -0.033 -0.137 0.003 -0.167
Footnote: Once again, an overview of Win Probability, Win Probability Added and P Critical Values can be found in Studes’ article, The One About Win Probability, over at The Hardball Times. 18 Responses to “Wayback Machine: October 4-5, 1999”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I remember being at game 1 and 2 of the met-dback game. B4 each game, the met players were so loose. Orel signed autographs for 45 minutes while John Franco was asking where the best pizza in phoenix is. I will also never forget the looks in the faces of dback fans when Olerud hit the homer off Johnson.
seriously, how amazing was eddie alf that year? its so weird to see him now…or even two years after…he really was something special
In 1999, Fonzie became my favorite Met of all time, and has remained such to this day. The guy was so clutch that whole year, until he puttered out in the Braves series. Still, he bounced back with a terrific 2000 before the injuries got ahold of him.
In my eyes, the guy can do no wrong. He’s the one player in all of baseball who could come to the Mets, hit .220 with four homeruns, collect his seven million dollars at the end of the year, and I’d still love him. What a great Met.
This series of articles looks to be a lot of fun. The 1999 postseason was one of the most exciting I can remember — even non-Mets fans have to agree that it was interesting, and this game was one big reason why. I had forgotten how Rickey-be-Rickey doubled Johnson off of second. Sweet.
Henderson didn’t so much “nab” Johnson at second. As I remember it, Johnson basically ran on contact, apparently thinking there were two outs. I don’t even think he made it back to third before he was doubled-up. Still, it was hilarious.
Good stuff here, but best of all in my opinion is the quote from Masato Yoshii. To this day me and my friends still get a laugh out of that line. I’ll be sure to pour some out for old Masato tonight.
Andrew, I mostly agree with you, but the problem I have with Fonzie is the “could have been.” He is one of those guys who never put in the effort to keep himself in shape, gained a ton of weight in the off season and screwed up his back - it is a huge shame. I honestly believe that if he had a decent off season work ethic, he never F-ups his back and is still playing 2B for us in the tail end of a hall of fame career. That guy could flat out play. I know he is washed up, but I was always pulling for a trade to bring him home! (Him and Mikey!)
Matt - these articles rock - the 1999 post season was more exciting than 1986 - keep up the good work!
Talk about weird timing.
Just about two weeks ago I started a blog over at fonzieforever.blogspot.com. He is my all-time favorite Met, and most likely will not be surpassed… even by DW. He did everything the way it should be done.
I’m glad to see that there are others out there who admired what he did asmuch as I did. I almost swore off the Mets the offseason they let him go.
Fonzie was my favorite Met for a long time, but once his health deteriorated, so did his approach. The Fonzie I loved only reappeared for a few weeks at a time after 2000. I was very sad to see him go, thought it was a bad move at the time, but as soon as he got off to that terrible start in S.F. I knew it had been the smart decision.
If Wright becomes the clutch hitter that Fonzie was, he will pass Edgardo before long in my book. If not, he might still pass him after another 4 seasons like his 2005.
Right now, Wright is on my favorite Met list behind only Fonzie, Rick Reed, Piazza, Leiter and Franco, just ahead of Bobby J. Jones, Turk and *gasp* Benitez. (I love Olerud too, he just isn’t locked in my mind as a Met.)
…and, going back a little farther, Cone and Sid.
I have to say DW is already my favorite Met (at least since Tug McGraw) - it has been a long time since I have seen a home-grown player with that much talent and that much fire.
I always thought Fonzie just hit those late twenties the way I did — the metabolism changes and *pow* the burger and fries stick around on the gut longer than they did when we were 25. I had a bout with salmonella or shigela a couple of summers ago, which knocked off twenty-five pounds quicklike. It might be just the thing for our less disciplined players — a dose of food poisoning to keep the weight down.
Not really. Something like that would also suck away some of their muscle strength, not just fat. They’d be better off keeping the weight than getting sick and dropping a lot of pounds.
Fonzie was a favorite of mine as well, and I still miss him even though I’m well aware he’s no longer the player he used to be. Really sad, because I too remember when he was an incredibly sound hitter who seemed to be silently on the path to greatness. Fonzie always seemed to drive the count up to 3-2 and then BAM, hit the ball the opposite way. It was a form of art, something that I’ve seen Piazza (although far less frequently now) and - surprise, surprise - Wright employ.
Wright is a favorite of mine. What’s even better is that not only does he have some of Fonzie’s ability to work the pitcher, but his overall skill is far superior to Alfonzo’s, even when the latter was in his prime seasons. Add work ethic to that, and Wright’s future is definitely bright (no rhyme intended).
For some reason, I liked Lance Johnson. I was younger at the time and a new Mets fan, so I guess I kind of imprinted onto him. He was fast, he could hit, and he was better than Butch Huskey, although that’s not saying much. Too bad age caught up with him so quickly, forcing us to watch Brian McRae for 2-3 years. Damn, I don’t even want to remember that.
Lance Johnson had one of the best Mets single seasons ever in 1996:
Hits - 227 (only met ever with over 200)
Runs - 117 (2nd highest single season total ever)
3B - 21 (Highest single season ever)
SBs - 50 (5th highest ever)
BA - .333 (3rd highest ever)
We dumped him in 1997 because we sucked and management thought McCrae would be a better player (scoff), but at least he brought back the Mad Turk! Oh, when we traded him in Aug 1997, he was hitting .309 with 43 runs and 15 steals in 72 games - so it wasn’t like he slowed down!
For his 1996 alone, he might have been one of the best FA signings in Mets history. In case you can’t tell, I always like him too!
Although, he dropped off pretty good after 96 - so maybe we sold him high. And in fairness, McCrae was a 20/20 guy in 1998 and played pretty damn good defense.
Wow “a friend of mr. glass that website is awsome!! jessica alba is my kind of girl!
Piazza will probably always be my all time favorite, as a lot of people say I look like him. I have to admit in the late 80’s (I was born in 81 so I don’t remember much of the mid 80’s), I really liked “Hall of Fame candidate” Gregg Jeffries! Don’t ask me why.
But one name we have seemingly forgotten about is Todd Hundley. I think it’s probably because Piazza came in right after him. But I was at the game where he hit the record-breaker off the immortal Greg McMichael. And my dad is a Braves fan who grew up in New York so that made it even better! I don’t know, maybe I have a thing for the #9.
Bobby Valentine has said that what happened to Fonzie was that the Yankees discovered and exposed his weakness trying to hit pitches high in
the strike zone and that once the rest of baseball then figured out how to pitch to him, his best days were behind him.
Fonzie’s one of my all-time Top Ten Mets as well, but we got most of the productivity there was ever going to be to get out of him.
[...] Author’s Note: This is the third part in a weekly series that will chronicle the 1999 postseason run in detail. Part two can be found here. [...]