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January 5, 2006
The Chosen One
Thoreau might well have been speaking of baseball prospects. From the first time a ballplayer picks up a glove or takes a few cuts with a bat they represent potential. Potential for big league greatness, for beer league supremacy, for batting cage dominance. Potential will follow a player until what is and what should be singularly coincide, or until what should have been and what really is drift so far apart that the potential is lost, escaped into the ether. As any loyal baseball follower surely knows, dozens of highly rated players make their way through a team’s minor league system, only to fall short of their potential for superstardom and wind up on the fast track to that coveted fourth outfielder spot or washing out of baseball altogether. For every Darryl Strawberry and John Matlack there are countless Steve Chilcotts and Terry Blockers. David Wright sure looks like one of those players that reach their potential. For all of the superstars that the Mets have collected in the past year plus, Wright could be the biggest reason to come out and see this team play. He has only spent a season and a half in the big leagues and already he has landed himself in elite company with his performance on the field. For starters, Wright has hit 41 homeruns in 838 at-bats, or one every 20.4 at-bats. He just turned 23 in December, and if he were to average one homerun per 20 at-bats, say 550 at-bats per season for 15 seasons, he’d have around 410 homeruns, which would currently rank third all time among third baseman, behind Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt (515) and Eddie Mathews (502). Wright is more than just power, though. He drew a good number of walks last year (72) and showed he could hit for average as well (.306). Here’s how his 2005 OPS of .912 compares with other third basemen since 1900 who had yet to celebrate their 23rd birthday: OPS YEAR OPS 1 Eddie Mathews 1953 1.033 * 2 Eddie Mathews 1954 1.026 * 3 Albert Pujols 2001 1.013 4 Dick Allen 1964 .939 5 David Wright 2005 .912 6 Bob Horner 1979 .898 7 Freddy Lindstrom 1928 .894 * 8 Buddy Lewis 1939 .879 9 Hank Blalock 2003 .872 10 Frankie Frisch 1921 .870 * .. 12 Eric Chavez 2000 .850 13 Scott Rolen 1997 .846 .. 18 Adrian Beltre 2000 .835 Dick Allen was only a third baseman for three full seasons, Pujols arguably for one season (he played 55 games at the hot corner in his rookie year of 2001, more than at any other position). Wright finds himself in pretty exclusive company to be sure, and significantly better than some of his contemporaries like Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre. According to Baseball Prospectus’ VORP metric, Wright was the 17th most valuable offensive player in baseball last season. VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, and represents “the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.” “Replacement” level is different for every position. Positions where offense is at a higher premium like catcher and shortstop have a lower “replacement” level than positions where offense is relatively easy to find, like left field, right field and first base. In general, offensive availability increases rightward along the defensive spectrum (1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C) and, conversely, the value of replacement level increases leftward along the defensive spectrum. Wright’s VORP of 66.1 trailed only Alex Rodriguez’ absurd 99.7 VORP among big league third basemen. Wright ranked 7th in the National League overall, trailing four firstbasemen (Lee, Pujols, Delgado and Helton) and two leftfielders (Bay and Cabrera). David Wright’s 2005 season compared favorably with others’ 2005 seasons, as well as with other 22-and-under third basemen in baseball history. It is no surprise, then, that he also dominates Mets-only leaderboards. Among Mets players younger than 23, Wright had more RCAA (Runs Created Above Average) last year than any player ever. In fact, he almost doubled the next best mark, Strawberry’s 20 RCAA in 1983. RCAA YEAR RCAA 1 David Wright 2005 38 2 Darryl Strawberry 1983 20 3 Darryl Strawberry 1984 19 4 Gregg Jefferies 1988 14 T5 Wayne Garrett 1970 13 T5 Gregg Jefferies 1990 13 RCAA is a very useful metric for comparing a player to the league average. Instead of comparing players to a hypothetical “replacement” level, RCAA uses an actual, easily-quantifiable value. RCAA is not position-specific, so the values are relative to the league average at all positions. RCAP (Runs Created Above Position) is similar to RCAA except that it does compare a player to the league average at his position. Wright looks even better according to this measure: RCAP YEAR RCAP 1 David Wright 2005 38 2 Darryl Strawberry 1983 18 T3 Gregg Jefferies 1988 14 T3 Ron Hunt 1963 14 5 Gregg Jefferies 1990 13 Wright actually had more RCAP than the next two guys on this list combined. In addition to his hitting, Wright has stolen 23 bases in 30 attempts (76.7%), and I expect this percentage to increase with time as he better learns the tendencies of pitchers and catchers and as he learns to take advantage of situational base stealing. His fielding is coming around, too. After a rough first half last season, Wright looked much more comfortable at third base in the latter portion of the year, and actually finished with he highest defensive Win Shares of any National League third baseman (4.8). It should be noted that ZR (Zone Rating) ranks him 7th (of 9) among NL third basemen. He’s not Eric Chavez and he probably never will be, but I think we can put to rest the ridiculous notion of moving him to first base that some harebrained announcer suggested earlier this year. What is clear is that Wright is a special kid. The best part is that he is still five solid years away from his prime, meaning there is every reason to believe that he will actually improve upon his historic performance thus far. Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner are great players, but when I head out to Shea this season it’ll be to watch The David Wright Show. We’ve all seen countless prospects burn out and fade away, but when a Darryl Strawberry or a David Wright comes along, you hold on tight and you enjoy the ride. References 137 Responses to “The Chosen One”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I know virtually nada about this guy (I can’t even recall ever seeing him pitch), but you gotta like his CAREER numbers against lefties (ok, the BB part is a bit high, but the guy keeps the ball in the park vs lefties):
99 IP
97 K
64 H
48 BB
5 HR
1.12 WHIP
.185 BAA
What Omar needs to do next is unload Matsui. Reports on various blogs have said that the Mets are willing to eat $5 million of his contract - but that’s not good enough to get a deal done. Therefore, Omar will have to bite the bullet and give someone $6MM to take him. Maybe in return we might be able to get a decent LOOGY or some good prospects to partially restock our farm system.
WD- Wunsch and Breslow, sure, the others pass on. Breslow would be good and Wunsch only if you trust Willie to play a LOOGY in his role, not v rhb.
i looked through every relief free agent lefty out there when i posted it so i thnk these are basically all the name but there might be acouple of people like liter listed as starter free agents
FW, do you know anything about Breslow? All I know is that he’s a 25-year-old lefty who walked 13 in 16 innings for the Padres last year.
Resigned to minor league deal with la
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20051221&content_id=1286185&vkey=pr_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Craig%20Breslow&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=444520
Breslow stats from AA, AAA, SD, and AFL.
I know he’s a local guy, from CT I think.
He is lefty but wasn’t used strictly as a loogy; but if he is, he’d be effective I think. In a SMALL sample, he only had a 063 BA v lhb and 0er. Still walked too much, but he’s young and capable.
theres been some talk about the mets not yet signing there first round pick Mike Pelfrey.
i came across a fun fact about pelfrey and found that his agent is none other than yes thats right “Scott Boras”
I think Breslow would be a nice little signing for us. low cost and high reward
Which is why he went as long as he did in hte draft. Tehy’re talking again now. It seems like the mets wait til after rule 5 (maybe?) to sign their better players so it (maybe?) doesn’t count as a year in the org. They started talking recently, journal news I think is the source; but thats not news about Boras being the rep, its part of why he was part of the picture in the first place.
I agree Chris, I was surprised we was nontendered, and I guess surprised noone has since jumped on signing him.
Geez, this sounds soooo gooood….
I’m curious about everyone’s opinion here on Mike Pelfrey, so I have a question for the group:
Where would you guys rank Pelfrey vs Petit and Gabby?
omar might not be done with the pen renovations but heres who i would put in
Wagner,Sanchez,Bradford,Heilman(hopefully zambrano instead),Juan Padilla,Mitch wylie and (unless no leftys are accquired)Royce Ring and (if he can stay healthy and if mets go 12P)Bartolome Fortunato
San diego believed that they could bring Breslow back with a minor league deal but it usually doesnt take this long for a guy to resign a minor league deal when he was non-tendered.
I dont think Ring will be our lefty. I think Perez or perisho have a better chance making the roster out of spring training. wylie has a outside chance of sticking with us and most likely will be beaten out by Fortunato or Bell
mf71 i think that hernandez doesn’t have much of a future and although petit looks like he can pitch i don’t think he will ever be that kind number 1 starter so i would have to say pelfrey might have the brightest future and the best pitch make up.
Do you see Pelfrey as a 2 or 3 starter? I’m cautiously optimistic Pelfrey will be a 2. Am I crazy?
If you’re crazy, then I am certifiable.
I’ve loved Pelfrey for awhile now, long before the Mets drafted him. I see a lot of Roy Halladay in the guy — his velocity, his repetoire, his pitch selection, his fearlessness, his ability to throw a ton of quality innings, his ability to throw the ball for strikes, and his ability to control the plate. One of my favorite quotes from any player ever is by Pelfrey and how he goes about facing a hitter:
He’s got all the makings of a future number one, in my opinion. Great stuff, great attitude, great projectability. I’m still surprised he’s a future Met.
look at the report on pelfrey i mean 6-7 with a mid 90s sinking fastball and a great change and an improving curveball. i think if no injuries occur and he has his head on good we could be talking a 2-3 starter in a year or two with glavine and trachsel probably not returning and then maybe pedro can give him some pointers and we could be talking about one of the games most dominant pitchers in 3 years
Cool, Andrew, then I’m not so crazy after all! :)
Okay, let’s just assume he signs next month (Feb), when can we reasonably expect him to crack the Mets rotation? I’ve read he won’t require a lot of minor league time, and that he could be here as early as 2007. Is that a reach?
That really depends on injuries. If all goes well injury-wise with Pelfrey, I could certainly see him being ready to crack the big league rotation in 2007. However, with the way the Mets build historically build their rotations through free agency, he’d have to be mighty, mighty impressive in 2006 to see action in 2007. I’d say a more reasonable estimation would be mid-2008.
Thanks Andrew! Let’s hope Pelfrey DOES stay healthy. The reports I’m reading on Pelfrey make me feel a lot better about losing Petit and Gabby (yes I know they’re all prospects, but still….)
And thanks, Wagner Dominant, for your input also!
Any time Mf71. I think if humber rebounds from his injury and im also very high on Alay Solar that by the time pedro leaves we may be able to have 3 great starters and even bannister so we could be talking about in about 3 years when all the big contracts (wagner,pedro,delgado run out not only a homegrown batting order but maybe 3 or 4 homegrown starters(not even including Heilman)now that would be sick maybe they don’t all turn out good(or Minaya trades them because he feels bored)but still thats good considering we have already given away two future starters in kazmir and hernandez
No one has ever projected Soler as more than a #3 type, so I think it’s somewhat doubtful that he’ll become “great”.
Bannister has been pretty good in AAA, and MANY mediocre pitchers have been pretty good in AAA — we’ll need to see more from Brian before getting too high on his future.
Humber’s overall college stats were very good but not jaw-dropping, although he did show an ability to dominate (a lot of Ks, I think). He hasn’t begun to prove whether he might be ace material, but before his surgery he looked like a good bet to at least be Brett Myers within a few years.
Pelfrey’s college numbers are pretty jaw-dropping, although his K rate, which would be great in the majors, doesn’t seem THAT impressive for a guy facing college hitters. He didn’t walk many and didn’t allow many homers. He’s huge, throws hard, and has no history of injury. I think he’ll be C.C. Sabathia at worst (and possibly soon), and has at least a shot to be an ace.
As for the guys we’ve lost:
Hernandez has proven nothing, pitching only at low levels. Petit, however, has proven more ability than any of the other pitchers on this list by dominating AA competition. And Kazmir has proven the most of anyone, being pretty effective against major leaguers this year.
Of course, no one has any idea who will actually have the best career, but I for one am crossing my fingers pretty damn tight.
WD & AH - How many times have you seen Petit and GHernandez? Just so we can qualify your judgment. And how many times have you seen Soler and Pelfrey? Were any of these live? And how much is from 2nd, third and fourth hand accounts? Thanks.
Seeing as I’ve only spoken about Pelfrey, I’m only going to comment on Pelfrey — I’ve seen him pitch live on three different occasions, and on television four. So seven times in total.
Nice, I have not seen him. Does his offspeed miss alot? Is he going to need alot of time working on location, more so than the excitement will immediately let on? Thanks.
I ask bc thats what I read via 2nd, 3rd, and 4th hand accounts. Thanks.
Pelfrey’s fairly polished and has solid control already, so I don’t imagine he’ll need much time at all to get adjusted to the minor league game. He’s got two offspeed pitches — a nice changeup that’s already considered a Major League pitch, and a curveball that will need some work, though got him by in college ball. He throws between 92 - 96, so his stuff is already there.
I haven’t seen anybody else say anything about this, but from watching him I personally think he relies too much on his fastball. It’s hard and it moves, so it ate college hitters alive, but once he gets to AAA and the big leagues he’s going to have issues if he continues with that gameplan.
But my guess is that’ll be the first thing that’s changed once he signs — to rely more on his change and to continue to develop that curve. If all goes according to plan, he’ll be a good one.
Argon the guy was 4th worst bb/9 in the NL, improved or not, he still shlitty.
Also he’s 4th worst in sb allowed in NL, that means ball four takes 2nd.
As far as coming to the ballpark and finding out “It’s not Pedro” goes… One of the early games I went to last season I was hoping for a Pedro start (It would have involved skipping the #5, but they’d had a day off…)
Alas, all they had starting was Aaron Heilman, and all he did was make the entire Marlins lineup look silly for a full game.
A half-decent second baseman away from possibly the first no-hitter in team history. *sigh*
D - the best game all year.
Well, those who strive for optimism can look at VZ’s final 117 innings, in which he only walked 43. That 3.3 per 9 rate is right around the ML average.
nypost has an article about david today.
it is about him being home.
his dog (a new yorker) freaked when he saw grass. :)
You’re right argon, lets hope this guy can wind up being average.