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October 17, 2005
The Free Agent Files: Closer
The following is a record of the top closers in the Free Agent market this offseason. Though not originally planned out this way, it pretty much goes in the order the Mets are most likely to follow, going from their first choice to their last. The list is pretty self-explanatory. Note: not included below are Bob Wickman (who has said he’s either re-signing with the Indians or retiring), Eddie Guardado (who has both a team and a player option on his contract this season) and Octavio Dotel (who won’t be returning to baseball until, at least, mid-June). Also not included are Braden Looper and Matt Mantei, for obvious reasons. Enjoy. Name: Billy Wagner Wagner is the Cream of the Closer Crop. Arguably on the way to his second Rolaids Relief Award, and armed with an overpowering 100 MPH fastball and a hellacious high-80’s slider, Wagner is about as close to a sure thing at the end of the game as there was this season. At the age of thirty-four Wagner enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career, striking out 87 in 77.7 IP (10.1 K/9), while walking twenty (2.3 BB/9). Holding opposing hitters to a batting average of .165, Wagner got the job done, amassing thirty-eight saves while blowing only three — or five less than what Braden Looper blew. It should also be noted that when outside the Homer-Friendly confines of Citizen’s Bank Park, Wagner pitched to an ERA of 0.90, allowing three runs off of twelve hits in thirty innings. Scary. Still, Wagner is thirty-four and has a history of injuries. He missed the majority of the 2000 and 2003 seasons with various ailments (back spasms, strained rotator cuff, shoulder, groin, inflamed finger, etc.). It should be noted that Wagner rededicated himself to steering clear of injuries last offseason, and made it through the entire year injury-free. Wagner also did not endear himself to the Philadelphia faithful — though that’s not much of a surprise — because he called them out for booing the team. In the same vein, Wagner has a long history of openly complaining to the media when things aren’t going well with the team, something that carried over from his days in Houston. Despite this Wagner is considered a good teammate, and has never been rumored to be a clubhouse cancer. The fact remains that Wagner is an excellent pitcher, not just a thrower. If the Mets are looking to make the playoffs next season, they desperately need somebody to slam the door at the end of games, especially if they don’t make a move for a big hitter in the offseason. Outside of Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge, Wagner may be the most dominant, and healthy (sorry, Eric Gagne), closer in baseball. He won’t come cheap, but he could certainly be the answer the Mets have been searching for at closer since… ever? Name: B.J. Ryan Finally handed the keys to the closer car this season, Ryan did not disappoint. Appearing in sixty-nine games, Ryan threw 70.3 innings and held hitters to a .208 batting average. Even more impressive is his splits against lefties and righties. While Ryan held lefties to a line of .211/.284/.352, he managed to hold righties to a line of .206/.282/.265, meaning it doesn’t matter how you swing, you’re gonna have trouble against him. BJ also struck out an even one hundred, for a ridiculous 12.8 K/9 rate, while walking 26 (3.3 BB/9). Ryan’s got some nice natural movement on both of his pitches: a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, and a ridiculous sharp breaking slider. When he’s on, he’s as unhittable as they come. Really, there’s not much to dislike about Ryan. He does have a reputation of being very emotional, and this did get to him on the mound a few times this season. But what’s really the biggest question mark is the amount of money Ryan will command. BJ’s gone on record saying that he would have no problem returning to the setup role that he excelled in in past years, as long as he was pitching for a winner (ie: the Yankees or Red Sox, two teams that have large payrolls and need bullpen help). He also has stated, however, that he’d have no problem pitching for a New York team. If it simply comes down to a bidding war, the Yankees more than likely have the upper hand, though the Mets can offer Ryan something the Yanks can not: a chance to close out games for a playoff-contending team. Name: Trevor Hoffman There’s no doubt that Hoffman gets the job done. This past year he passed former Met John Franco on the All Time Saves list, amassing 436 in his thirteen year career — and only 42 behind leader Lee Smith. Though he’s undergone two surgeries on his shoulder, Hoffman has somehow remained a consistent closer, making the proper adjustments year in and year out to stay at the top of his game. He by no means has overpowering stuff, as he relies on a high-80’s fastball, an average slider, an average curve, but perhaps the second best changeup in the league (behind Pedro Martinez). Hoffman’s reliance on command and so-so stuff doesn’t translate to overpowering punch-outs: he struck out 54 in 57.7 IP (8.4 K/9), though his command is exceptional, only walking 12 (1.9 BB/9). He also managed to hold opponents to a .235 batting average. Hoffman is as unflappable as it gets on the mound, and has been in the Top Ten in the saves category for eleven of his twelve years at the position. Yet, there are a lot of big negatives against Hoffman. For one, he’s thirty-eight years old, which means the Mets need to be absolutely convinced they can compete if they’re looking to sign Hoffman. Secondly, he’s said to be asking for Mariano Rivera money — though he won’t likely find a ballclub willing to give it to him. Still, this shows that Hoffman won’t be coming cheap. Also, much like Braden Looper, Hoffman had troubles against lefthanders this season. While he held righties to a mind-boggling .179/.213/.316 line, lefties teed off on Hoffman to the tune of .298/.342/.375. Hoffman would make an excellent setup man, but by all indications he has no desire to go down that road just yet. While Hoffman manages to find ways to close out games every year, it doesn’t look like he’s a match for the Mets. Name: Kyle Farnsworth Farnsworth had long been considered the Closer of the Future for the Chicago Cubs due to two overwhelming fastballs: a four-seamer that is dialed up around 100 MPH, and a two-seam sinker that clocks in at an awe-inspiring 96. But Farnsworth was never able to find a secondary pitch that would make him unhittable until this year when he developed a decent, quick breaking slider. Combining the two, Farnsworth put up the best season of his career, pitching for both the Detroit Tigers and Atlanta Braves. In seventy innings Farnsworth struck out eighty-seven (11.2 K/9), though he sometimes struggled with his command, allowing twenty-seven free passes (3.5 BB/9). Opponents hit a measly .180 off him, with righthanders going .165/.237/.220 off him. Though he held lefties to a .197 batting average, they managed an on-base percentage of .301, due to seventeen walks and a hit batter in 117 at-bats. Most fans, as well as some General Managers, are starting to grow wary of signing Braves pitchers after terrific seasons, but there is some consolation in the fact that Farnsworth was pitching very well for the Tigers before the trade. Leo Mazzone did get him to cut back some on his walks, and Farnsworth went 10-10 as the closer for the Braves — that is, until the postseason, ha ha!. Still, plenty of people feel that Farnsworth doesn’t have enough of a record of success that the Braves will pay him what he’ll eventually be offered by other teams. While Farnsworth’s past is filled with shaky command and scary numbers, the development of his slider may have actually turned him into a different pitcher. If the Mets miss out on Wagner and Ryan, he wouldn’t be a bad option for a team needing some strikeouts at the end of the game. And, hey, eventually somebody needs to succeed after leaving Atlanta, right? Name: Todd Jones After traveling to Rosedale, Mississippi under the full moon at midnight, Todd Jones sold his soul to the Devil in exchange for some pitching ability. Now, Jones — who hadn’t really been a reliable reliever since 2000 — is in the free agent market once again, looking to capitalize on a nice year at closer. And, really, it was a nice year. Jones appeared in sixty-eight games, throwing seventy-three innings, while striking out sixty-two (7.6 K/9) and walking a miniscule fourteen (1.7 BB/9). He also managed to close out forty games (along with five blown) despite taking over the closer’s role at the beginning of May. Jones, known as one of the most prepared pitchers in baseball, is no longer capable of throwing his fastball in the high-90’s, therefore relying on a low 90’s fastball and a quick breaking slider, while also hurling the occasional changeup and curveball. Still, Jones is thirty-seven — turning thirty-eight next April — and this could very well be a fluke season for the guy. This was without a doubt the best season of his career, posting career lows in walks, hits, earned runs, runs and homeruns. Most revival seasons are the result of a lack of injury or reinventing yourself, but Jones has done neither. He has approached the game with the same plan as he always had, which could very well spell a return to his previous numbers. Also of note would be his late season collapse: through September and October he pitched a total of thirteen innings, allowing nine runs on eighteen hits. Seeing that Jones is reportedly looking for a two year deal worth between five and six million, it might be best for the Mets to let somebody else run the risk on Jones. Name: Tom Gordon Gordon, seeking his last big payday, has stated that if the Yankees aren’t interested, he’d like to return to closing elsewhere. However, upon further inspection, it would appear he’s already made up his mind — “I had a great time being a setup here. I enjoyed every day with Mo. I still have in my mind that if I got an opportunity again to close that I want to do that. Closing’s always going to be a first choice for me.” And, honestly, Gordon still has the stuff to get the job done. He’s been a closer before — 46 saves and book by Steven King with the Boston Red Sox in 1998 — and over the past three years he’s been one of the top five best setup men in baseball. Flash features three above-average pitches: a mid-90’s fastball, a nice slider, and an excellent curveball. He’ll also throw a decent cut-fastball as well as a rarely seen changeup. Utilizing these pitches, Gordon gave up only fifty-nine hits in 80.2 innings pitched, striking out sixty-nine (7.7 K/9) though walking twenty-nine (3.2 BB/9). Gordon was turned into a setup man by the Cubs after a penchant for blowing saves and his second serious elbow injury in three seasons. Gordon has bucked those injuries now, appearing in the second most games in 2004 and the third most in 2005. But the blown saves issue may still exist — this season he went 2-9 in save opportunities, as well as struggling in his second straight postseason appearance. A case probably could be made that Gordon might not have the intestinal fortitude to close out games — though whether that even exists is debatable. Still, Gordon has pitched so long in a setup role that it’s fairly unlikely the Mets — or any other big market team — will be looking to him as a closer. Unless all other options are nonexistent, Gordon will more than likely stay with the Yankees or be closing for a team like the Orioles next season. Name: Ugueth Urbina Urbina is a strange pitcher, in so much as he can’t be counted on in pressure situations, he doesn’t throw particularly hard, and he has below-average command — yet, everywhere he goes he’s always given a spin as a closer. Urbina’s fastball, which used to be in the high-90’s, now resides in the high-80’s to low-90’s. He couples that with a nice, deceptive changeup and a pretty poor slider. He can be counted on to stay healthy, as his 79.7 innings out of the pen last season will indicate. And though he does still get his strikeouts, ninety seven of ‘em (11.0 K/9), he will walk the ballpark as well (thirty-nine walks, good for a 4.4 BB/9). Urbina is intent on returning to closing next season, which means that unless Billy Wagner winds up elsewhere, Urbina will be leaving the Phillies. Still, Urbina may be on to something with his insistence to return as a closer. In that role with the Tigers last season he went 10-10 in his save opportunities, holding opponents to a .191 batting average. Still, Urbina is a pretty steep drop from the aforementioned names, mostly due to his inability to throw strikes. If Urbina could command the strike zone better he would have terrific potential in the closer role, but right now the Mets signing him would be a lateral move at best. 21 Responses to “The Free Agent Files: Closer”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Wagner then Ryan in that order. The others are to risky or they aren’t any better than what we have in house(Heilman). If heath bell can transfer what he learned this year he may be an in expensive asset in the 7th or 8th inning.
I’m with Steve. Unless Flash Gordon or Kyle want to be set-up men, only the first two closers interest me and I, frankly, don’t think the Mets get either of them.
Word has it Wagner will resign, using all that nonsense as a bargaining ploy. Ryan will go to the Yanks for a myriad of reasons; money, Guidry, money, Mariano, money, and a chance to win.
Hoffman only for a one year deal. I don’t want Farnsworth anywhere near the Mets. Thbis guy is an arm injury waiting to happen plus he has been known as a player that mentally can’t take pressure. He pitched the majority of his games in a pitchers park yet he has a career ERA over 4.20. I want either Ryan or Wagner. I also have been in love with the LH closer.
As long as they go out and get either Wagner and/or Ryan, it’ll make things bearable w/o such a nasty draft. Someone to close the door gives the starters more confidence, and may preserve the investment in Pedro who seemed reluctant to come out to watch his W turn to nothing. I think they should see if there is another arm, a lefty, maybe like Eischen, although I don’t know more than his showdowns w. Floyd, to help the pen. Then hopefully Yates, who I always think is bound to be good, Moreno, or Fortunato can stick. Although if they got Farnsworth to setup, that too would be a welcome sight in Shea.
Anyone heard anything on the rehab of Yates, Fortunato, Moreno, Humber or the Visa delay with Soler?
I’m not convinced that a closer is so valuable that I’d pay $10 million a year for one. I’m as frustrated as anyone when I see a game slip away in the last inning. But, when you total up wins and losses at the end of the season, is it any worse than losing the game in the eighth or seventh or sixth? That is, psychologically, it FEELS bad, but mathematically, is it worse? Which disappointment is greater: eight blown saves or not going to the playoffs because fifteen games were blown in the seventh? If we can agree that one always wants the offense to score in every half inning and the pitching and defense to prevent runs in every half inning, then why so much focus on the ninth? I don’t want a closer — a guy like Gordon, whose attitude is that he doesn’t want to play on a winning team because he wants to pitch only in the ninth. I don’t want a guy who doesn’t want to pitch in the seventh, if I ask him to. I want team pitchers. They’re cheaper, I’ll wager, and better over the long run.
I agree on a few things being said. After Wagner or Ryan the field is pretty slim. The players left over would make good setup men, but they aren’t the guy you want to hand the ball to in the 9th inning. The playoff teams have proven that you need a complete bullpen though. Adding Billy Wagner is useless if we don’t have 4 other strong pitchers to get us through the 7th and 8th inning to get to him in the 9th. I would love to see Wagner and Heilman in the bullpen. I would also like to see Urbina or Gordon brought in as a setup man. I would also love to see a couple of the young guys brought up and be allowed to pitch and learn and build up some confidence.
My vote if for Ryan over Wagner. Ryan is younger and does not have health issues. Signing a reliever for big dollars only to see him lost for a season would be crippling for the Mets. They need youth and dominance in a closer, and shouldn’t be afraid to commit to a longer term contract. I do think a good closer is worth the money. It creates a psychological edge that goes beyond measurements in wins or losses to have a top closer in the pen. Teams will change their game plan to try and win in the 7th or 8th inning, and will be mostly resigned to loss if the game gets to the 9th inning. This isn’t the case when you have a scrub like Looper, whom they almost welcome (particularly if there was a lefty in the lineup).
I’m agreeing with the crowd Wagner, BJ fine, after that it’s a slippery slope. This should make Heilman virtually untouchable because he is our closer insurance policy.
i want ryan and farnswoth here now!! lol i know im greedy…
Tonight’s game only proves that NO closer, however dominant, is unbeatable. Pujols just crushed it!
Yeah Wagner is my first choice too; he’s the bullpen equivalent of Pedro, a slight, fragile guy who’s somewhat injury prone that can throw the crap out of the ball AND make a pitcher’s pitch depending on the situation. And if the Mets sign him, I think he’ll have the same impact on the ‘pen next season that Pedro had on the rotation this season. What gives him the edge over Ryan for me is that he’s been dominant over a longer period of time and is unquestionably one of the top 5 at his position in the game…and after years of untrustworthy/inconsistent vessels from Franco, to Benitez, to Looper, wouldn’t it be nice to have a guy you just KNOW will shut teams down in the 9th inning?
I am with Anthony on this. I live in Northern VA, so I get to watch Ryan a lot. Ryan relies on a deceptive delivery to get hitters out. He hides the ball well, but he most certainly does not have dominant stuff. He also blew most of his saves this past season against the Yankees and Red Sox, which tells me that he may not be ready to be a closer for a contending team. Relievers, specifically closers, without dominant stuff tend to go in and out of effectiveness. Wagner may be an injury risk, but he is much more likely to be a dominant closer with the Mets when healthy. Ryan has been a closer for all of one season. If we are going to roll the dice with someone inexperienced at the closer position, why not do so with Heilman, who would be cheaper and has better pure stuff (and in my mind, would likely be more effective). Go get Wagner.
I vote for a comittee, untill some one EARNS the job. That said I want Todd Jones and BJ Ryan.
Loop, is done ditto for Heredia….(who was never here). That $$$ gets spun into Ryan and Jones.
To begin the season BJ and Heilman split oppurtunities with Hernandez and Jones setting up. Note Ryan and Heilman make a potentially dminant L-R combo.
A more poignant question is who then fills the role Wheeler had (and has in Hou) and Turk used to have. We need a 7th inning guy. Padilla has that job presently.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2195137
imagine how bad the hit machine would be if he wasnt on the sauce.
Ryan at 6′6″ and 29 looks like a more sound investment than Wagner at 34 and 5′11″. On the other hand does it really matter who we get, Billy, BJ, Kyle, ……Willie is still gonna screw things up.
He’s not gonna trust anyone under 35,(Bell and Heilman) overuse Hernandez, mismanage the lefty/righty/double swithches and generally make our lives miserable.
Speaking of free agents has any team contacted Piazza yet?
I’m continually shocked at baseball’s obsession with a “closer,” especially one like Billy Wagner. Did Todd Jones or Derek Turnbow tell any of us anything this year? I understand that the Mets have a ton of money. Fine. If the team’s really going to go after “THE” closer then it should be (my view) BJ Ryan…without question. He’s younger, more durable (to this point!), cheaper (well, less expensive), and has sicker stuff than Wagner. I’m a BJ Ryan homer, yes I am, but for $20-some million…well, I’m going to have to think about that.
The team’s at a crossroads. I’ve written to this point before and I really don’t think that Minaya has to either sell the farm (literally) or to sign overpriced guys like Wagner, Konerko, or Burnett to make the team THAT much closer to the NL East title. The Mets need a strong bullpen (that’s USED PROPERLY). Okay, that’s clear. However, the Mets don’t have to spend a ton of money to construct a bullpen that’ll work. If you don’t believe me, well, look around MLB and you’ll see plenty of teams with successful bullpens consisting of guys whose names we don’t readily know (e.g. Scot Shields, JJ Putz, Mr. Turnbow, Hermanson, Jenks, Eyre). Let’s hope that Minaya knows this and constructs a solid bullpen and not an overpriced mess.
Ramon Hernandez is fine, but, I believe that he’s a horrible defensive catcher. Consider, just consider, keeping most of what we have. Hell, just a thought here, but why not let Jacobs and Diaz have a working platoon at 1B, keep Cameron in RF, sign some stud relievers (Eyre or Farnsworth or Tavarez [nut case]). Maybe even go out of a limb and trade Matsui to the Giants for Alfonso and put the fat man at 2B and pray that he likes his return to NYC.
This is a pretty bad free agent class and I for one don’t want the Mets to bring the vast majority of ‘em anywhere near Flushing.
Reyes
Beltran
Wright
Floyd
Cameron
Alfonso
Jacobs/Diaz
Castro
Pitcher
That looks pretty good to me.
Kent, I don’t know about BJ Ryan having sicker stuff than Billy Wagner — Ryan typically throws in the low to mid 90’s while Wagner’s clocked in the high 90’s, and both throw terrific sliders — so going on that alone, Wagner would probably have the leg up on the stuff-o-meter, but opinions are opinions and I haven’t seen a ton of Ryan, so I’ll respect yours.
However, I can’t possibly figure out how you think Ramon Hernandez is a “horrible defensive catcher”. He’s one of the absolute best in baseball in blocking balls in the dirt, has a solid arm, and frames pitches so well that every game I’ve seen he’s got at least two or three balls called strikes. And, though it’s not really defense, it should be noted that almost every team he catches has been in the Top 15 in Team Pitching ERA.
If you don’t like him for his hitting, that’s one thing, but when it comes to defensively, quite frankly, the guy is good.
And for all those who complain about his offense — it should be noted that after he returned from surgery, the guy had five homeruns, twenty RBI’s and a .349/.388/.605 line in eighty-three at-bats. Not bad at all.
How anybody would consider Wagner for $10 million a season to throw 50 - 70 innings is unfathomable to me. BJ Ryan at half the cost of Wagner is certianly a better solution, but even he is overpriced at $5 million per. They should look for some relievers on the cheap, and lower the ticket prices. That makes infinitly more sense.
Also, they should stay away from catchers about to enter their decline, i.e. Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez. Let Jacobs platoon with Diaz at first and back up Castro behind the plate.
Oh, and of course they should fire Willie.
I wrote and I think that Hernandez would be fine, as in a fine choice. I failed to mention him on my mock line-up. I may have an certain affinity for a West Coast team and may have seen Hernandez play a number of games over the last couple of years. I think that his offense is also fine, as in pretty damn good. You and I will just have to disagree on his defense. Then again the Mets have a recent history of poor defensive catchers who hit like champs: Piazza vs. Matheny…I’ll go with Mike…the first one! I’m sorry though, I don’t buy the argument that Hernandez should be credited with his team’s ERA. The A’s and Padres have very good and pretty deep pitching staffs, with or without Hernandez behind the plate (e.g. the A’s this season).
My real point, which I shortened to make a post is the necessity to find (and spend a hell of a lot of money for) a “closer.” The Mets have the money to sign one if they choose to do so. That’s fine, but, as I wrote, I’m going to have to look a bit more at both of them before I determine (for myself) that $20 million for either of ‘em will be worth it.
Unbelievable, really. Stay away from Urbina, this guy is insane.
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/12938611.htm
This may make Philly push even harder for Wagner since Ugie is their backup plan. This is too much.