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June 30, 2005
Minor Talk
If you are reading this, chances are that you know who Yusmeiro Petit is. Not only that, but you also know that his numbers are as good as any pitcher in the minor leagues. After battling for the minor league strikeout crown with White Sox prospect Brandon McCarthy last year, Yusmeiro has now moved to the AA level and he hasn’t slowed down. He is still dazzling hitters with his deceptive delivery and moving fastball (10.04 K/9 or 24.9 percent of batters faced) while also exhibiting his fantastic control (1.21 BB/9). However, there’s one thing that hasn’t exactly translated. After not allowing a HR in his last 56 innings during his stints at the FSL and Eastern League last year, the Venezuelan right-hander has now given up seven long balls in 52 innings this year. Obviously, before making any conclusions about these numbers, some disclaimer about small sample has to be made. Fifty two innings is not really a big or meaningful sample and HR/9 rates can be somewhat random. Now with that out of the way, we can ask ourselves what is causing this? One assumption we can make is that Petit isn’t fooling as many hitters he did at A ball, and as a result, he’s giving up more hits and more homeruns. That was to be expected, AA hitters are better than single A hitters. Not only that, but he’s also pitching in a much more difficult environment. As I’ve mentioned before, the Eastern League is a hitters league and not surprisingly HRs rise there. In fact, the league inflates HR’s by around 5% as compared to AA as a whole. And as if this were not enough, NYSEG Stadium also inflates this rate another 3%.
HR/9 AB/HR
League: 0.82 38.0
B-Mets: 0.87 39.4
Petit: 1.21 29.9
As you can see, Petit has given up more home runs than the average pitcher in the Eastern League and the average B-Met pitcher. Why is this important? Well because according to Dayn Perry, low HR/9 (as opposed to strikeout rates and command ratios) might be the best indicators of future success for minor leaguer pitchers and Yusmeiro doesn’t have one. Does that mean he’s not going to be an excellent pitcher later on? No. This just means that he’s human like all of us. Moreover, despite this blip on the radar, he still projects to be great. According to Clay Davenport’s PDTs, a projection of how pitchers will perform at their peak in the majors based on their 2005 stats, Yusmeiro Petit, between the ages of 27 and 31, will put up stats that will make anyone drool: H/9 7.2 Yep, he’s a keeper. Speaking of home runs and stats that would make anyone drool, Brett Harper was finally promoted to AA-Binghamton yesterday. Press & Sun-Bulletin’ B-Mets’ reporter Scott Lauber also mentions that Harper and Jacobs will split time at first base and DH and that the latter will begin to catch more. 17 Responses to “Minor Talk”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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BTW, I love how I identified a problem, wrote two paragraphs on it, and then simply dismissed it. Pulitzer prize, here I come!
So he’s allowing 1.21 HR/9 right now in Double-A but is projected for only 0.20 HR/9 in the majors in 2010? And is HR/9 really more important in the minors than K/9 and K/BB? I find that a little difficult to accept.
I had a quick scan through Davenport’s article and it looks interesting.
I’m glad Harper was promoted, but what possible reason can the Mets give for leaving Jacobs at Binghamton? They have no major-league prospects at first base or catcher playing in Norfolk. If jacobs is going to catch more, let him catch in AAA ball.
I think Jacobs will get the call up to Norfolk for the second half - they really need to scrap the 1B experiment.
I don’t know about Petit. I want the kid to succeed and be a top of the rotation starter at Shea - but as a life long Mets fan I have to live in a world of doubt. Not only is he giving up the most HRs of his career, but his ERA - while still very respectable (2.77?) - is far and away the highest of his career.
How does this bode for his future? I do not know - obviously the better the quality of hitters, the harder it will be for his “hide the ball well” routine to work. I still think we try to sell high here - if we can make a blockbuster for a young, big time bat - like Dunn - Omar should be all over it!
2.77 being the highest is is every been and an a league full of offensively charged stadiums, is not a big concern. He was not going to post an ERA in the 1’s forever.
But I agree. I’m for selling him now and getting a young guy in return. The Mets are deep there.
If anythign scares yu about Petit you have to remember that he’s only 20 years old, which is the same as a college junior, we’ll just leave it at that.
Unless the Mets have a serious hard-on for Ramon Hernandez, Jacobs should be moved back to catcher immediately at least giving them another option for 2006.
As far as I’m concerned, the only untouchable guys in our minor league system should be Milledge and Pelfrey. Everyone else is expendable for the right price - Tex, Dunn, Shoppach, etc., basically anyone who isn’t Sheffield.
Interesting stuff about Petit. I like the idea behind Davenport’s system, but if you look at the projections for Wright and Diaz (guys we know well), especially in terms of BA, it seems like he’s got it backwards, so I’m not sure how much I trust the numbers.
I’m still learning all this Saber stuff though. What’s DERA?
The ADAM DUNN Market has officially started. Someone please let the leader of our New Mets know that he can play 1B for the next 10 years in queens. Imagine Dunn’s Monstorous Lefty bat @ Shea.
Get the word out ASAP before our rivals snatch him!!! Take care guys.
LETS GET ADAM DUNN
All those good #’s on Petit seem like good trade bait to me. Please forward them to the Cinn front office. Thank you METSGEEK!!!
I like Petit but, you have to take in to account that the Mets have not developed a starting pitcher in years (was Bobby Jones the last?)-and minor league stats shouldn’t lead us to believe that Petit will be the one who breaks that mold.
Keep in mind that his deceptive delivery didn’t fool anyone on the Marlins in spring training - who am I kidding, he could have thrown a no-hitter and Willie would have said he hasn’t proven anything and Kaz Ishi is still his man.
Does anyone know what’s going on between those two?
Also, why is everyone so high on Dunn? Yes, he has tremendous power and a high obp but, don’t the 175K’s scare you? I mean the the biggest problem the Mets have had over the years is getting runs in. Time and time again, you see the Mets get on base only to come away empty. Part of the problem is making contact and getting “productive outs” or moving the runners over or for God sake-getting hits. If you have Reyes/Wright/Beltan on first, a double brings them home-a strike out kills the rally. You can’t sit on Dunn or someone else to hit bombs every at bat. I think Overbay would be a better fit for the Mets offence or lack thereof.
Plus, Dunn can hit 45-50 bombs at the Great American Ball Park but, how do you think those numbers would translate at Shea? Of Dunn’s 20 Hrs this season, 15 are at home, 3 at Citizens and 2 at Wrigley. Aside from Colorado, the 3 most hitter friendly parks in the NL.
Hang it up guys, we all know our front office has no clue. They can sign fat checks with the best of them, but when it comes to actual roster management they have no clue.
I’m so fed up with watching Ishii and then seeing Seo’s lines in Norfolk, I MEAN COME ON ALREADY. Enough is enough. Seriously their roster management is just mind boggling.
We waste a nice year out of Keppinger and now we are gonna do the same Seo? I am getting pretty fed up, can you tell?
This Ishii thing with what Seo is doing is just so beyond ridiculous.
Tex, Dunn, Shoppach, etc.
One of these is not like the others. Shoppach hit 233/320/461 at AAA last year. I wouldn’t get excited about him.
I wouldn’t worry about ERA in the minors. Its basically worthless. Other than this high HR rate, which could be just a fluke, nothing on Petit’s record indicates he’s not going to be a successful major league pitcher. Is he going be an ace? I doubt it. That’s not really a mark against Yusmeiro. I mean, there is only what, 10 “aces” in all of baseball. As for the whole deception not working in the major leagues…have you seen Pedro pitch at all this year? The guy hardly breaks 90 mph and he leads the NL in strikeouts. Obviously I don’t expect Petit to become the best pitcher in baseball, but they both are similar pitchers. They get a ton of strikeouts, they are flyball pitchers, and they have fantastic control.
Would I trade him for Dunn? Probably, but I would trade pretty much any pitching prospect for him.
I’d trade Petit and Milledge in one second for Dunn.
Shoppach clearly isn’t at their level, I was just making an example of someone useful and potentially available. His OBP was also respestable despite the bad average. He still strikes out too much, probably needs another year at AAA to fix that. Haha I’m starting to think you don’t like me very much OFF.
The only reason I wouldn’t trade Milledge is because Cameron and Floyd, much as I love them, both have only a year and a half left and aren’t getting any younger. We’re going to need new outfielders to complement Beltran soon, and it’d be nice if at least one could come out of our system
Its not that. I just don’t think Shoppach is worth the trouble of dealing with Theo.
Petit and Seo for Dunn. There, I said it: I’m willing to trade Seo.
But only for Dunn!