A WPA breakdown player-by-player on each team

If it makes the crushing defeat any easier to swallow, the game provided a really neat Win Probability graph. In the scheme of compiling these outcomes, one basically lives for a situation like what was encountered Sunday night. Jason Giambi came to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with a P critical value of .745, the highest possible value that can be obtained in any situation in any game.

Too bad Braden Looper was on the mound.

Actually, check that. It did not matter who was on the mound once Giambi’s at-bat came around. Perhaps better preventive actions could have been taken in the sequence that led to Giambi’s second awakening.

Five Most Important At-Bats

1. Bottom of the ninth, Looper pitching, Giambi singled to deep right, Martinez and Rodriguez scored, Matsui to third. P Value = 0.745
2. Bottom of the ninth, Looper pitching, Matsui intentionally walked. P Value = 0.732
3. Bottom of the ninth, Looper pitching, Rodriguez doubled to left, Martinez to third. P Value = 0.349
4. Bottom of the sixth, Benson pitching, Cano reached on fielder’s choice to second, Sheffield scored, Rodriguez to third, Giambi out at second. P Value = 0.269
5. Bottom of the sixth, Benson pitching, Matsui flied out to left. P Value = 0.259

A general rule of thumb when reading the Win Probability/P Value charts is that when the red line increases at the same time the blue line drops, the Mets are in trouble. Braden Looper found that out the hard way. How about a round of applause for what could be the lowest Win Probability Added we’ll see this season: A whopping -0.793.

The first six innings of the game followed a typical road team one run lead pattern. The Yankees’ highest WP from innings 3-5 came in the fourth inning when starter Kris Benson walked Hideki Matsui to put runners on first and second with one out. Giambi stepped up with a P critical value of 0.127, considered to be medium leverage as determined by Tangotiger’s Crucial Situations chart, and struck out. The play added 5.8% to the Mets’ chances of winning.

To start the bottom of the sixth, a ball took a nasty hop on David Wright, leading to an error and a decrease of exactly 6.0% in the Mets’ WP. A-Rod reached on an infield single and all of a sudden the Mets’ Win Probability had dropped from 0.602 at the start of the inning to 0.449 after two batters in the sixth. Matsui flied out in the aforementioned fifth most important at-bat of the game and then Cano followed with the fielder’s choice that tied up the game at ones in the fourth most critical at-bat of the contest.

Robinson Cano’s two out error in the seventh inning gave the Mets the 2-1 lead and added 18.6% to the Mets’ WP. Giambi’s two-run error that followed contributed another 20.4% to the Mets’ chances of victory as they took a three-run lead into the final three innings.

In all honesty, Aaron Heilman has done little to help his quest for higher leverage in the past week, and probably more harm than good. He got the ball in the seventh and proceeded to give up two runs and contribute a negative WPA of -0.135, as the second-worst Mets player of the game. Interestingly enough, the most important at-bat of the bottom of the seventh was Sierra’s in which he struck out with Birthday Boy Jeter on second, but A-Rod’s two-out RBI single picked up the slack and subtracted another 11.5% from the Mets’ WP.

Royce Ring (0.028 WPA) and Roberto Hernandez (0.103) were the two Met relievers with positive WPAs, but it wasn’t exactly a walk in the park for them either. Hernandez was the pitcher during the sixth and eighth most critical plate appearances of the game. He induced a line out from Bernie Williams and struck out Sierra with the bases loaded. Those two outcomes alone added a combined 31.5% to the Mets Win Probability.

The ninth inning went a little like so, with the Win Probability losses from each play attached and the leverage corresponding to Tangotiger’s Crucial Situation’s chart:

BOT NINTH

Martinez walked. -0.130 (High)
Rodriguez doubled to left, Martinez to third. -0.386 (Very high)
Matsui intentionally walked. -0.014 (Very high)
Giambi singled to deep right, Martinez and Rodriguez scored, Matsui to second. -0.262 (Very high)

Giambi’s at-bat may have been the most critical of the game, but A-Rod’s double goes down as the most important play of the game.

There were some positives on the Mets’ side of things. Marlon Anderson had perhaps his best game in years as he has seemingly snuck his way into the starting second baseman’s job for the next week or so. Going 1-for-3 with a run-scoring double, he also added around 2% with his defensive skills, making numerous sparkling plays in critical spots with men on base. He was the highest WPA for the Mets with 0.306. Reyes (0.139 WPA) is hitting better in crticial points with runners on base and added another two runs batted in.

All in all, the Mets take two of three from the Yankees in the Bronx, making it their most successful trip to Yankee Stadium ever. Can’t ask for much more than that.

Now back to some real National League baseball.

Footnote: Once again, an overview of Win Probability, Win Probability Added and P Critical Values can be found in Studes’ article, The One About Win Probability, over at The Hardball Times.