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June 27, 2005
Minor Talk
The All Star game is a collection of the game’s best and most brightest stars and it represents the unofficial halfway point of the season. Well, considering that many minor league seasons are reaching the end of the first half this week, what better way to bring you this week’s minor league recap than to select the Mets’ minor leaguers All Stars: 1. Dante Brinkley lf Yes, I know he’s 23 and in low A-ball, but my team needed a leadoff hitter, and well, who better than a guy with a 477 OBP? Brinkley did well during his first year as a professional in Kingsport after being selected in the 23rd round of the 2003 draft, and he managed a 396 OBP in the NYPL league, but struggled when he was promoted to the SAL. This year, as you can see above, he’s having no difficulties there. Considering the “production” of some of the St. Lucie Mets outfielders as well as his age, you’d expect Dante to be promoted sooner than later but I wouldn’t exactly hold my breath with the Mets organization. If I were to guess, I’d say Dante is going to be helping the Cyclones in that oh-so-important NYPL pennant race later in the year. By the way, while I’m talking about guys who are not exactly prospects but who are having good seasons, here’s a shout out to Derran Watts. 2. Jeff Keppinger 2b In a perfect world, Keppinger would be getting another chance to prove he’s the Mets 2nd baseman of the future right now. Unfortunately for him and the team, he got taken out by a Jason Kendall-like bush league play and now he’s out for at least a couple of months. Until that point, however, his season had been impeccable. Usually, when a guy hits for this high of average, one would assume he’s just getting lucky. The thing with Keppinger is that he has done it pretty much throughout his minor league career. In fact, his AVG has climbed as he’s advanced from level to level. Of course, that has come with a price. In the low minors, Keppinger hit for a lower average, but he also walked more and hit for better power. As he’s moved on, he’s exchanged those pesky walks for bat control a la Ichiro! And like him he’s hit for ridiculous high averages. Speaking of Keppinger’s bat control, just how good is it? Well, he had the best contact rate among major leaguers during his brief stay with the Mets last year. He only struck out 6% of the time. 3. Lastings Milledge cf Coming into the season, Milledge was considered by far the best position prospect in the farm system. After a couple of early injuries, he has done nothing to make us believe that’s not the case. His plate discipline isn’t great right now, but much improved. Word is it that he’s adjusted to breaking pitches and that his running game is coming around. Not only that, but it looks like he’s developed a Craig Biggio-like knack for getting HBPs. No wonder he’s injured so often. Hey, Lastings, wear some protection! In case you haven’t seen Milledge play, you can watch him during the All Star weekend in the Futures Games. I know I will. 4. Brett Harper 1b Free Brett Harper! Seriously, after crushing the FSL last year at the tune of 350/440/564, the son of former big leaguer Brian Harper is at it again. While last year, he hit for a ridiculously high average, this year Brett Harper is polishing his home run swing. Despite the fact he’s playing in arguably the toughest hitting league in the minor leagues (complete with ML size ballparks), he’s homered 20 times in only 227 ABs, or one HR every 11 ABs. it’s a complete joke that he’s not in AA right now. 5. Grant Psomas 3b Fact: Psomas has been one of the best hitters in the entire Met system during the first half of this year. Fact: Psomas has nothing else to prove in the SAL this year. Fact: Psomas is not exactly young for his league. I don’t think it takes a genius to know the logical consequence to these sentences. My complete misunderstanding of philosophy aside, Psomas should be promoted immediately. If not the FSL, where Bowman has finally awoken, why not AA? While its true that Bacani has done a good job, I don’t see the benefit of having someone just crush his league and remain there. At the very least, they should promote him to the FSL, and have him play 1b (I think you can see where I’m going with this one). 6. Mike Jacobs C Quietly, and I’m sure just to spite me, Mike Jacobs is again having a pretty good season at the AA level. The catcher/first baseman seems to have recovered from the injury that kept him from baseball fields for most of last year. Particularly impressive are his 14 HRs in 242 ABs or a HR every 17 ABs. With Daubach’s promotion to the major league level, promoting Jacobs to AAA (and Harper to AA) would have been an ideal scenario. Of course, the Mets signed Jose Awfulman instead. 7. Victor Diaz rf This is cheating, I know. Victor Diaz hasn’t spent much time in the minor leagues, but there’s no way I was putting Prentice Redman on this list. Anyway, after a ridiculously hot start, Victor Diaz through no fault of his own has slowed down a bit lately. You see, its pretty tough to get hot when you don’t get many ABs, and its tough to get any ABs when you are backing up gold glover Mike “400+ OBP” Cameron and Cliff “MVP” Floyd. I’m sure it’s a result of his spot in the lineup, but if he would get enough at-bats and maintains this current pace, Victor Diaz would get 72 walks in 498 Abs. How crazy is that? When was the last time the Mets had an OF who walked that many times? 8. Mike Carp DH I’m a TTO fan, but this is ridiculous. This year, Mike Carp has either walked, struck out or hit a home run in 51% of his ABs. Obviously considering that most of those are strikeouts, that’s not such a good thing. I think a pretty good comp for him right now is Shawn Bowman, and considering the third baseman’s start in the FSL, that’s not exactly a compliment. That being said, there are some things you just have to appreciate from Carp. Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he also walks a ton (113 IsoD) and more importantly he hits for a low of power. How much power? Well, almost half his hits have gone for extra-bases and his IsoP (237) its pretty ridiculous. 9. Anderson Hernandez ss A while back, I wrote that Anderson Hernandez’s high AVG wouldn’t last. At the time, he was hitting 326 and to me it was obvious that he was getting lucky. Anderson has gotten almost 100 Abs since then, he’s still batting 326. Rather than make myself look like a fool again, I’ll just admit defeat. That being said, I still believe the Mets should sell high when they can. 1. Brian Bannister sp Are 90 plus innings enough to make someone an elite prospect? I don’t think they are, but Bannister’s season so far is a pretty good start. Needless to say, Bannister has been fantastic in 2005. But here’s the thing, other than his hit rate, Bannister’s season is not that different from what he’s done in previous seasons. Obviously, this is coming against better competition and in a more hitter friendly park, but its nonetheless interesting. Stat 2005 Career Pre-AA H/9 7.06 8.21 7.9 K/9 8.03 7.89 8.5 bb/9 2.03 2.78 2.6 Either way, he’s having a great season. And as if this wasn’t enough, Bannister also has a very respectable 273 average to go with a 455 slugging percentage. 2. Yusmeiro Petit sp 7.4 K/BB. Yeah, its too bad Petit couldn’t handle those mean AA hitters. I’ll have an article with more on Petit tomorrow, til then, just know he’ll be representing the Mets in the Futures Game on July 10th. 3 Gabby Hernandez sp After a season in which he more strikeouts than base runners allowed, Gabby Hernandez came into the season ranked as the Mets 3rd best pitching prospect. This year, thanks to an improved changeup, he’s having yet another great season. In his last two outings, the 6-2 right-hander has thrown a no hitter, and led the Hagerstown Suns to the SAL championship. Oh yeah, Hernandez also has more strikeouts than base runners allowed. Not bad for a 19 year old in his 2nd professional season, huh? 4. Jae Seo sp Kaz Ishii is what we in the business call “fool’s gold.” Sure he has a nice game once in a while, but the truth is that he’s not consistent enough to be a good pitcher. I’m not saying that no one could him use (The Reds probably could..) but I think its pretty obvious that the Mets have better options. If you don’t think so, well, I don’t think I could make a better argument than the one made by Seo’s Super Secret Friend:
No argument from me. Jae should be in the major leagues helping the Mets win more games, or at the very least improve his trade value. Juan Padilla closer Padilla has been nothing short of spectacular in his sting with the Tides this year. He’s averaging 2 innings per appearance, he’s allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and he has a ridiculous 9.4 K/BB ratio. But of course, he’s not a Proven Veteran™ like Danny Graves. 11 Responses to “Minor Talk”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Nice break down - I think after this season the Mets minor league system is going to be viewed a much deeper than last year. I think there are four guys (Petit, Bannister, Hernandez, Humber)who will be above average major league starters (not counting Seo and soon to be added Pelfrey). Throw in a couple of decent position players, and we might have something.
A couple of comments -
Jacobs is becoming more a a 1B than a C. The problem is, his defense and fielding suck equally at each place. He is a DH waiting to happen who should be packaged in a trade to a AL team.
Harper probably would have been promoted already if he hadn’t been suspended for about three weeks for off field issues - he was in some kind of fight at the same pizza place as the dynamic duo of Spencer/Garcia - until he stays out of trouble, the organization isn’t sending him anywhere.
Also - can anyone please explain to me why Seo is still in AAA? I know Peterson doesn’t like him - but how can a team justify trotting Ishii out every five days when Seo has been spectacular since mid-April?
I’d agree that Mets pitching looks much deeper - and higher quality - than last year, but I think the fielders are still open to debate. Baseball America noted in their prospect guide of the top 15 Mets propects that everyone past three (or was it four?) could shoot way ahead or regress badly. HIll, Concepcion, Bowman, Turay and even Gomez have been average at best, plain bad otherwise. I wouldn’t write home about any other those guys.
As for Jacobs, it is clear he has a major league bat and according to Scott Lauber a lot of insecurity at first base. I expect that he’ll be plying his trade at Norfolk reasonably soon, but will his trade be first base or catcher? I hope they reconsider him as a catcher, only because we are going to be in the market for one in less than six months. And let’s face it, any catcher besides Piazza is going to be a defensive improvement! But first base is equally a good route to Shea at the moment. Jacobs is only going to get better.
Lastly, I don’t care how well Seo is pitching unless it gives us more of a return in a mid-season deal. I know he’s gained velocity back but I would not regret seeing him go.
Sounds like someone needs to shut down that pizza place… unless its just weeding out the bad seeds?
Concepcion, Hill, Turay, Bowman, and Gomez dug themselves into such big holes soo early in the season it’s looking less and less likely they are goign to turn it aorund to end up with a decent season and that’s very dissapointing.
Although I still like Gomez I think he’s only 20.
Also I’m dissapointed in Jesus Flores but I know that the injury he got in that exhibiton game is what’s bothering him. I want to see what Flores does not eyar being healthy because this season for him is a lost cause…
my comments:
Dante Brinkley - i’d expect to see him promoted yesterday. what is it with this organization and its frustrating habit of leaving guys at levels they have nothing left to prove? his age makes him a non-prospect at this point, but he’s got all the tools. a converted SS, he has good range in the OF and can play any one of the three OF positions. he’s a contact hitter who uses all fields with line drive power and modest power. he works a count, gets on base, has good small ball skills. he has above average speed and is a good basestealer. he projects as a 4th OFer with upside for more, but we’ll never know if we dont start moving him up aggressively. instead we waste atbats on guys who have proven they can’t hit AA pitching (jeff duncan, wayne lydon, angel pagan).
Jeff Keppinger - i don’t know i’d call his season impeccable. his walk rate and power are just average, but he’s managed to hit for BA consistently on every level. if he can hit .270 in the majors, he could be the next mark grudzielanek. and his uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball means power may come along eventually. he doesn’t look like a star, but he looks like an adequate minimum salaried starter.
Lastings Milledge - not counting on the HBP skills, so you want to see the walk rate come up a bit. but that’s nitpicking to some degree. the skills are there, and the power will come as he matures. what’s up with his terrible SB% though?
Brett Harper - i can’t look at his line without cringing. then i look at mike jacobs’ line and cringe more. with replacement talent offerman and daubach in the majors and non-prospect brazell on the DL, why are they still in leagues they put behind them already???
Grant Psomas - problem with promoting him is he’s blocked. we’re not ready to give up on bowman who needs atbats but isn’t ready for AA. could we really jump him 2 levels? this is only grant’s second professional season so i’m hesitant to say yes. he was drafted as a SS, though…could that be an option for now???
Victor Diaz - why is his slump no fault of his own? i know he hasn’t gotten consistent playing time, but still….
Mike carp - i still see a lefthanded david wright. like wright, he’s struggled to hit for consistent average low in the minors with hot/cold flashes worse than 55 year old woman. he’s still only 19 and that IsoD and IsoP make me drool. bowman has never hit for that kind of power or drew that many walks. it wouldn’t surprise me to see carp break out next year.
Anderson Garcia - i’m inclined to agree with you, but he strikes me as a potentially valuable utility guy.
Brian Bannister - i’m with you again. he was very good last year, although we needed to see him at higher competition before jumping to conclusions. hopefully he’ll get a chance at AAA before the season is out. im not seeing a star, but i think he could be a solid midrotation guy. for a few years at the league minimum that’s valuable.
Yusmeiro Petit - competing for my mancrush attention with mr. wright and mr. pedro.
Kaz Ishii - the reds? how about the dodgers? minaya needs to work the phones…he’s not reliable, but he would be an improvement in the 5th starter spot for a few teams. and we need to clear the room for seo right now.
Juan Padilla - probably is he’s an unproven veteran. but his ML numbers show some glimpses. no reason to think he couldn’t be an adequate 5th arm out of the pen right now. he’s injury insurnace. speaking of which…what’s up with orber moreno???
FREE MIKE JACOBS!!!
Why not bring him up to the bigs till Eyechart gets back? Daubach, Woodward, OFFERMAN!!! please I want to puke
I think after this season the Mets minor league system is going to be viewed a much deeper than last year.
The system has a newfound depth, but I don’t think its better than the one we had last year. Lets not forget that at this point last year we had Wright, Kazmir, Huber, Petit, and Milledge as our five best prospects (with Humber, Victor Diaz and Peterson on board). This is how I would breakdown the system right now:
Blue Chip Prospects: Milledge, Petit, Humber and Pelfrey.
These are guys who either shouldn’t be dealt, or should only be dealt for superstars. I don’t think the Mets should be actively trading them, but if the Reds offer you A. Dunn for Petit, you don’t say no.
Prospects: Keppinger, Bannister.
These are guys who project to be regulars in the major leagues. Personally, I think these are the guys who the Mets should be trying to make the central part of a trade for a superstar. I think Keppinger has a chance to be part of the Mets’ core at 2b, but I don’t see where Bannister fits in. Considering who the Mets have in front and behind him as well as his great season so far, I’d say he’s an excellent trading chip.
Spare Parts: Harper, Jacobs, Brinkley, Anderson Hernandez, Psomas, etc
These are guys who are having good seasons, but who are either too old for their league, don’t have an actual position, or whose trackrecord says this season is a fluke.
Projects: Carp, G. Hernandez.
These are guys who might be blue chip prospects in the future, but who right now are too far away. Consider them long-term investments.
Before anyone kills me, my position on trades is that you should only try to acquire superstars. Obviously, since there’s only a few of them, thats not always going to be the case. In that case, you should go for guys who are undervalued (preferably if they are pre-arb). Right now, I see three areas of need for the Mets: The bullpen, catcher, and first base.
1. Bullpen: Unless you are on the verge of making the postseason, you should never trade for relievers who are making a lot of money (or are “Proven”) because they are going to cost you a LOT in terms of prospects. Considering that’s certainly not the case here, I think the Mets should take their lumps with the kids and see what they have. Looper’s debacle last night notwithstanding, I think the bullpen has performed well and I expect that to continue. For next year, I think they should try to get an elite closer, but if none are available or are too expensive, get as many flamethrowers with good control as you can, and hope one of them is the next Joe Nathan. Let Looper walk, but offer him arbitration.
2. Catcher. We’re good right now, so this is for next year. Basically, the FA market is Piazza, and Ramon Hernandez. My guess is that the Mets are going after Hernandez, but considering that Piazza has the higher OPS (he leads the NL) right now and that he’ll command a hefty salary, I’m not sure that’s a good idea. I don’t really have an idea of what to do here. Thinking outloud: I would offer Piazza arbitration (the 80% rule doesn’t apply) and see what are his thoughts on coming back for one more year (at a discount, of course). If he says he’s going to the DH or retiring, I’d go hard after Hernandez and hope he doesn’t come that expensive. Then I’d pair him with Jacobs and hope his defense makes up for the offense.
3. First base. Okay. We need a short and long-term answer here. My first target would obvioulsy be Dunn. If he’s available, the Mets should get him. I’m hoping a Bannister/Heilman package could get it done, but I doubt it. I’d have no problem giving Petit for him, but even then I don’t think the Reds are trading him. Next up is Overbay. I like him, but I’m not sure I’d trade Petit for him. I probably would, but not before checking to see if Casey Kotchman, Aubrey Huff (root against him) or Ryan Howard are available.
You know which pitcher has been under the radar for a while now but is putting together quite a season? Evan MacLane. He’s my sleeper prospect. And he’s a lefty to balance out all those power righties we have.
Ricardo - I agree with your classification of our minor league players nearly 100% - I think you are right on the money - the only difference is - even though he is young - I would classify Hernandez as a blue chip prospect who you only trade for premium talent.
For me, the jury is out on Bannister until I see some good numbers at Norfolk - then I am a believer.
The reason I would classify our system as deeper than last year’s (meaning this past off season’s rating) is that coming into this year we had only two top 100 prospects - by the end of this year we could have up to six - Petit, Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey, Bannister and Hernandez - if things break right; i.e. promotions and continued performance from Bannister and Hernandez and signing Pelfrey by the fall.
Throw in Anderson Hernandez, Jacobs, et al and we are much better and deeper than was anticipated.
I like that breakdown I am really high on Jeff Keppinger and as soon as he returns from his injury he should be up in the majors. I still think Mike Jacobs should get another shot at catching, you can always find a spot on your team for a guy with a good bat. The one obvious glaring hole of the Mets Farm System is lack of consistent, patient bats, this NEEDS to be addressed in the next few drafts. With the number of pitchers in the system though (Petit, Humber, Pelfrey*, Seo, Bannister, Hernandez) a trade should be made to secure one of those much needed bats