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May 3, 2005
Fun With Game Scores
The statistic “Game Scores”, created by Bill James, is really a toy… a nice way to attempt to measure how a pitcher fared in a certain game. Still, inspired by work done by Met blogger Avkash Patel, I got into using game scores as a way to at least look at how consistent a pitcher’s performance is. First, here is an explanation of how game scores are figured out…
So, using game scores, I decided to take a look at how the Mets pitchers are faring so far this season, especially since many are awaiting Kris Benson’s (and Steve Trachsel’s) return anxiously. First, here is the distribution of game scores in intervals of 10 for the Mets first 25 starts, which is the first 5 times through the rotation… Below 20- 2 20-29- 2 30-39- 2 40-49- 4 50-59- 5 60-69- 3 70-79- 5 Above 80- 2 As you can tell, it’s pretty normal, except for that 5 in the 70’s range, which is a good sign (the 5 in the 70’s, not the fact that its pretty normal). But here is a simpler and more concise way to look at it, explained by Avkash himself…
Using that methodology, here is the Mets rotation… Less than 40- 6, 24% Between 40-60- 9, 36% 60 and Above- 10, 40% As you can tell, the Mets have done very well in getting “dominant” starts, having one 40% of the time. The problem? They have also had a terrible start one out of about every 4 starts. Here is the Mets record in games in each catergory. Less than 40- 0-6 Between 40-60- 3-6 60 and Above- 9-1 As expected, the Mets have done extremely well in the “dominant” starts and badly in the below average starts. Of course, they are also 3-6 in the average starts, which isn’t a particulary good sign. The problem with the above though is that it includes Pedro’s starts, yet still doesn’t really look very good. And considering most Met fans are worrying about the Mets rotation because of the 2-5 spots and not the 1 spot, let’s see what the game scores look like without Pedro’s contribution. First, here are Pedro’s game scores, just to show you what we are taking out… Pedro's Game Scores- 64, 87, 71, 75, 53 Now, the rest of the rotation, without Pedro… Less than 40- 6, 30% Between 40-60- 8, 40% 60 and Above- 6, 30% The Mets still get an above average start 30% of the time, but unfortunately, they have also gotten a below average start 30% of the time from the 2-5 spots so far this year, which well, just won’t cut it. Here are the Mets’ records in these games… Less than 40- 0-6 Between 40-60- 3-5 60 and Above- 6-0 Once again, not a shock, though you’ll notice all three wins are still in the average slot from above, two of them thanks to Mr. Victor Zambrano (one game was a 4-3 win over Houston, the other was the 16-4, 7 HR blowout in Philly) and the other thanks to the 9th inning rally the Mets had in Washington Sunday night. As you can tell from above, the need for Kris Benson and Steve Trachsel is huge, as the Mets need more consistent production from the 2-5 spots instead of the up and down mess they are getting now. Luckily, Kris Benson is back soon, but that still leaves the Mets with two of the mess of Heilman, Seo, Ishii (when he comes off the DL) and Zambrano until Trachsel comes back in July at the earliest. And let’s not even talk about where Glavine is right now… 17 Responses to “Fun With Game Scores”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. Minor Talk »» |
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What’s sad is that even though Tampa Bay probably promoted him too soon, if Kazmir was in the Mets’ rotation right now, he’d be their second-best starter - and he’d be doing it at a cost of $315,000.
Game scores remind me of QB ratings - great for GM’s, but strange fruit for regular fans.
Do you know what the -40, 40-60, and 60+ breakdown is for playoff teams? Is there a number (say, 20% of -40 games, or 35% 60+games) that a rotation should achieve over 162?
And, how does this work for bullpens? All the 60+ games in the world mean little if you have a weak pen.
Good stuff Jeremy. Who’d have though Heilman would be 2nd in “dominant starts” in 2005? Not me, that’s for sure.
Number Six, why must you bring up painful memories? His slider looked nasty and his fastball pounds the zone last night. His arm angle makes it impossible for lefties to hit a fastball on the outside corner of the plate the way it moves off the play down & away. The kid will be good. That arm is electric.
IanB,
The point about what percent levels teams need to be successful is a very good point and something I think I would like to look into, especially if I continue this series for every set of 25 starts like I think I might. It’ll take some time to look into though…
Also, obviously pens have a factor, but its blatantly obvious that the Mets have not gotten the production from the back of the rotation, but at the same time, this does prove there have been some bright games.
Also, just as a note, Vic’s game score last Saturday was 43. I almost took writer’s liberty and stuck it in the below average games where it belonged, but I decided against that. So, imagine, its actually more like 35%, 35%, 30%…
So, always do remember, this is just a statistical toy, but I think a fun one to look at that does have its uses
game score is a great rule of thumb, but by no means any “sabermetric” measure. its never been correlatd to anything, and one of james’ primary motivations was to calculate it entirely off what appears in a simple boxscore….which means pitchers dont lose points for, say, a HBP. it definitely weighs strikeouts very heavily, and it’s why kerry wood’s 20k game is the single best game score of all time and nolan ryan’s no hitters are all over the top 10 (hence the nickname “ryanacity”.
espn keeps game score, so you could easily look at the game logs and figure out how teams constructed their rotations last year…but i’m not sure it’d be very helpful. BP just ran an article about the disparate ways teams constructed their staffs on the route to success–top heavy rotation, deep rotation, deep bullpen. there is no magic formula…the goal is just to limit the other team to as many runs as possible. you can go .500 with two guys in the high 50’s or .500 with a guy in the 20’s and a guy in 80’s.
but if you are looking for metrics, a 50 would be an average start. one start in 300 reaches a score of 90 or better. once you’re approaching 100, you’re talking all time classic.
Jeremy,
Thanks. I think Neyer wrote something about teams winning 1/3 of their games outright and losing 1/3, but the winners and losers are determined in the middle 1/3. The 40-60 gamescore performances may be a good indication for where those middle performances are. If the Mets keep playing 3-5 ball in those games, we are in for a long season, but if, in the next 25 games, they start playing 5-3 ball, there may be reason to be hopeful.
–
Do you know of a very good statistical measuring stick for relievers? I find that ERA is not the most telling (what does 3.50 mean when I guy pitches one innning at a time? How different is it from 4.50?)
I’ve often wondered if runs-per-outing/inning ( (ER/Innings pitched) / (games pitched) ) would work for non-starting pitchers. Of course, that’s not giving you the same outcome as gamescores, so I don’t know how useful it is.
Ian, for relievers I like to look at inherited runners scored as partial success indicator. It is by no means the entire picture, but it’s part of it.
Part of their job is come in an mop up sticky situations.
If Stanton comes in with the bases loaded allows all runs to score, the still has a 0.00 ERA.
Do you know of a very good statistical measuring stick for relievers?
BP easures expected runs and expected runs added and also isolates inherired/bequeathed runner stats.
Even more fun with game scores:
Tom Glavine’s game score for tonight’s game:
50 + 11 batters retired * 1
+ 0 innings completed beyond 4th inning * 2
+ 1 strikeout * 1
- 6 hits allowed * 2
- 7 earned runs * 4
- 1 unearned run * 2
- 6 walks * 1
===============================================
Game score = 14
Actually, I’m surprised he didn’t have a negative game score.
Hey, he beat his game score of 9 last time out against the Braves!
Lord knows he had a negative score in my book.
Actually, I just calculated his game score for his last start against the Braves, and he actually had a higher score than last night (19). What is somewhat interesting is that with last night’s start, Glavine now has a Victor Zambrano-esque WHIP of 1.99 (albeit with a higher ERA).
So, do the Mets just keep running Glavine out there to get shelled every fifth day, or id there some other option that I’m not seeing? His trade value is non-existant, and there’s no way he’d accept a demotion to mop-up long relief. If you’d have told me before the season that Heilman was going to be the Mets second best starter, I’d have probably figured the Mets would be alot worse than 12-13.
I suspect that for now they’ll leave Glavine in the rotation (especially since the rotation has other problems), but if the time comes to demote him to the bullpen, does he really have any say in the matter? It’s in the Mets’ best interests to avoid having the option on the fourth year vest, especially since the money that would go to Glavine could be used to go after a legitimate #2 starter (e.g. A.J. Burnett).
I wonder if his contract would allow the Mets to release him. If so, then at some point during the season they perhaps should consider this option. Perhaps it is best that they admit their mistake and move on, even if it is a mistake made 2 GMs ago (the Phillips regime). Even the Red Sox released BH Kim, and Epstein took full responsibility, so it’s not unreasonable to think that this big-market team should cut its losses and move on. [Of course, the sad thing about all of this is that the Mets could have gotten a king's ransom for Glavine if they had moved him at the trading deadline last year. Instead, they decided to trade away 3 of their top 6 prospects in a futile attempt to make the postseason.]
I wonder if his contract would allow the Mets to release him.
sure it will…but the union’ll fight it tooth and nail.
…But does the union have a leg to stand on? The Mets would still have to pay him the remainder of what’s owed him for the third year of his contract (minus the major league minimum, if another team signs him). Beyond that, what exactly do the Mets owe him? By releasing him, the team would virtually guarantee that his fourth year option wouldn’t vest, but the Mets aren’t obligated to allow him to pitch the number of innings needed for the option to vest - if they are, then why not just guarantee him the fourth year? This isn’t an A-Rod type situation where the player is offering to take a pay cut in order to facillitate a trade.
[...] ’s start with the distribution, in intervals of 10 (You can find Part 1 (Games 1-25) here). Below 20- 2 20-29- 0 30-39- 2 40-49- 6 50-59- 5 60-69- 6 70-79- 2 A [...]