Coming off of a 5-1 homestand, the Mets roll into Philadelphia on Monday with a lot more confidence than they had a week ago, particularly in the starting pitching department. The National League East is a scrum for second place, with the upstart Washington Nationals pacing the rest of the division by a couple of games. The Mets know if they stand any chance of pulling away from the pack they are going to have to rack up victories against the rest of their division. The Mets went 8-11 against the Phillies in 2004, including 5-5 at Citizen’s Bank Park, which will be the setting of their next two games. The Phillies don’t have particularly strong starting pitching, and the Mets will be facing their two-three punch of mediocrity in Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla.

Game 1: Randy Wolf

What’s the Story? After back-to-back solid seasons in 2001 and 2002 (ERA+ of 116 and 118), Wolf slipped a bit the past two season, putting up league-average numbers (ERA+ of 97 and 102, respectively). Of particular note are Wolf’s strikeout rates, which dropped from a career-high of 8.39 K/9 in 2001 to a pedestrian 5.86 K/9 in 2004. Wolf is off to a rough start this season, allowing eight runs in his first 12.0 innings pitched, though his strikeout rate is up a bit (8.25 K/9). Both figures are drawn from a very small sample size, so it’s tough to get too excited or upset just yet. He’s apparently been called a poor man’s Tom Glavine, though I guess that comparison applies to any soft-tossing lefty. Wolf features a high-80’s/low-90’s fastball and a big curveball that he uses in tandem to get hitters out, albeit not very effectively. He also throws a changeup.

Last Year: The Mets faced Randy Wolf twice in 2004 and didn’t fare particularly well either time. They managed to plate only three runs in 13.0 total innings, though they won the first of the two games on two unlikely homeruns by Todd Zeile, one in the 8th inning and the other in the 10th.

What to Expect: If we see the Kaz Ishii from his last start (or the middle innings of his first start), AND the Mets start hitting a bit, they could win this one handily. Ishii will benefit somewhat from facing same-side middle-of-the-order threats like Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu, though Pat Burrell can probably be counted on to hit his typical five homeruns when he faces the Mets.

Game 2: Vicente Padilla

What’s the Story? Padilla is another decent yet unspectacular pitcher with pretty good control. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters (6.02 K/9 for his career), but he keeps the walks down and doesn’t give up too many longballs. Padilla is coming off of a triceps injury that landed him on the DL to start the season, so he’ll be making his first start of 2005 against the Mets on Tuesday. According to his ESPN.com scouting report, he “…remains stuck between potential and production.” He sports a very straight-forward fastball without much movement, a good slider, and an average changeup.

Last Year: Padilla faced the Mets once in 2004, allowing four hits and one walk over 6.2 innings while keeping the Mets off the scoreboard. The Phillies would eventually win that game 4-2, with Padilla putting up a solid game score of 70.

What to Expect: Victor Zambrano gets the nod in this matchup that could get ugly early. If Zambrano can’t get the ball over the plate consistently (which to this point in his career he hasn’t), the Phillies could score a lot of runs. With Thome, Abreu, and Burrell in the middle of the order, this is a team that can and will draw a lot of walks if the opposing pitcher isn’t controlling the strike zone. Even David Bell draws his fair share of walks. Padilla isn’t very good and his making his 2005 debut, so the Mets hitters should try to jump on him early. This game is in Zambrano’s hands, though. If he pitches well, the Mets will win. If he pitches poorly (aka normally), the Mets will lose this one.

Overall: The Mets have an even-or-better shot at going 1-1 in this series. I will be very disappointed if they get swept, though not entirely surprised. Likewise, they could very easily take both games. I’ll say 1-1.

Predicted Record: 6-6
Actual Record: 6-6