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March 29, 2005
Trickle Down Theory
The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base. -Bill James I think we all know the importance of getting on base. The basic idea is that you need to score more runs than your opponent to win the game, big surprise there. In order to score runs, you want the top of the order to get on for your meat of the order. When 3-4-5 comes up, you want some ducks on the pond so they can do what they get paid to do - drive in runs. As an exercise, I took the players who were in the #1 and #2 spots of every Major League team the majority of the time and compared them, as well as just isolating out leadoff batter/batters for each team. So, how did the Mets do? Not surprisingly, the Mets were bad, and I do not mean bad as in near the bottom, I mean the bottom. The players that they had in the #1 and #2 spots in the order the majority of the time did worse than the top two on every single team in the Major League. Kaz Matsui spent 244 at-bats in the #1 spot, 206 at-bats in the #2 spot, Jose Reyes spent 194 at-bats in the #1 spot, 23 at-bats in the #2 spot, and Todd Zeile spent 146 at-bats in the #2 spot. Together, in 813 at-bats, they got on base at a .309 clip. That’s horrible. That’s beyond horrible. It’s actually a miracle they managed to hang in the NL East race until the trading deadline. When you enter in every Met in 2004 with at least ten at-bats between the #1 and #2 spots in the order, you have a .250/.306/.376 line. When you isolate Kazuo Matsui and Jose Reyes, the two players slated to occupy the #1 and #2 spot in 2005, they put up a .269/.316/.390 line. That is not the way to win ballgames. In fact, there is no way the Mets have a shot at the division or the playoffs with paltry numbers like that. Good pitching or not, the team’s chances in 2005 start at the top. When you look at the entire Major League, the top ten teams in OBP have a combined 856-764 record, which is good for a .528 win %. Only three of those teams had a losing record, and two were only a combined eight wins under .500 with the other being the Mariners who were aided by Ichiro’s .411 OBP. Teams eleven through twenty in OBP posted a slightly sub .500 record with a 807-811 record, which was good for a .499 win %. Teams twenty-one through thirty in OBP posted a 765-853 record, which was good for a .473 win %. When you look at the NL only, the bottom half in OBP posted a 611-684 record, which was good for a .472 win %, and the top half of the NL in OBP posted a 683-612 record, which was good for a .527 win %. When you isolate just the main leadoff hitter/hitters for every team, twenty teams had above a .340 OBP%. Fourteen of those twenty teams had a winning record and all twenty over .340 combined for a .531 win %. Out of the ten teams that had a sub .340 OBP, only two had winning records and all ten combined for a .438 win %. The Met players who batted leadoff in 2004 combined for a .240/.291/.371 line. If 2005 is a repeat performance of that line or something close to that, the Mets will be in big trouble getting their offense going. I’m sure nobody needed me to go through all this trouble to tell them that and I’m sure common sense would prevail and people could surmise those results from teams that lack the ability to have the table setters get on base for the middle of the order. Willie Randolph would be foolish not to let Jose and Kaz start the season at the top of the order. However, Reyes has a career OBP of .307 and that is of paramount concern as they head into opening day. I’m as big a Reyes fan as there is. In fact, he is my favorite player to watch out of all the current Mets. However, he needs to be on a short leash this season. The Mets need to get off to a fast start and they need to get ahead in their division. If Reyes does not show improvement to start the season, there are other options. The kid does not even turn 22 until June of this upcoming season and being that he is so young, there is no harm in dropping him down in the order until he learns the art of taking pitches and getting on base via gifts from the opposing pitcher. If he can ever get on base at a .350 clip, he will be dangerous. He will be a catalyst for the entire ball club and I think he will get there, but when is the question. Currently, in 600 at-bats, Reyes needs to bat .326 to get on base at a .350 clip at his current walk rate or one every .035 plate appearances. If he is hovering around .290, which is not bad at all, and walks 21 times in 600 at-bats, he’ll have a .315 OBP and the Mets will not be in first or second place. Last season, the Mets simply did not have enough guys on base and they lived and died by the long ball. They were 15th in homers out of the entire majors and they were 8th in the NL. Yet they were 12th in the NL in runs scored and 26th overall in the Major Leagues. The problem is a pervasive one that will need to be improved upon if there will be success in 2005. How many more wins do you think the Mets would have notched if their table setters got on at a .340 clip? The Mets had twenty four one-run losses and twenty four two-run loses. More than half of their losses were by two runs or less. That little bit of spark could be something that really propels this team from being a mediocre one taking one more building step to a legitimate team with a shot at the closely packed NL East. So what’s the solution? Kaz will never be atop the league in walks, but he has the ability to get on base close to a .350 clip. He saw 3.97 pitches per plate appearance in 2004 compared to Jose Reyes’ 3.52 P/PA. The difference seems small enough, but it’s a big difference over the long haul and is a telltale sign of how hard you work the pitchers. Over a season with 600 at-bats, that is 270 more pitches that Kaz would make pitchers throw when compared to Reyes. In the 600 at bats and Kaz’s current walk rate, he would need to hit .290 to have a .344 OBP. In regards to Kaz’s splits in the #1 hole as opposed to the #2 hole, I’m well aware that Kaz put up .234/.311/.361 in the #1 spot and .311/.355/.432 in the #2 spot, but we cannot forget he knocked five leadoff homers in 2004, which set a Met record. Also, his poor performance at the top of the order could have been the result of a few contributing factors as well. He was just starting his career in America and was still adjusting and it also probably had a lot to do with who was behind him, which leads me to the next piece of the puzzle. In 2002, 2003, and part of 2004, David Wright walked 203 times in 1299 at-bats, or once every 6.4 at-bats in the minor leagues. He posted an OBP of .387 compared to a .287 BA and has the ability to get on base at solid clip. His numbers did not translate into the majors, but that can be expected from a 21-year-old and there are few people doubting that he will drastically improve in this area. I think he will be pushing a .400 OBP as he gets more seasoned in the big leagues. Throw on top the fact that he can steal a base or two and he could be what the Mets need to spark this team. He stole 62 bases in 362 games in the minors and is not a speedster, but an intelligent base runner that is not a base clogger. I know there will be people that think that having Wright in that spot is somewhat of a waste of his power and his RBI abilities, however, last year in the playoffs, we saw a collection of #2 hitters that we have never seen before. Alex Rodriguez, Larry Walker, and Carlos Beltran all occupied the #2 spot and Walker and Rodriguez should be in that same spot again this upcoming season. I think the Mets have the chance of having a deep enough lineup that it makes a lot of sense. If one was to get the most out of the current lineup, it may look like this: 1) Kaz Matsui Kaz had a year of adjustment and would have solid hitter behind him providing protection and that could translate into big numbers from the leadoff spot for Kaz. Wright will have one of the best all around players in the game behind him and plenty of pitches to see and plenty to hit very, very far. You would be hard pressed to show me one Met player that would benefit more from batting in front of Carlos. Beltran should have people on base forcing pitchers to pitch to him with Mike Piazza looming behind him. I’ve written why Piazza is a good bet to produce early before, and with people on base, he should provide good protection for Beltran and he should be productive. A healthy Floyd should be a productive Floyd and a solid #5 guy and he looks to be healthy so far. Cameron is in the spot in the order he needs to be. Jose has less pressure on him and should see some good pitches with plenty of guys on base in front of him and have the opportunity to work on his patience. Reyes’ speed will also not be laid to waste as he could steal bases to advance into scoring position with a solid hitter behind him to pick him up. Douggie has the plate discipline to bat 8th and will make the pitchers work while having plenty of chances to pick the team up drive in a few runs with Floyd, Cameron, and Reyes sitting in the three spots in front of him. For now, if Floyd and Piazza are healthy and until Reyes has some time to season himself and become the player everyone knows he can be, this may be the best way to extract as much production to start off 2005. On paper, it looks pretty good to me. 22 Responses to “Trickle Down Theory”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Kaz put up .234/.311/.361 in the #1 spot and .311/.355/.432 in the #2 spot,
Actually, this could demonstrate that Matsui was better out of the leadoff spot.
#1
IsoD: .077
IsoP: .127
#2
IsoD: .044
IsoP: .121
The only thing weighing him down was then the rate at which an AB turned into a hit; he hit more often out of the #2 slot, but his hits were more powerful and his plate appearances more disciplined out of the #1 slot.
Interesting.
I hope Matsui will have a better year this year. I watched a lot of Yankees last year and I thought that Miguel Cairo did a superb job at second base. I can’t think of any aspect of his game that was inferior to Matsui’s. Better offensive numbers and less errors on defense. His spring training also seems to going better. I realize that Kaz is being paid too much money to be a backup, but I wonder Cairo doesn’t really deserve to start at second? (I’m not anti-Kaz, it just seems that Cairo is objectively better.)
Yeah, last year Cairo was better. But judging career wise, Miguel won’t do that every year. I love him as insurance, but the Yankee lineup has a knack for helping everyone else’s numbers out. The lineup is stacked and provides protection for everyone. He does not hit many XBHs either or will not steal as many bases. Cairo only topped 30 XBHs once. Kaz was a double machine and had over 40 XBHs in 114 games. I do not think there is any doubt Kaz has talent and is worlds better than Cairo when he is producing.
Kaz stealing 20+ bases, hitting 40+ doubles, 10+ homers, and batting over .290 is not out of the question. I expect big things for him if his back can hold up.
Outstanding article, well thought out. This Mets line up, if healthy, appears poised to be every bit as good as the 1999 version. (Cedeno’s pre-fat ass days.)
Nice article, Oliver. Well thought out.
I sometimes think batting Mientkiewicz leadoff with Kaz and Reyes 7th and 8th would be best. Aside from pushing the OBP toward the top of the lineup, the speed at the bottom would offer some chances to manufacture runs with the pitcher’s spot up.
Regardless, I really like the idea of Wright in the #2 hole wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see him there at some point this season.
Excellent post Mike. Wright may well be in the 2 hole very quickly. Reyes had an amazing winter and his spring has been pretty good too. He hit a triple the other day that could easily have been an inside homer. PLEASE STAY HEALTHY!!!!!
1999? I’ll take that. Mets scored 800 runs back in 2000 ant almost smacked 200 homers. I’ll take that. That is about as good as it gets in this park.
Mienky could bat #1 or #2, but I hate to waste speed in the eight spot. At least with speed in the 7th spot, someone can pick him up in the 8th spot.
I think Reyes will be healthy…I mean he cannot go down again…right?….right?
Well, if some of Wright’s skills are wasted in the # 2 slot (and there is something to that notion), then what do we say about Randolph’s apparent decision to bat him 8th??? While I’m confident he will force his way to a spot in the order more in keeping with his production, starting him off 8th is just lunacy, and will cost the Mets runs. It’s Randolph’s first really bad decision, and it’s a doozy.
Couldn’t agree more, by the way, about the wisdom of starting the season with Reyes/Matsui at the top of the order . . . and also about the need to be ready to move Reyes relatively quickly if he just isn’t getting on base enough.
I agree that this is one of the Mets’ Achilles heels this year. Maybe THE Achilles’ heel of the team?
But why not bat Mientkiewicz second? He’s a veteran high-OBP guy whose power lags Wright’s (I think; not sure), and who may well have a better OBP, at least in 2005. As a veteran, he might be able to handle the move better as well.
Sam, in a strong lineup, the #2 guy can be a Wright type player. Walker and A-Rod are there and Beltran has been there..even for the Royals.
I just think that type of protection would benefit him more than anyone. There are few ways to make this lineup work, and none of them have Wright in the 8th spot.
Mienky could definitely slot there. If you are not going to bat Mienky 8th and Willie is married to Wright in the 8th spot to start, it works. However, I still think Matsui and Reyes should get every opporuntity, but they have to be realistic with Reyes and how fast he can come along and be that guy.
Didn’t the Mets’ hit more HRs last year than they did in 1999? Either way, there’s absolutely NO WAY this team will score as many runs as the 1999 team. No way.
Yeah, the hit more than in 99, but not more runs. They lived and died by the long ball. I think 2000 was a high in terms of homers by the Mets by the team and they scored over 800 runs. I’m hoping for 750 this season. I think it can happen if the top 2 can get on base at a .335 clip.
From this week’s SI article on leadoff men…
“Former New York Mets manager Art Howe made such misguided choices last year that his leadoff hitters had a worse on-base percentage (.291) than every other spot in the lineup except ninth, the pitcher’s place. In other words, he was giving his worst every-day hitters the most turns at bat.”
I think if it is evident a month in that Reyes has not improved his OBP, and Mientkiewicz is experiencing a regression to his mean, then Doug should probably move up in the batting order.
Wright is perfect for the number two slot. He gets on base, hits doubles, steals a few bases and would score tons of runs. Randolph needs to think outside of the box and get rid of the old line of moving the runner. The past 10-15 years have shown that you score more runs by going for the big inning instead of playing for one run. It’s time for the Mets to get with the times.
I believe a better alternative after a couple of weeks would be switching Kaz and Wright. Assuming Reyes gets on base more often.
I’d definitely like to see Minky in the 1 or 2 hole. Odd that Randolph wants to bat Wright 8th, which sounds like hazing the young guy to me, but bat Reyes leadoff, when Reyes is younger, more raw and barely has more major league time than Wright.
I like Wright 5th or 6th. Speed is good in the 8 hole because Reyes can be bunted over. Whereas it’s wasted hitting ahead of Cameron, who rarely hits singles.
I do hope Willie shows some flexibility in his choices, should they prove to be wrong. And I agree that if Matsui and Reyes don’t improve their OBP, they should be moved down in the lineup.
I’d like to make a few changes. I think Kaz’s July stats show he has the power to hit further down in the lineup, and that Wright’s talent demands a better platform. Minky’s sole outstanding skill is OBP, so he should be hitting at the top. Cameron’s stats were ruined when Howe wouldn’t take him out of the lineup when his finger was messed up and he couldn’t hit at all; his OBP shouldn’t be that bad this year. And I continue to worry about the pending collapse of Mike Piazza, he of the .615 OPS in the second half last year. (Even the season-long .806 doesn’t merit the 4-slot, IMO.)
So, I’d do something like this:
1-Jose Reyes
2-Doug Mientkiewicz
3-Carlos Beltran
4-David Wright
5-Cliff Floyd
6-Kaz Matsui
7-Mike Piazza
8-Mike Cameron
If Piazza performs like others think he will, he can move up. If he performs like *I* think he will, he can move down.
Sorry Dan, but that’s ridiculous. I see what you’re driving at with Piazza (although I think you’re wrong) but it doesn’t matter. In the real world, you cannot start the season with Piazza hitting 7th in the lineup. I don’t care if you like it or not, but those are the realities of dealing with actual people, not a pile of numbers.
Also, you feel that Piazza hasn’t earned the #4 spot yet somehow Wright has? Look, I’m as big a Wright fan as anyone here but that’s just silly. Again, these are real people here. Why in the world would you, in a season that probably will be a developing year anyway, put a young franchise cornerstone in such a pressure spot in the lineup.
I’ve wasted too much time wondering why so many Met fans are so down on Cameron but suffice it so say it’s a little odd that you think Wright doesn’ belong in the 8 hole yet a guy who with 30/30 potential does. Crazy.
Mienky should be in the bottom of the order. I’m not sold on him yet. He could hit .300 or he could hit .260. He’s no sure thing. Although, I guess who is at this point?
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